What’s Really Going On With Arch Manning?

Before he took a snap as Texas’s full-time starter, we’d already written the story of Arch Manning. He’d be a Heisman Trophy winner. The catalyst for Texas’s first national title in two decades. A future no. 1 draft pick, just like his uncles Peyton and Eli. The savior of an NFL franchise.

The 21-year-old carries the weight of the world on his shoulders, and it appears to me that those expectations have affected his play this season. 

Through three games, Manning has thrown for just six touchdowns and three interceptions while completing 55.3 percent of his passes, worst among SEC quarterbacks. There’s no sugarcoating it: He hasn’t been as advertised.  

I’ve been as curious as anyone to understand the why and how behind his slow start, and took a deep dive into his tape in search of answers. What I found was side-arm passes, miscommunication, bad footwork, questionable decision-making, and—more than anything—a guy who was pressing. But I also saw flashes of what he can be and why I was so bullish on him as a prospect when I studied his 2024 tape over the summer.

Below I’ll take you through three of the biggest red flags I’ve seen on his tape over the past two games, with corresponding coach’s clips to illustrate each argument. And after that, I’ll offer my two cents on what I think will happen with Arch and this Texas offense moving forward.

It’s one thing to fall short in a highly anticipated game on the national stage; it’s another to see ghosts and lose confidence as Arch did against Matt Patricia’s shapeshifting defense in Week 1. My theory is that we’ve seen the residual effects of that Ohio State loss in his play over the past two games, when he’s at times looked uncomfortable and Texas has beaten but not dominated San José State and UTEP.

Against San José State, Arch started strong, completing 9-of-12 passes for three TDs in the first half. But as the game went on, it looked like he started to press and play hero ball. 

In this third-and-3 play with 38 seconds remaining in the second quarter, he forces a throw instead of eating the sack:

It gets picked and sets up SJSU for a field goal before halftime. It’s a decision born out of inexperience and an example of him losing sight of the situation. 

Against UTEP, Texas established the run early and Arch threw just five passes over the first 20 plays. He was never fully unleashed during the game, but I’m hoping to see more from the passing attack against Sam Houston this Saturday before things get real against two nasty defenses in Florida and Oklahoma to kick off October.

My main takeaway from these past two games is that when he’s been hurried, he’s looked frenzied. He’s not playing within himself or with the confidence that he can make a mistake without it compounding. When I watched his tape, I kept wanting to see him take a deep breath, step away from the moment for a minute, and slow everything down. 

Early last week, clips of Arch wincing while throwing circulated online, which led many fans and media members to question whether an injury was contributing to his poor play. But Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian debunked the theory, and I can confirm on good authority that Arch is healthy and that there’s nothing wrong with his shoulder. So if that’s not the problem, what is? 

When a quarterback is pressing, the game is moving faster in his mind, which can cause rushed mechanics and inaccurate passes. There’s no rhythm—it’s like watching a frustrated golfer swing or tracking the beats of a broken metronome.

On tape, it didn’t look like he was getting full extension and driving the football on a consistent basis. He was side-arming, shot-putting, and missing passes that should’ve been easy completions. 

Take this simple 5-yard out, for example. It should be a layup but instead he looks like a shortstop turning a double play:

He’s got the time, he’s got the pocket, but his feet aren’t underneath him. This is where he needs to get those shoulders around, step into his throw, marry his feet to his eyes, and nail the target. It’s worth noting that I think frustration was a factor on this play, too. Before this pass, he’d already had some overthrows, he’d forced a couple bad balls, and Ryan Wingo had a drop. 

But there are snapshots of brilliance that serve as a baseline for what he can bring mechanically and mentally. When Arch is right, he’s using the most subtle movements to manipulate the defense:

Watch his eyes (and shoulders) from each camera angle above and notice how he peeks toward the RB in the flat to freeze the linebacker, giving himself just enough of a window to hit tight end Jack Endries up the seam for the touchdown. It’s a clever play design by Sarkisian and excellent execution by his young quarterback.

Picture a world where Joe Burrow targets Ja’Marr Chase 23 times and Chase has just nine catches for 97 yards. That’s what’s happening between Arch and his no. 1 receiver, Ryan Wingo—a former five-star recruit from the same high school class as Jeremiah Smith and Ryan Williams.  

For context, no. 2 Longhorn receiver Parker Livingstone has eight receptions on 12 targets for 198 yards, and Endries has seven receptions on 10 targets for 106 yards. From that data alone, there appears to be something amiss with the Manning-Wingo connection. I saw as much on tape, especially on dig routes: 

On passes to Wingo that require touch or to be thrown outside the hashes, Manning’s missing high, which is hard to do with a 6-foot-2 receiver. Wingo’s even been open in the back of the end zone a couple times over the past two games and Manning’s overthrown him.

Then there are moments when Wingo makes the wrong choice on a route, like in this clip where the corner has inside leverage but the wide receiver didn’t cut toward the sideline like Arch expected him to:

With Livingstone, Endries, and DeAndre Moore Jr., Manning hasn’t been perfect, but he hasn’t had the coordination problems he’s had with Wingo.

The challenge as an evaluator is that I can’t pin the disconnect on one factor or person. It’s everything: the drops, the overthrows, the underthrows, a receiver running the wrong way on a choice route, a quarterback moving too fast in every aspect of the game.

It’s not all Wingo’s fault, and it’s not all Manning’s fault. But for Texas to turn this offense around and salvage its season, these two will need to get in sync—and soon.

This start isn’t what any of us envisioned. Arch got knocked down. We all have. The question now is whether the above issues can be fixed—or at least remedied—during the season so that Texas can still compete for a national championship. 

I’m not sure what to expect from Arch, but I do know there’s not a guy in the country who has as many resources, a better support system, or as much talent around him (from Sark to Texas’s offensive playmakers). 

Can Arch answer the call? If he can, we’re going to start seeing glimpses of the quarterback that was promised. We just might have to wait another year to enjoy the finished product.