What we’re hearing about the Cubs’ pitching outlook ahead of NLDS Game 2

MILWAUKEE — Shota Imanaga’s nickname roughly translates to “The Throwing Philosopher,” a descriptor for his studious approach to pitching and commitment to his craft. Up close, the Chicago Cubs have seen how the Japanese lefty sifts through information, reads hitters’ swings and makes adjustments in the moment.

To beat the best team in baseball, Imanaga will need all of that gumption and deception.

Rather than keep it a guessing game, Cubs manager Craig Counsell announced Sunday that Imanaga will be Monday night’s Game 2 starter against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field. Already down 1-0 in a best-of-five National League Division Series, the Cubs expect Imanaga to set the tone.

Starting pitchers, though, are no longer expected to throw seven-plus innings every time out in October. The job is to handle certain parts of the lineup, minimize damage and give your club a chance to win.

With that in mind, the Cubs used an opener in front of Imanaga during last week’s Wild Card Series against the San Diego Padres. In a curious move, the Cubs then let Imanaga face Manny Machado with two outs, a runner on second base and first base open. Machado launched Imanaga’s first pitch, an 84 mph splitter, out toward Waveland Avenue for a two-run homer.

Still, Imanaga mostly contained the Padres in a 3-0 loss, allowing only those two runs across four innings at Wrigley Field. Heading into that Game 2, the basic questions revolved around how Imanaga would react to his first major-league playoff environment and whether his late-season struggles would carry over.

“He was able to move the fastball around,” Cubs pitching coach Tommy Hottovy said. “That’s one of the things we’ve been talking about a little bit more. Not just relying on the fastball up, but moving it around and using it down in the zone. Pitching in, pitching away, keeping the hitters a little bit more honest.

“That way, it protects his split a little bit more. A lot of times when you face Shota, you can do one of two things: You’re either looking up for the heater, or you’re looking down for (something) soft. How can we combat that? The slider’s been a big weapon there, but then also moving the fastball around.”

Imanaga’s career numbers against the Brewers (5.73 ERA in four starts) represent a relatively small sample, inflated by his first bad start as a major-league rookie last year. As Shota-mania was building, he had a 0.84 ERA near the end of May when the Brewers scored seven runs against him during Milwaukee’s eventual 10-6 win.

Imanaga has surpassed all expectations since signing a complex four-year, $53 million contract that includes a series of player/club options. He’s already been an All-Star, a Cy Young Award contender and an Opening Day starter.

“It’s continuing to trust what he’s done,” Hottovy said, “but also know there’s some areas he can attack in the postseason that maybe hitters aren’t quite looking for.”


• The longer this postseason goes, the more the Cubs will feel Cade Horton’s absence. The young pitcher, who’s been sidelined with a fractured right rib, is scheduled to throw off the mound this week at Wrigley Field, a gauge that will help determine whether he might be available if the club advances to the NL Championship Series.

In thinking about the long term, Cubs officials anticipate that Horton, 24, will be awarded a full year of major-league service time. That would then position him to become a free agent after the 2030 season, rather than being under club control for almost seven full major-league seasons.

That current projection is based on a top-two finish in the Rookie of the Year voting, a change enacted through baseball’s collective bargaining agreement, largely in response to how the Cubs handled the Kris Bryant situation 10 years ago.

Rookie of the Year voters are members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America. In this potential case, the Cubs would not receive an additional draft pick under baseball’s Prospect Promotion Incentive because Horton did not make his major-league debut until May 10.

Horton simply kept getting better, going 8-1 with a 1.03 ERA in 12 starts after the All-Star break. On the second-to-last day of the regular season, the Cubs placed their best-performing pitcher on the injured list.

“That’s not what you want to hear,” Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong said that day. “But he’s a guy who’s got his focus in the right place, so we already know that he’s going to do everything he can to just get healthy. Because that’s what I really want.

“Selfishly, yeah, I want him taking the ball every chance he can get. But at the same time, selfishly, I want to be playing with him for a long time, so I just hope that we do whatever we need to do to keep Cade Horton healthy overall.”

• As the Cubs celebrated in the Wrigley Field clubhouse after winning their wild-card round, Justin Steele particularly appreciated the moment for homegrown players Ian Happ and Nico Hoerner, and longtime organizational coaches such as Jonathan Mota and Juan Cabreja, people who had worked their way up and experienced the grind together.

The Cubs drafted Steele out of high school in 2014, and it took seven years until he made his major-league debut. The organization squandered his 2023 All-Star season, finishing with 83 victories in a year when two 84-win teams made the NL playoffs. The resiliency and composure that would define this year’s team started to become apparent in April, when Steele underwent season-ending surgery on his left elbow.

“Obviously, I want to be pitching in this situation,” Steele said, “but this is the next best thing.”

Steele is traveling with the team during the playoffs and is scheduled to begin playing catch later this month, a timetable that could have him ready sometime around Opening Day 2026, depending on how his left arm responds, and assuming no setbacks.

Standing in the stadium formerly known as Miller Park, Steele was reminded of how he once described a back-and-forth game between the Cubs and Brewers as “drunk.”

“That’s how I like to think about the games every time we come here,” Steele said. “Everyone’s drinking. The game’s drunk. You never know what’s going to happen. I feel like every time we play these guys, it’s just a hard-fought battle. You never know which way it’s going to go. That’s why it’s always entertaining.”

(Photo of Shota Imanaga: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)




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