It might seem like a long time ago now, but Jaxson Dart was viewed with more than a bit of skepticism by NFL fans and the draft community.
Dart wasn’t really talked about as a real potential first rounder until the Senior Bowl. Even as word of the Giants’ love of him started to circulate, there were some who believed that it was a smoke screen to hide their intentions to draft Shedeur Sanders in the first round.
And even then, there were many who believed that drafting any quarterback in the 2025 NFL Draft would be a mistake. There was a persistent belief that the 2025 QB class was terrible and waiting until the Giants could get a “sure thing” in 2026.
But, as we know, the Giants had very strong convictions on Dart and traded back into the first round, moving up from 34th overall to 25th overall, to select him.
There are, obviously, a lot of moving parts here. We don’t know how Dart will pan out over the coming months (and years), nor do we know how the 2026 quarterback class will shape up.
Right now, the upcoming class isn’t looking nearly as pristine as did did last April. Bill Connelly of ESPN ranked every Power 4 quarterback after the first month, and many of the QBs we were expecting to be good have fallen off a cliff.
Expected top quarterbacks
(Note: The listed rank is their listed rank according to Connelly.)
4. Fernando Mendoza (Indiana)
Total QBR: 82.1 | Pass Yds: 1,208 | Rush Yds: 132 | Total TDs: 18
Indiana ranks first nationally in success rate*, and Mendoza ranks first among QBs. He survived an always tricky trip to Iowa City this past weekend, too, throwing for 233 yards and two touchdowns (albeit with an interception and two sacks). Kurtis Rourke was a huge part of Indiana’s surprise success last season, and thanks to Mendoza the Hoosiers are doing as well or even better this year.
(* Success rate: How frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third or fourth.)
12. John Mateer (Oklahoma)
Total QBR: 75.5 | Pass Yds: 1,215 | Rush Yds: 211 | Total TDs: 11
Obviously this one’s a bit tricky, as Mateer is out for an undetermined amount of time after hand surgery. But since he is expected back at some point this season, we’ll put him on this list.
Mateer is also tricky to evaluate because Oklahoma’s offense has been mediocre this season (61st in points per drive, 56th in yards per play), but anything good has probably been because of him. He is carrying a heavy load for an otherwise poor run game, and he is distributing the ball nicely among four pass catchers. I didn’t think he should be the Heisman favorite for his play, but he is playing well with a high degree of difficulty.
Total QBR: 81.9 | Pass Yds: 972 | Rush Yds: 38 | Total TDs: 8
It’s hard to figure out Beck and Miami’s offense at the moment. The Hurricanes are up to third in the AP poll, and he is the No. 4 Heisman betting favorite with a 73% completion rate (ninth among qualified QBs). But he is 68th nationally in yards per completion (11.9) and 95th in interception rate (2.7%), and he provides no run threat whatsoever. The defense has been more responsible than the offense for Miami’s 4-0 start.
37. Garrett Nussmeier (LSU)
Total QBR: 76.4 | Pass Yds: 1,159 | Rush Yds: 50 | Total TDs: 8
The preseason Heisman contender dealt with a torso injury before the season and sure looks like he is still dealing with it, but he has to throw all the time because LSU’s run game stinks. So he is throwing quick passes (115th in air yards per attempt) but not completing a huge percentage (43rd in completion rate), and the ones he is completing aren’t going anywhere (112th in yards per completion). LSU’s defense is finally excellent, but Nussmeier and the offense aren’t living up to their end of the bargain.
54. Cade Klubnik (Clemson)
Total QBR: 45.1 | Pass Yds: 996 | Rush Yds: 94 | Total TDs: 7
It’s just shocking how poor Clemson’s passing game has been this year. Klubnik ranks 93rd in yards per dropback, 102nd in success rate and 96th in interception rate. He’s facing blitzes constantly behind a banged-up offensive line (the run game has been wholly mediocre), and he’s firing short and mostly ineffective passes. He posted a 78.7 Total QBR in 2024, but he hasn’t topped 60.0 in a 2025 game yet. This has been an utterly disastrous September.
55. Drew Allar (Penn State)
Total QBR: 48.4 | Pass Yds: 763 | Rush Yds: 86 | Total TDs: 6
In one drive against Oregon, with Penn State down 14, Allar completed three passes for 56 yards and a beautiful touchdown lob. The rest of the game, he went 11-of-22 for 81 yards and a game-clinching pick. His big-game production is a known issue, but he hasn’t really produced against anyone, throwing few deep balls and averaging 10.8 yards per completion. This has not yet become the breakthrough year Allar hoped for.
The stance he is, and has been, that Arch Manning and LaNoris Sellers should stay in college, develop, and wait to declare for the 2027 draft. That was my stance before the season, and remains such after their poor starts to the season. Dante Moore has had an excellent start to the 2025 season and there’s going to be a lot of pressure on him to come out if he continues to play well. However, he’s also a red-shirt sophomore and I tend to believe that getting as much experience as possible is the wiser move.
Total QBR: 83.0 | Pass Yds: 1,210 | Rush Yds: 131 | Total TDs: 14
After an easy start to his first season as Oregon’s starter, Moore faced the biggest test of his career on a White Out evening at Penn State last Saturday. He threw for a wonderfully controlled 248 yards and three touchdowns with no sacks or interceptions and three rushing first downs. There are more tests to come, but that’s how you become the Heisman betting favorite virtually overnight.
27. LaNorris Sellers (South Carolina)
Total QBR: 66.0 | Pass Yds: 886 | Rush Yds: 210 | Total TDs: 5
He is getting no help from a dreadful run game, and sacks remain a devastating issue — South Carolina ranks 126th in pressure rate allowed (which is potentially on the O-line) and 119th in sacks per pressure (which is on Sellers). But he is still a playmaker: He averages 15.3 yards per completion (ninth) — with only one interception — and 9.2 yards per scramble. Both flaws and upside remain obvious.
Total QBR: 57.2 | Pass Yds: 888 | Rush Yds: 132 | Total TDs: 14
It almost looks like paralysis by analysis for Manning. He has been raised as a perfect quarterback specimen and knows every passing angle, and he seems to freeze up while considering what to do sometimes. He averages 3.1 seconds to throw (seventh most in the country), and he is 100th in interception rate (2.8%) and 96th in completion rate (61.3%). Texas’ defense will buy him development time, and things could click at any moment, but they haven’t yet.
So, did the Giants make the right move in trading up to draft Jaxson Dart at 25th overall?
In all honesty, that will likely depend on how Dart develops over the coming year. If he follows a similar arc as he did in college with consistent improvement culminating in play that puts him in the record books, I have a hard time believing that the Giants will be upset with the choice.
The hype for Dart was overwhelming following a great preseason performance in which he was easily the best rookie quarterback. And even though Dart only threw for 111 yards, his first win and the energy he brought to the Giants’ sideline seems to have kept everyone bought in. His second performance, in Sunday’s loss to New Orleans, was rockier.
The larger point here may be that Connelly’s assessment of the college quarterbacks illustrates how dramatically things can shift.
Dart was only barely on the national radar a year ago, while the top prospects were Cam Ward (who remained at the top), Carson Beck (who went back to school), Shedeur Sanders (who was drafted in the fifth round), and Quinn Ewers (who was drafted in the seventh round).
How will the quarterback depth chart change over the next month, or over the remainder of the college football season, will be fascinating to follow. It’s possible that the Giants could come to regret drafting Dart — or any quarterback — in 2025, but it’s also possible that he could be the best of two draft classes.
We won’t know until the dust settles.
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