Who Will Win In The Major Categories

In predicting the final ceremony — of three — for the Primetime Emmys, I generally look to see if there are any clear clues from the first two largely crafts-oriented Creative Arts ceremonies. These took place over the past weekend, and for the 77th Emmys, some clear frontrunners have emerged. Based on the nomination totals, it all seems to fall in line for the shows that had the most to begin with. So let’s see how the winners’ circle is shaping up for Sunday night.

Here are my final predictions in the major categories for what, at least on paper, looks like a very predictable night. As a member of the Television Academy, this is not how I’ve necessarily voted myself, but only what I’m guessing the rest of the 26,000-strong membership might have chosen.

Comedy Series

Freshman comedy Apple TV+’s The Studio had a record 23 nominations, far outstripping last year’s much-deserving upset winner Hacks, which has 14 noms this year. It also eclipsed the winner the year before that in The Bear, which had 13 nominations. So here we have a big clue. The Studio already picked up nine wins and is already hot on the trail of passing the all-time record holder for a comedy in a single season. Ironically that record holder is The Bear, which won 11 Emmys last year but in a wild upset at the end of the night it lost Comedy Series to Hacks, so don’t take this call to the bank. The Bear also had the record the previous year, when it won 10, including the top prize. In 2020, Schitt’s Creek had set the record with nine wins. You see a pattern? Rather than the days of shows like Modern Family or Frasier, which dominated several years in a row, the Academy now appears to like shaking things up here. And if it makes you feel more comfortable with this prediction, just keep in mind that Academy voters love to honor stories about them.

THE WINNER: The Studio

Drama Series

Here, unlike Comedy Series, you have no previous winner in this category in the running, and only one show, Slow Horses, that even was nominated last year for the top Drama prize. Now there is a caveat. The White Lotus won in 2022 for Limited Series or Anthology before turning into a regular Drama series, and now in its third season it has the second-highest total nominations in the category with 23. It didn’t win here for its second season (losing to Succession), but can it turn the trick in its third? Probably not. The frontrunner is the Emmy nominations leader this year Severance, which came roaring back in its second season with a whopping 27 nominations, nearly doubling its number from Season 1 three years ago. It already picked up seven wins in the Creative Arts ceremonies and looks poised to do very well come Sunday. However, its strongest competition, HBO’s The Pitt, is hot on its heels, despite only 13 nominations and just two wins last weekend. Still, that show recently swept the Television Critics Association Awards with four, to zero for Severance, and also just won a Humanitas Prize for one of its Emmy-nominated scripts. If there is an upset, it will happen here. The numbers, though, are hard to ignore, especially when the entire membership gets to vote on program categories.

THE WINNER: Severance

Limited or Anthology Series

Although HBO’s The Penguin is way out in front here with 24 nominations and eight wins already, the certain bet is the global phenomenon Netflix show Adolescence, which, despite only 13 nominations and just two wins so far, will add greatly to that number and wipe the floor in this category, continuing Netflix’s stranglehold here.

THE WINNER: Adolescence

Talk Series

With only three nominees and an amazing track record going back 15 years for shows fronted by talent from the Comedy Central series, The Daily Show was in its prime this election year, and has received a dominant eight nominations and three wins so far. In any ordinary world it would sweep to victory because it is the one truly brilliant and different entry — relevant, funny, and important — and even though I did cast a ballot for it, sentiment and headlines about the unfair cancellation of The Late Show With Stephen Colbert gives that talk show, which has never won here, the rooting factor in its penultimate season. This is true to the point where the other nominee, Jimmy Kimmel Live! (also a great show), took out billboards to urge people to vote for his competition in this case. Plus, Late Show picked up an Emmy over the weekend for Directing, another category it had never won, and another clue for what is bound to be the high point of the Emmy broadcast.

THE WINNER: The Late Show With Stephen Colbert

Scripted Variety Series

Only two nominees here, and Last Week Tonight with John Oliver never loses at the Emmys (no matter what category he is in). But even with the opportunity to also vote elsewhere for SNL50: The Anniversary Special, voters may also want to honor SNL the regular series this year in particular, and give it props for still thriving in a late slot on a Saturday night for half a century.

THE WINNER: Saturday Night Live

Variety Special (Live)

If it doesn’t cancel itself out, SNL50: The Anniversary Special, which already won seven Emmys last weekend, will prevail over SNL50: The Homecoming Concert, the Oscars, Beyoncé and Super Bowl Halftime. It pays to be 50.

THE WINNER: SNL50: The Anniversary Special

Reality Competition Program

Despite a resurgence year for Survivor, look for this to be the place Peacock gets to shine again with a second consecutive win for The Traitors. Alan Cumming already picked up a second consecutive win for Reality Host last weekend and the die is cast. Once you break the curse and start winning in this category it becomes a matter of habit and it is usually for a run of several years. Just ask current nominees RuPaul’s Drag Race and The Amazing Race what that feels like. Welcome to the repeat club, Traitors!

