Zohran Mamdani has emerged as the front-runner in the New York City mayoral race, buoyed by his focus on affordability and housing, according to a recent New York Times/Siena College survey. The Democratic nominee currently holds 46% support among likely voters in a four-way race.
Cuomo, Sliwa, and Adams lag behind
Former Governor Andrew Cuomo, running as an independent after losing the Democratic primary, trails with 24% support. Republican Curtis Sliwa polls at 15%, while incumbent Mayor Eric Adams receives just 9% in the survey, reflecting widespread dissatisfaction and ongoing scandal allegations.
The survey highlights that if both Adams and Sliwa withdrew, Mamdani’s lead could be narrowed, particularly benefiting Cuomo in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup. In such a scenario, Cuomo could capture many of Adams’ and Sliwa’s supporters, creating a tight race with Mamdani at 48% and Cuomo at 44%.
Mamdani’s appeal and strengths
The poll suggests Mamdani’s popularity is driven by his perceived ability to tackle pressing issues such as housing affordability. Around 60% of likely voters view him as inspirational, possessing good character, and caring for ordinary New Yorkers. He holds a broad base across racial and ethnic groups, leading among Hispanic voters and narrowly ahead of Cuomo among Black voters.
Mamdani’s proposal to freeze increases on rent-stabilized units is particularly popular, receiving nearly 70% support, including from some Cuomo and Adams backers. His stance on taxing wealthy New Yorkers also enjoys broad approval.
Foreign policy and controversial positions
The survey found Mamdani leading on foreign policy, with 43% of voters favoring his approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, compared to 16% for Cuomo. Mamdani has been outspoken on Palestinian rights, while Cuomo remains a strong supporter of Israel.
Challenges and vulnerabilities
Despite his lead, Mamdani faces skepticism over his experience. About two-thirds of voters, including half of his supporters, doubt he can deliver all of his ambitious campaign promises. His Democratic Socialist affiliation divides voters, with 37% seeing it positively, 32% negatively, and 26% neutral. Proposals like making buses free for all also face mixed support.
Cuomo’s strategy and opportunities
Cuomo has taken a more aggressive approach in recent weeks, framing Mamdani as inexperienced and ideologically extreme. His past governorship is seen positively by 57% of likely voters in terms of effectiveness. Cuomo’s policies on rent-stabilized apartments and hiring 5,000 additional police officers receive broad support, even from some Mamdani backers.
Adams and Sliwa struggle
Mayor Adams faces historic unpopularity, with nearly 50% of New Yorkers saying they would never support him. Sliwa, while perceived as having good character, struggles to gain traction in a heavily Democratic city.
Poll methodology
The Times/Siena College survey was conducted among 1,284 likely NYC voters from September 2 to September 6, 2025, using telephone and text interviews. Calls were made to over 81,000 voters, with demographic weighting applied to ensure accurate representation. The margin of error for likely voters is ±3.6 percentage points.
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