Texas enters as preseason number one but analytical systems favor Ohio State in Week One showdown
One of the biggest games of the 2025 college football season just so happens to be in Week One. The Texas Longhorns head to Columbus to take on the Ohio State Buckeyes on Saturday, and while the expanded College Football Playoff has lessened the stakes regarding postseason play, there’s another, possibly even more important battle at play.
Narrative.
Yes, it’s Week One. Yes, the season is long, as we saw with Notre Dame losing to Northern Illinois, only to reach the National Championship game. But after an offseason where debates over the Big Ten and SEC have only become more intense – to have arguably the best two teams from both sides play each other in Week One is undoubtedly going to create season-long beliefs about the teams and their conferences.
While Ohio State is a slight home favorite, the tight spread implies that the oddsmakers might think Texas is the better team. Many fans and poll voters agree. Texas enters the year as the preseason number one, and Arch Manning is widely believed to be the Heisman Trophy frontrunner.
But what happens if Ohio State wins? Or an even bigger hypothetical, blows them out?
ARLINGTON, TEXAS – Arch Manning #16 of the Texas Longhorns warms up before the Goodyear Cotton Bowl at AT&T Stadium on January 10, 2025. (Photo by CFP/Getty Images)
Ohio State Might Be The Best Team In The Country
Most analytically-driven ranking systems, like SP+ from ESPN, or FEI, from Brian Fremeau, have Ohio State as the number one team in the country. So much so that both SP+ and FEI, in their Week 1 game projections, have Ohio State winning.
SP+ by a score of 27-20, and FEI by a score of 32-19. Those are averages, so not necessarily based on a specific score, but if the Buckeyes pull of a double-digit win over the preseason number one team from the SEC, with the Heisman Trophy favorite at quarterback, will that set the tone for how the SEC and Big Ten are viewed over the rest of the season?
There are several other huge SEC non-conference games this coming weekend, including Alabama-Florida State and LSU-Clemson. So a Texas loss might not be as big of a blow to the conference’s reputation. And conversely, the Longhorns could show themselves to be the legitimate number one team by beating the Buckeyes on the road.
Still, what happens to Manning’s Heisman campaign if he doesn’t impress in a huge non-conference game? Does it impact playoff seeding at the end of the season, despite being in Week One?
It’s already a fascinating game, two of college football’s biggest names, playing on one of their campuses, defending national champs against Arch Manning, Big Ten vs SEC – just imagine how many more narratives there will be based on the results. Especially if Ohio State holds the powerful Texas offense at bay.