THE WINNER: The Traitors

Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Kathy Bates in Matlock would become the oldest winner ever in the category should she win. It would also be a boost for broadcast television and CBS, the network airing the Emmys this year. Should she stumble though, look to Britt Lower of Severance to pull the upset. It could happen: Andy Griffith was never even nominated for the original Matlock (or for his classic sitcom either).

THE WINNER: Kathy Bates, Matlock

Lead Actor in a Drama Series

This will be a close one. It seems to be between Adam Scott in the surging Severance, and Noah Wyle, previously nominated five times for supporting in ER but never a winner. In his return to the emergency room, The Pitt could be the charm. Voters also love Sterling K. Brown, so his role in Paradise could be the tiebreak if things get too close between Scott and Wyle.

THE WINNER: Noah Wyle, The Pitt

Lead Actress in Comedy Series

I don’t think there is much question. Jean Smart has won all three times she has been nominated for Hacks, and there’s no reason to stop now. You can’t penalize a performance this consistently brilliant just because she never loses.

THE WINNER: Jean Smart, Hacks

Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Jeremy Allen White has triumphed both years that he’s been nominated. Can he do it again for The Bear? The spoiler could be SAG winner Martin Short for Only Murders in the Building, but the sheer weight of The Studio may just pay off here.

THE WINNER: Seth Rogen, The Studio

Lead Actress in a Limited Series, Anthology, Television Movie

Despite the presence of the great Cate Blanchett, this is between the astounding Cristin Milioti in The Penguin and past winner for Fosse/Verdon, Michelle Williams, for Dying For Sex. This one could go either way.

THE WINNER: Cristin Milioti, The Penguin

Lead Actor in a Limited Series, Anthology, Television Movie

This is where The Penguin also scores again and adds to the eight wins it came in with. If it doesn’t though, you can blame the sweep mentality for Adolescence, but remember that Stephen Graham has other opportunities to win big on Emmy night.

THE WINNER: Colin Farrell, The Penguin

Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

With four cast members in the running for The White Lotus there could be a split, which could in turn benefit The Pitt’s Katherine LaNasa. But it is more likely it will remain with one of The White Lotus cast. My guess is it will be a bit of a surprise between Parker Posey, Carrie Coon and Natasha Rothwell.

THE WINNER: Aimee Lou Wood, The White Lotus

Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

This one is interesting with three nominations for The White Lotus and three nominations for Severance, leaving lone Paradise contender James Marsden a real shot at a win if the others devour each other. That is logical, but Emmys aren’t always logical. Walton Goggins is the most likely (considering Righteous Gemstones could help him as well) for Lotus, but the truly memorable moment of the entire season was his dinner with Sam Rockwell who, well, rocked a monologue for the ages. Plus, he deserved to win for his turn as Bob Fosse in Fosse/Verdon and didn’t, so this is retribution for the Oscar winner.

THE WINNER: Sam Rockwell, The White Lotus

Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

The Bear’s Liza Colón-Zayas took the award here last year, likely influenced by the fact that her key episode from the third season premiered during the voting period when Season 2 was the one in contention. Will she win it again once voters have forgotten they picked her last time probably for the same episode? It could also come down to the delightful Catherine O’Hara or Kathryn Hahn for The Studio, or is it finally time for frequent losers Hannah Einbinder of Hacks or Janelle James in Abbott Elementary? This one is really up for grabs, so just for the love of her (and Amy Pascal) …

THE WINNER: Catherine O’Hara, The Studio

Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Sentiment combined with a genuinely touching storyline would point to Harrison Ford winning for Shrinking on his first Emmy nomination ever. He deserves it. But if The Studio has a really big night, then voters better call Sal — as in Ike Barinholtz’s character — whose Golden Globe episode antics are assured a Globe win come January, but he could pick up an Emmy along the way.

THE WINNER: Ike Barinholtz, The Studio

Supporting Actress in a Limited Series, Anthology, Television Movie

I think this is another sure thing for Adolescence, with two splendid nominated performances by Christine Tremarco who plays the mother role, and Erin Doherty, who plays the psychologist. What the latter had to go through in her single episode is enough to seal the deal.

THE WINNER: Erin Doherty, Adolescence

Supporting Actor in a Limited Series, Anthology, Television Movie

Some great performances in this category, but this one is in the bag for the kid. Owen Cooper will surely become the youngest winner ever for his stunning work.

THE WINNER: Owen Cooper, Adolescence

You can see the Emmys live Sunday at 5pm PT/ 8pm ET on CBS and available to stream on Paramount+ with Showtime.