BALTIMORE — Red Sox veteran Alex Bregman made a bold prediction during Roman Anthony’s first week in the major leagues, saying the 21-year-old would become “one of the best hitters in all of baseball.”
“He’s already hit a ball 111 (mph exit velocity) in the big leagues. I don’t think I’ve ever done that in my career,” Bregman said back then.
Bregman’s claim initially seemed exaggerated to stress Anthony’s talent, but Statcast data confirmed its accuracy. Bregman’s career max exit velocity is 109.6 mph. Anthony had a 111.2 mph lineout in his second career MLB at-bat.
The question then becomes: Is big-time exit velocity even that important or is it just a cool, flashy metric?
After all, Bregman has hit for power throughout his career (41 homers in 2019, 31 homers in 2018) despite being in the 53rd percentile or below in average exit velocity in eight of his 10 big league seasons.
“I mean, it helps you,” Bregman said before Boston’s win Tuesday against the Orioles. “If you hit it in the air, I feel like the harder you hit the ball, the further it goes. But I feel like you’ve seen him (Anthony) start to spin the ball correctly as well, which has been kind of correlated with an increase in homers and getting the ball elevated to the pull side and hit hard. So I think that obviously hitting the ball hard is very important and spinning the ball correctly and getting it in the air is important as well.”
Bregman’s career-high 109.6 mph exit velocity came this season. He ranks in the 65th percentile this year — the highest he’s ever been — with an average exit velocity of 90.6 mph. Anthony, meanwhile, is averaging 94.4 mph in the majors this season.
“Obviously I try to hit the ball hard,” said Bregman, acknowledging he’s never been elite in that area.
Bregman’s 41 homers in 2019 came despite an 89.3 mph average exit velocity, which was about the league average.
For him, hitting the ball hard in the 25-32 degree launch angle range is optimal.
“I think the important thing is spinning the ball correctly in the air to the pull side,” Bregman said. “So the harder you can hit the ball doing that, the more success I feel like you’re gonna have. So I think that coupling the two is important, but I wouldn’t want to give on the backspin in the air to the pull side if that meant adding exit velocity, I wouldn’t want to give on that. I think hitting the ball on a line and in the air is more important.”
Anthony’s hardest-hit ball in the majors this season has reached an impressive 113.7 mph. He belted a 497-foot, 115.6 mph grand slam to right-center field for Triple-A Worcester against Rochester two days before the Red Sox promoted him to the big leagues.
While he’s consistently produced eye-popping exit velocities in the majors, he’s now starting to hit the ball out of the ballpark more regularly with five homers in his last 15 games.
Anthony became the youngest Red Sox player ever to lead off a game with a home run when he did it here Monday. He hit another leadoff homer Wednesday off Orioles opener Dietrich Enns, a lefty.
Creating backspin is something Bregman has always done well that Anthony is improving at considerably, leading to the increase in home runs.
“Hit the inside part of the ball out front,” Bregman said about creating backspin. “Get the bat out in front of your body. That would be the key.”
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