According to a report in the Washington Post, Russian leader Vladimir Putin demanded in his telephone conversation with US President Donald Trump this week that Ukraine completely abandon the Donetsk region as a “condition for ending the war.”
Putin has been trying to conquer the entire area for more than 10 years. Why has he not succeeded?
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Russia’s war on the Ukrainian mainland began in April 2014 in the Donets Basin (Donbas), named after the Siversky Donets River. The Ukrainian positions there are particularly well fortified. While Russia has managed to almost completely conquer the Luhansk Oblast of the Donbas, Moscow has achieved little success in the Donetsk Oblast since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022.
Why is he even trying?
According to the Russian constitution, amended in 2022, the Donetsk Oblast, among others, is officially (albeit illegally) part of the Russian Federation. As the so-called “guarantor” of Russia’s Constitution, Putin is obliged to ensure the Constitution’s fulfilment.
Even more important than this formality is the symbolic and strategic significance of this region and Russia’s inability, after more than 11 years of war, to conquer this Ukrainian border oblast in the far east of Ukraine. The obvious embarrassment of this situation for Putin is a major reason for his demand for Ukrainian surrender.
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The strong fortifications, geographical location and geological characteristics of the part of Donbas held by the Ukrainian army are militarily significant. If the territory were to fall under Russian control, this would open the way for further advances into the interior of Ukraine. It is also an area with significant natural resources.
As the course of the war in spring 2022 made clear, the ultimate prize for Russia is the city of Kyiv – not eastern or southern Ukraine.
Putin knows full well that Ukraine is not prepared to cede any territory. Is this “offer” another example of his delaying tactics?
Moscow is trying to make Washington its agent in the trilateral negotiations on the Donbas issue. If Trump increases pressure on [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelensky to agree to a territorial concession in the Donbas, Putin can only win. If Zelensky refuses, he will appear to Trump as unwilling to make peace and thus as a problem for the American president’s peace efforts and his ambitions for the Nobel Peace Prize. If Zelensky agrees, Russia will gain a strategic advantage for its next attack on central Ukraine.
In the most favorable scenario for Moscow, Zelensky’s territorial concessions to Russia could trigger a civil war in Ukraine. Such a domestic political escalation has been one of Moscow’s main goals since the beginning of the Russian military invasion of Ukraine on the Crimean Peninsula, in February 2014.
At the same time, Putin demanded even more territory at the summit in Alaska in August. Why not now?
Putin has apparently realized that he cannot enforce his maximalist demands. From a military strategic perspective, the Donets Basin is important. If he were able to advance there due to a Ukrainian retreat, there would be an opportunity to conquer further parts of Ukraine. A voluntary cession of the hard-fought and heavily defended government-controlled parts of the Donets Basin within Ukraine would cause great resentment, particularly among the Ukrainian armed forces and veterans’ associations.
Ukraine has entrenched itself deep in the Donetsk Oblast and established a kind of “fortress belt” in this area. How great is the danger that, if Ukraine loses territory, any future Russian military advance beyond the Donbas, deeper into Ukraine, will be unstoppable?
The risk of a deeper advance would increase dramatically if the heavily fortified government-controlled parts of the Donets Basin were abandoned. As the course of the war in spring 2022 made clear, the ultimate prize for Russia is the city of Kyiv – not eastern or southern Ukraine.
What does this defensive belt in the Donetsk Oblast look like in concrete terms?
The geographical conditions of the government-controlled parts of the Donbas are favorable for their defense. Ukraine has used the past 11 years to create a system of trenches, bunkers, fortifications, bases and supply lines there that can be well defended. Russia has repeatedly attempted to conquer this “fortress belt” using large military resources and units.
It can be assumed that the Donbas now has a reputation in both the Ukrainian and Russian armies as a death zone for Russia’s soldiers. Putin is therefore attempting to solve this operational, strategic and political problem for Moscow not by military means, but through negotiations.
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