The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | July 25 – 27, 2025
Week 30 | July 25 – 27, 2025
1. The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Disney/Marvel Studios | NEW
Weekend Range: $115M – $135M
Showtime Marketshare: 32%
Pros
- Since acquiring the rights during the Disney/Fox acquisition, Marvel Studios has been paving the way for their big Fantastic Four movie, including a cameo from John Krasinski as an alternate Reed Richards in Doctor Strange 2 as well as one of Chris Evans reprising Johnny Storm in Deadpool & Wolverine. Now, Pedro Pascal & Co. are getting their chance to shine as the MCU’s proper first family in The Fantastic Four: First Steps. Early reviews are positive with an 86% rating on Rotten Tomatoes (outperforming Superman’s 83%), with most critics calling it a return to form for the MCU. One advantage is the movie takes place on an alternate version of Earth from the rest of the MCU, so the audience need not be burdened by continuity on this one. It should come in around the same range as Superman, looking at an opening weekend between $115 and $135M to put the MCU back on track this year. The potential is there for this title to reach $300M domestic, following the last two Marvel Studios outings (Captain America: Brave New World, Thunderbolts*), which finished with domestic totals of around $200M, respectively.
Cons
Even if you don’t count the shelved Roger Corman movie from 1994, The Fantastic Four have had 40 miles of bad road trying to make their way properly to the big screen. The initial set of two studio films by Tim Story was true to the comics, but did not capture the hearts of fans, as the second film, Rise of the Silver Surfer, underperformed and earned less than the 2005 movie. Fox then put a reboot into production where studio reshoots were at odds with the darker vision of director Josh Trank, resulting in a Frankenfilm that bombed with critics (9% on RT) and audiences (“C-” CinemaScore, the worst for a studio superhero movie at the time). While the Marvel Studios version is coming in with highly positive buzz, there’s still a lot of baggage from these previous attempts. Here’s a chart for comparison…
- Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (2007) – $58M opening/$131.9M total
- Fantastic Four (2005) – $56M opening/$154.69M total
- Fantastic Four (2015) – $25.68M opening/$56.1M total
The Fantastic Four is a team of four heroes with visually distinct powers, and when you combine that with the large canvas cosmic sci-fi storytelling inherent to the comics, it’s an expensive proposition. Marvel Studios has clearly put their money where their mouth is to bring the characters to life as Jack Kirby first envisioned, so let’s hope the fourth time is the charm.
2. Superman
Warner Bros. | Week 3
Weekend Range: $26M – $32M
Showtime Marketshare: 14%
Pros
- James Gunn’s Superman continues to be solid steel domestically, earning above expectations with $58.45M in its sophomore frame (over a million above Sunday estimates). Right now the domestic total is at $243.1M gunning to break Man of Steel‘s $291M, with the potential endgame of beating Aquaman‘s $335M/Joker‘s $335.4M to become the second-highest-grossing domestic performer for a DC movie (Wonder Woman is #1 with $412.56M). Despite the Fantastic competition in Frame 3 it should still keep pace for a second place finish in the high twenties to low thirties.
Cons
- Going up against the similarly bright/optimistic/well-reviewed Fantastic Four is about as direct competition as it gets for DC. There’s also the massive underperformance overseas (only $173M so far), which is both alarming and puzzling given how well received the movie has been stateside. In a recent Rolling Stone interview Gunn claimed “we have a certain amount of anti-American sentiment around the world right now. It isn’t really helping us.” Gunn’s point is somewhat mitigated when you realize the last MCU movie to perform worse internationally than domestically was Black Panther: Wakanda Forever in 2022 ($453.8M domestic vs $405.37M international), including this year’s Captain America: Brave New World which performed on par overseas. The last DC movie to do so was Blue Beetle ($72.5M domestic vs $58.3M international).
3. Jurassic World Rebirth
Universal Pictures | Week 4
Weekend Range: $10M – $14M
Showtime Marketshare: 9%
Pros
- Universal’s seventh dino franchise extravaganza Jurassic World Rebirth held firm in second place this past weekend against two underperforming newcomers (Smurfs and I Know What You Did Last Summer), taking in $23.7M for a current $279.25M domestic total. It will have its final weekend in the $10M range in Frame 4, almost certainly passing the $300M mark by Sunday.
Cons
- While it will finish its run above $700M globally, Jurassic World Rebirth continues to perform well below its previous brethren, four of which grossed above $1B worldwide. It’s the same problem almost all the tentpoles have been having this year, which is higher cost vs lower yield in terms of ticket sales. All these franchise films (Mission: Impossible, Superman, Jurassic) have been great in the short term for exhibitors, but we can expect in the final assessment of Summer ’25 for the conversation to shift from superhero fatigue to overall franchise fatigue.
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