The Phillies announced on Saturday afternoon that their ace was diagnosed with venous thoracic outlet syndrome (TOS) and will undergo thoracic outlet decompression surgery in the coming weeks.
The expected timeline for recovery is six to eight months.
“He’ll miss this season, but then we figure that he’ll come back in the 6-8 month time period and be the Zack Wheeler of old,” president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said. “That’s what we’ve been told. Unless something unanticipated happens, he’ll be able to come back and pitch like he has before this.”
The type of TOS is an important distinction.
Wheeler has a form of venous TOS that came on suddenly. That’s a far different diagnosis — and comes with a drastically different long-term outlook — than neurogenic TOS.
Of course, every individual case is different and nobody can predict how Wheeler’s particular situation will unfold.
“So the recovery can be a little bit different,” Phillies head athletic trainer Paul Buchheit said. “And the fact that with [Wheeler] … it was more of an acute issue — that’s in his favor that he wasn’t dealing with it for a long time prior to going under for the procedure.”
Given the seriousness of the situation and all the unknowns over the past week, manager Rob Thomson said it was a relief to know the issue had been diagnosed and can be remedied with surgery.
“He’s healthy,” Thomson said, when asked about his initial reaction to the diagnosis. “It’s disappointing to lose him, but we have a lot of depth there. I love our club. So the six-to-eight month recovery was encouraging to me.”
While the focus is understandably on Wheeler and his long-term health, the short-term impact from a baseball perspective wasn’t lost on anyone.
Wheeler has been arguably the most dominant pitcher in the Majors over the past half decade. Since joining the Phillies in 2020, he leads all pitchers in strikeouts (1,094), WHIP (1.02) and innings (979), and he ranks third in ERA (2.91).
There’s also the postseason success.
As good as Wheeler has been in the regular season, he’s been at his best when the lights are brightest.
Wheeler’s 2.18 career postseason ERA ranks third all time among pitchers with at least 10 postseason starts, trailing only Waite Hoyt (1.83) and Madison Bumgarner (2.11).
“Yeah, it’s a big loss. It’s a guy whose postseason career alone is Cy Young-worthy,” designated hitter Kyle Schwarber said. “We know it’s not going to be easy, but as we inch closer and closer to the postseason, we don’t need anyone trying to go out there and be Superman.
“If our guys can just be themselves, we’re going to take that. We believe in our guys.”
The question becomes who those guys will be.
Without Wheeler, Cristopher Sánchez becomes the unquestioned Game 1 starter. As things stand now, Ranger Suárez and Jesús Luzardo would be the most likely candidates to follow Sánchez.
That’s three straight left-handers.
Ideally, right-hander Aaron Nola will return to form over the final five weeks. He made his second start on Saturday following a three-month absence due to a sprained right ankle and a stress fracture in his right rib.
Without Wheeler, how important is it for Nola to step up and give the Phillies a right-handed option to break up their trio of southpaws in a short postseason series?
“Very important. No doubt,” Thomson said. “And I expect good things out of Nola. I really do. He’s done it for a long time. He’s experienced. He’s gone through ruts and come out of it in the past. He’s going to be fine.”
But he also turns 36 next May. Wheeler has expressed that he doesn’t plan to pitch beyond his current contract, which goes through the 2027 season.
Of course, Wheeler has also expressed a desire to win a Cy Young Award and a World Series before calling it a career. He was making a push to potentially do both this season.
For Wheeler, the Cy Young Award will have to wait at least one more season. For the Phillies, the path to a World Series just got a bit tougher.
Baseball aside, there was still a sense of relief that this was caught now and can be addressed.
“This isn’t a lifelong gig,” Schwarber said. “It’s a short amount of time in your whole entire life that you get to play this game. So, we want him to be fully healthy for whenever baseball does come to an end, so he can enjoy the rest of his life with his family and kids.”
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