Which MLB contenders have the toughest road to the playoffs? Breaking down the schedules

As we near the stretch run of the Major League Baseball season, it’s time for our first of three check-ins about the strength of each playoff contender’s remaining schedule.

There are seven weeks left in the season. Here we’ll focus on the next three, spanning six series per team. There are some mighty matchups ahead this month. Phillies-Mets. Red Sox-Yankees. Dodgers-Padres twice. The Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers will play five games in four days!

Below, we picked a key upcoming series for each contender, listed their remaining August schedule and included FanGraphs’ playoff odds and strength of schedule figures. Only teams with at least a 10 percent chance of making the playoffs were included. That means no San Francisco Giants, Kansas City Royals or St. Louis Cardinals for now. Perhaps their odds will improve in time for Part 2 (Sept. 1) or Part 3 (Sept. 15).

Teams are listed in order of playoff odds. Winning percentages are updated through Saturday.

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AMERICAN LEAGUE

Toronto Blue Jays

Record: 69-50
Playoff odds: 98.2 percent
Strength of schedule: .500

Key series: Aug. 15-17 vs. Rangers

The Blue Jays’ schedule gets tough in September — Yankees, Astros, Red Sox, Rays — but there’s a relatively soft stretch coming up against the Pirates, Marlins and Twins. First, though, is the team’s only upcoming series against another AL contender. This weekend’s three-game set at home against the Rangers could end up being especially important if the Blue Jays lose control of the division and need to fight for a wild-card spot.

Detroit Tigers

Record: 68-51
Playoff odds: 97.8 percent
Strength of schedule: .487

Key series: Aug. 22-24, Aug. 29-31 vs. Royals

By the numbers, the Tigers have one of the easiest remaining schedules of any contender, and the next three weeks show why. It’s a relatively soft stretch, with next week’s series against the Astros surely the toughest matchup. But the biggest opportunities are the home-and-home series against the Royals, giving the Tigers a chance to bury a would-be contender and leave only the Guardians to realistically chase them in the division.

Seattle Mariners

Record: 66-53
Playoff odds: 94.8 percent
Strength of schedule: .502

Key series: Aug. 29-31 at Guardians

The Mariners have only one remaining series against an AL West contender (the Astros in mid-September), and they don’t play many AL wild card teams either. That adds to the importance of that end-of-August series against the Guardians, which his followed immediately by three games on the road against the Rays. But don’t sleep on this upcoming nine-game East Coast road trip, which could get tricky.

Houston Astros

Record: 66-52
Playoff odds: 90.9 percent
Strength of schedule: .496

Key series: Aug. 29-Sept. 1 vs. Angels

The challenge of the Astros’ upcoming schedule is not who they play but how often they play. They have an off day this Thursday, followed by 10 games in a row, then a stretch of 13 in a row (from late August through early September). That four-game, wrap-around set against the Angels at the end of August is followed immediately by three games against the Yankees and three against the Rangers. That’s a tough stretch, especially if the Angels manage to wear them down.

New York Yankees

Record: 62-56
Playoff odds: 80.7 percent
Strength of schedule: .483

Key series: Aug. 21-24 vs. Red Sox

The Yankees have the easiest remaining schedule of any contender. They could use a break; it’s been bleak lately. The end of this month provides an opportunity to make up ground against lesser opponents, but before that, the Yankees have a four-game set at home against the rival Red Sox, who recently pulled ahead of the Yankees in the AL East. The Yankees did more to add at the trade deadline and were ahead of the Red Sox for most of the year. Those four games are a chance to outmuscle a challenger at home.

Boston Red Sox

Record: 65-54
Playoff odds: 74.3 percent
Strength of schedule: .501

Key series: Aug. 21-24 at Yankees

Let’s not overthink this. These next three games against the Astros are important, and the nine games against the Orioles and Pirates present opportunities to perhaps beat up on diminished opponents, but the Red Sox are about to go into Yankee Stadium for four games against the Yankees, who are immediately behind them in the standings. That would be a huge series even without all the rivalry drama.

Cleveland Guardians

Record: 61-56
Playoff odds: 28.4 percent
Strength of schedule: .498

Key series: Aug. 18-20 at Diamondbacks

The last week and a half of August (Rangers, Rays, Mariners) bleeds into a tough first week of September (Red Sox, Rays), so the surging Guardians might have to keep taking advantage of the relatively soft schedule they’re in right now. Their past four series were against the Rockies, Twins, Mets, and White Sox, and they’re starting a stretch of Marlins, Braves and Diamondbacks. Have to make the most of it before things get a lot tougher.

