The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | September 5 – 7, 2025
Week 36 | September 5 – 7, 2025
1. The Conjuring: Last Rites
Warner Bros./New Line | NEW
Opening Weekend Range: $40M – $50M
Showtime Marketshare: 21%
Pros
- Warner Bros.’ The Conjuring: Last Rites is billed as the “final” story in the cinematic saga of real-life demon hunters, The Warrens, a series that began with James Wan’s 2013 The Conjuring ($41.85M opening/$137.4M domestic). With the previous eight films in the franchise having brought in a cumulative $824.47M domestically and over $2.3B worldwide, the “one last ride” angle will, at the very least, boost this title over the last proper Conjuring entry (2021’s The Devil Made Me Do It, $65.6M domestic). Series producers Wan and Peter Safran have been careful not to overdo it while building out The Conjuring Universe, having success with spin-offs starring Annabelle and The Nun as they take a year or two between entries. The first Nun was actually the global peak for these movies at $366M, while the first Conjuring is still the top domestic grosser. We expect another solid Warner Bros. horror opening in line with this year’s Sinners ($48M), Final Destination: Bloodlines ($51M), and Weapons ($43M).
Cons
Conjuring movies specifically featuring Vera Farmiga and Patrick Wilson’s Warrens have been on a downward trajectory since the original film, at least domestically…
- The Conjuring (2013) – $137.4M domestic / $316.1M WW
- The Conjuring 2 (2016) – $102.47M domestic / $321.37M WW
- Annabelle Comes Home (2019) – $74.15M domestic / $231.25M WW
- The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It (2021) – $65.6M domestic / $206.4M WW
Despite big profits from small budgets, that lack of growth is a bad omen. The studio is wise to get out while the getting is good, as opposed to dragging this series into the ground. While we don’t think Conjuring is down for the count, the movies could definitely use a long rest before they are resurrected after demand, ala Final Destination.
2. Weapons
Warner Bros. | Week 5
Weekend Range: $5M – $7M
Showtime Marketshare: 8%
Pros
- Horror smash Weapons held so strong that it singlehandedly carried the month of August, and last weekend only fell -32% for a #1 finish at $10.47M (above initial $10.2M estimates). Now that we’re in its 5th frame there’s obviously no competing with Conjuring’s debut, but we could still be looking at a less-than -50% drop if it continues to hold strong, being the obvious alternative ticket for sold out Conjuring shows.
Cons
- At $135.28M domestic, Weapons is poised this week to pass Final Destination: Bloodlines to become the #2 horror film of the year. Global is $235.78M, plus WB smartly is keeping it in theaters exclusively until September 23, when it arrives on VOD. The only downside now is whether the movie can stick around long enough to get a Halloween boost in October.
3. Hamilton
Walt Disney Pictures | NEW
Opening Weekend Range: $3M – $5M
Showtime Marketshare: 4%
Pros
- After the monster success of KPop Demon Hunters during its very limited theatrical engagement, Disney will hope Hamilton can deliver a second dose of streaming fortunes for theaters. Rights to the “live capture” of Lin-Manuel Miranda’s Tony, Grammy, Emmy, and Pulitzer Prize-winning Broadway hit were purchased by Disney for $75M with the intent of putting it into theaters in 2021. However, the pandemic made the studio pivot to a Disney+ release in July 2020. Now fans of the show will finally get a chance to experience the 3-hour show in theaters as originally intended.
Cons
- Unlike KPop, which had only been on streaming for a few months, Hamilton has been streaming for five years, while the show itself turns 10 this year. Due to that past sell-by date, this event was never going to be as big as Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour ($93.2M opening in 2023).
Source link
