On Friday, the BYU football team will kickoff the home conference slate against West Virginia. The Cougars are undefeated and looking to remain in the conference title race, while the Mountaineers are coming off a blowout loss to Utah. BYU is heavy favored in this game. The Cougars are currently 19.5-point favorites according to oddsmakers.
The advanced analytics are equally as bullish on BYU’s chances.
BCFToys gives BYU an 91.8% chance to beat WVU with a projected final score of 34-14. BCFToys ranks BYU as the 21st team nationally with an opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency ranking of no. 19 nationally and an offensive ranking of 40th nationally.
West Virginia ranks 78th nationally with an offensive ranking of 85th and a defensive rating of 67th.
BYU also has a major special teams advantage in this game per FEI. The Cougars’ special teams ranks 14th nationally compared to 112th nationally for the Mountaineers.
SP+, a predictive metric invented by ESPN’s Bill Connelly, predicted BYU-West Virginia.
SP+ gives BYU a 92% chance to win with an expected final score of 36-13. BYU ranks 21st in FPI, headlined by the defense and special teams which ranks 13th and 6th nationally, respectively. The BYU offense ranks 46th nationally.
WVU ranks 83rd in SP+. The Mountaineers are ranked 96th on offense, 71st on defense, and 61st on special teams.
FPI is the most bullish on BYU’s chances. FPI gives BYU a 94.9% chance to win.
CFB Graphs is not nearly as bullish on BYU as other predictive models. CFB Graphs gives BYU a 73% chance to beat WVU with a projected final score of 28-15. BYU has a few statistical advantages in this game according to CFP Graphs. On the defensive end, BYU allows just 0.88 net points per drive which ranks 10th nationally. The WVU offense is scoring 1.08 points per drive which ranks 113th in the country.
On offense, BYU should be able to move the ball up and down the field. BYU ranks seventh nationally in quality drive rate. WVU ranks 117th nationally in quality drive rate allowed.
BYU should have a good chance to win the field position battle in this game. BYU ranks fourth nationally in average starting position. WVU ranks 132nd.
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