Texas Rangers

Record: 60-59
Playoff odds: 22.7 percent
Strength of schedule: .498

Key series: Aug. 22-24 vs. Guardians

The Rangers and Guardians entered this past weekend nearly tied in the wild-card race, and the Guardians emerged two games ahead. The Rangers are going to play a couple of important divisional series in September — particularly the six games against the Astros — but first things first, the Rangers need to solidify themselves in the wild card, and the upcoming Guardians series is a chance to do that (and to avoid falling back out of it).

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National League

Milwaukee Brewers

Record: 73-44
Playoff odds: 99.9 percent
Strength of schedule: .502

Key series: Aug. 18-21 vs. Cubs

The Brewers have the best record in baseball and the best playoff odds, which have climbed from 55.4 percent July 5 to 99.9 percent now. The Brewers-Cubs June 18 rainout was rescheduled for Aug. 18, giving us a rare five-game series between two teams battling for a division title. Good thing the Brewers have built up a lead — and seem to have their heads on straight — because this will be a taxing stretch. After a rest day at home on Thursday, they’ll hit the road and play 19 games in 18 days before their next day off Sept. 2.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Record: 68-50
Playoff odds: 99.7 percent
Strength of schedule: .485

Key series: Aug. 15-17, 22-24 vs. Padres

The Dodgers have the second-easiest remaining schedule. They won five of seven games against the Padres back in June, but San Diego has been making up a lot of ground in the standings on the division-leading Dodgers. Squaring off again for two series in quick succession this month is tense stuff. And then the schedule-makers sandwich a trip to the chaotic confines of Coors Field in between? That’s 10 days of must-watch Dodgers baseball.

Philadelphia Phillies

Record: 68-49
Playoff odds: 99.3 percent
Strength of schedule: .498

Key series: Aug. 14-17, 22-24 vs. Nationals

While it’s the Phillies-Mets series that baseball fans have circled on the calendar, Philadelphia must first handle business against the Nats. Getting seven games in 11 days against a last-place team is a welcome soft spot in the schedule. It’s also an opportunity for the Phillies to extend their division lead ahead of a difficult stretch of opponents: Mets, Braves, Brewers, Marlins, Mets, Royals and Dodgers.

Chicago Cubs

Record: 67-50
Playoff odds: 97.8 percent
Strength of schedule: .487

Key series: Aug. 18-21 vs. Brewers

The Cubs haven’t won a full-season division title since 2017, and this is their last head-to-head shot at the team standing in their way this season. It’s Cubs vs. Brewers at Wrigley Field — five games in four days. Doesn’t get better than that. After that series, the Cubs will have the Angels, Giants, Rockies, Braves (twice), Nationals, Rays and Pirates on tap. It adds up to the third-easiest remaining schedule in the majors. This is the Cubs’ chance to make a run.

San Diego Padres

Record: 66-52
Playoff odds: 95.1 percent
Strength of schedule: .491

Key series: Aug. 15-17, 22-24 vs. Dodgers

The Padres, who have quickly moved from toss-up to near lock for a postseason berth, will be breathing easier in a couple weeks when they have series against the Twins, Orioles and White Sox and two series against the Rockies. But this — Giants, Dodgers, Giants, Dodgers, Mariners — is a tough stretch. The Padres have handled the Giants so far this season, but they are 2-5 against the Dodgers. Now that general manager A.J. Preller has stocked up at the trade deadline, the Padres have six more tries here against the Dodgers to whittle the division deficit further.

New York Mets

Record: 63-55
Playoff odds: 78.1 percent
Strength of schedule: .505

Key series: Aug. 25-27 vs. Phillies

The Mets’ playoff odds have fallen precipitously in the past two weeks, from 95.8 percent to 79.1 percent. Four of their next six series are against teams trailing them in the NL East, but the spotlight is on the Mets-Phillies weekday series late this month. The Mets swept the Phillies in April, then dropped two of three in June. So, advantage Mets so far, by a slim margin. But these two teams have seven head-to-head games remaining; they also meet again in September at the end of a 10-game Mets road trip.

Cincinnati Reds

Record: 62-57
Playoff odds: 12.1 percent
Strength of schedule: .518

Key series: Aug. 15-17 vs. Brewers

The Reds snuck onto this list by climbing back above 10 percent playoff odds with wins Saturday and Sunday. They have the hardest remaining strength of schedule of any club included in this list, and it’s not particularly close. So, there’s no shortage of key series ahead for the Reds. Phillies? Dodgers? We’ll go with the Brewers series this weekend, welcoming the division leaders to Cincinnati directly ahead of the Reds’ three-city West Coast road swing. The Brewers last visited Great American Ball Park in April. They took three of four.

(Top photo: Kevork Djansezian / Getty Images)