Does the 2024 YR4 asteroid threaten the earth?
In late 2024, it was first spotted blinking on Nasa’s radar as a potentially catastrophic Earth impactor set for December 22, 2032.
This asteroid has since been ruled out as a direct threat to our planet – a huge sigh of relief for us Earthlings.
If the asteroid-Moon smashup happens, what’s next?
If 2024 YR4 smacks the lunar surface, astronomers predict it could unleash an epic explosion powerful enough to send a shower of “bullet-like” meteor debris flying toward Earth.
The collision could also carve out an impact crater roughly one kilometer wide, reshaping the lunar surface in a single cataclysmic moment.
Where is the asteroid now?
Molly Wasser, in an update on the Nasa Planetary Defence team, said that asteroid 2024 YR4 is currently too distant to detect with telescopes from Earth.
But NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope has collected one more observation of the asteroid before it escaped from view in its orbit around the Sun.
This has enabled Nasa’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies to refine 2024 YR4’s orbit using Webb data, improving trajectory predictions by nearly 20%.
This raised the chance of a lunar impact on December 22, 2032, from 3.8% to 4.3%.
What will be the effect on man-made satellites?
Imagine a dazzling meteor shower lighting up the skies, but also a potential headache for our precious satellites zooming overhead.
Astronomers warn that these space invaders could threaten the gadgets that handle our GPS, broadband internet, and weather forecasts — basically our modern lifelines.
Would the lunar strike alter the Moon’s orbit?
No. Nasa experts say this strike would not alter the Moon’s orbit or endanger life on Earth directly.
However, the aftermath could be spectacular and consequential — hurling a rain of lunar debris towards our planet’s atmosphere.
While most fragments would burn up harmlessly on entry, some pose risks to orbiting satellites, threatening the critical infrastructure that underpins global communication and weather forecasting.
How is its movement detected?
Using the near-infrared camera aboard the James Webb Telescope, astronomers led by Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory have refined the asteroid’s predicted trajectory by nearly 20%.
This is how the impact odds was nudged upward while shoring up confidence in this new hazardous scenario.
The European Space Agency (ESA) also highlights the value of next-generation infrared observatories like NEOMIR, which would have detected 2024 YR4 a full month earlier, providing essential lead time for monitoring and planetary defense preparedness.
What does a 4% chance of collision mean?
The suspense is heightened by the relative rarity of such lunar impact events.
While space is vast, and collisions remain statistically infrequent, a 4% chance is “very high” in astronomical terms, say Nasa experts.
This scenario casts the Moon not merely as a silent celestial body, but as an active participant in our solar system’s ongoing drama.
Source link
