Week 6 NFL straight up, against the spread, and survivor pool picks

For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 6 NFL picks. The team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I’ll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.

Eagles (-7) at Giants: Of the players available to play in this matchup, there is one player on the Giants’ starting offense who is better than the player at the corresponding spot on the Eagles’ offense:

Obviously, the offenses don’t face each other, but it underscores the point that the Giants have very little to work with on offense.

Defensively, while the Giants have a bunch of talented pass rushers, their defense gives up a lot of points and yards: 

 
I believe the Eagles can get their run game going against this team, which will in turn open up the rest of the offense.

On the intangible front, as we reported earlier in the week, Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, and Saquon Barkley had an hours-long conversation about the offense on Monday. On the one hand, it’s probably not great that such a meeting was necessary. On the other hand, it does feel like an acknowledgment from the team’s star players that they need to put aside whatever is going between them personally and work toward the common goal. I think they smoke this “get right” Giants team.

Broncos (-7.5) at Jets: This matchup is in London. The Broncos played their game in Philly, and then went directly to England thereafter. They could be a little travel weary, but the Jets have proven to be little more than a speed bump for their opponents this season.

Cowboys (-3) at Panthers: The Cowboys aren’t bad! At a minimum, they can score. I mean, they’re not really good either, but being “not bad” is good enough against this improving but still bad Panthers team.

A site that I love for making picks is Inpredictable, because it ranks teams based on betting market information. If I see a team that I think is rated too low, then I also think that they are being undervalued by Vegas. Conversely, if I see a team that is being rated too high, then they are being overvalued. The Cowboys are traditionally overrated by Vegas, but I think that has actually swung hard in the opposite direction this year, given their extremely visible trade of Micah Parsons and the general lack of confidence of them as a winning franchise.

But they’re ranked 22 at Inpredictable! That is WAY too low. They’re behind teams like the Cardinals, for example. They are a bargain bet right now. 

Browns at Steelers (-6.5): I like that the Browns just went ahead and traded Joe Flacco, their safety net quarterback, and are going to roll with their rookies the rest of the way. I also like their defense, and they have begun to find a run game with Quinshon Judkins. 

The Steelers just don’t have much offensively. Conspiracy theorist Aaron Rodgers doesn’t throw the ball more than 10 yards down the field anymore, and the Steelers can’t run it. I don’t like their chances of beating many teams by two scores. By that logic, I love getting 6.5 points with the Browns, though I’ll take the Steelers to win.

Cardinals at Colts (-7): The Cardinals are through the super easy part of their schedule, and it’s only going to get harder from here on out.

I don’t think Jonathan Gannon is going to make it through the season.

Rams (-7.5) at Ravens: The Ravens’ inactives last week:

They also put DT Nnamdi Madubuike on IR. Teams that play the Ravens while they’re going through their injury issues have a major advantage over the teams that have to face them later in the season.

Seahawks at Jaguars (-1.5): The Jaguars have pulled out some wild games this season and are a fun story at 4-1. But overall, Sam Darnold is playing really well, and the up until last week Seattle’s defense was balling. I like the Seahawks to win outright as road dogs.

Chargers (-4) at Dolphins: Every freaking year I put some trust this stupid Chargers team, and every year they burn me. A (-4) spread against a horrid Dolphins team looks so tempting, but I’m done being fooled by these losers.

Patri*ts (-3.5) at Saints: The Patri*ts are an up and coming team, with Drake Maye playing well and Mike Vrabel “uglying up” games and leveling the playing field against more talented opponents. In this case, they’re the better team. 

Titans at Raiders (-4.5): The NFL’s INT leaders through five games:

1. Geno Smith, Raiders: 9
2. Jake Browning, Bengals: 8
3. Joe Flacco, Browns/Bengals: 6
4. Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars: 5

The “Geno Smith is a god” wannabe quarterback gurus are awfully quiet. And you know what? What the hell, give me the Titans with no conviction whatsoever.

49ers at Buccaneers (-2.5): A 2.5-point spread indicates that these two teams are similarly matched. They are not. The Buccaneers are a much better football team than the 49ers, in my opinion, with a better quarterback, a better offensive line, and healthier skill position players (even though they themselves are missing a bunch of guys). I’ve been awful against the spread this season, but the one thing so far that I have identified correctly is that the sportsbooks are wildly underrating this Bucs team. I’ll gladly lay 2.5 points.

Bengals at Packers (-14): The Bengals traded for Joe Flacco on Wednesday, and he is expected to start in Green Bay on Sunday against the Packers, a team he already beat earlier this year when he played for the Browns. I actually think Flacco improves the Bengals’ chances of winning this game substantially, which is more of an indictment of how badly Jake Browning played in relief of Joe Burrow.

Still, the Packers are the very obvious survivor pool pick this week, if you haven’t used them yet. Unfortunately, it’ll probably be everyone else’s pick, too, so if they win there’s unlikely to be many survivor participants dropping out.

Lions at Chiefs (-2.5): Am I missing something? Again, a 2.5-point spread indicates that these two teams are similarly matched. They are not. The Lions are clearly the better team, and it’s not as if playing at Arrowhead is some hopeless endeavor, seeing as the Chiefs already have two losses there this season. The Lions do have some important players on their injury report, and the Chiefs are getting healthier, but the Lions have four emphatic wins in a row, and and they have more than enough firepower to compensate for a handful of banged-up players. They’re the best team in the league right now, and if you’re going to give me the best team in the league, plus points, I’ll bite.

Bills (-4) at Falcons: The Bills are coming off a bad, three-turnover home loss to the Patri*ts. I haven’t lost faith that more often than not the Bills are going to put 30+ on the scoreboard, and I don’t think the Falcons can match them. For a team with the firepower to win a lot of games by multiple scores, only laying 4 feels like a decent bargain.

Bears at Commanders (-4.5): This was the matchup in 2024 that ended with Tyrique Stevenson taunting Commanders fans while the Commanders were running a Hail Mary, and the guy Stevenson was supposed to be covering caught the game-winning TD. 

This is also a matchup between the No. 1 and No. 2 overall picks in the 2024 NFL Draft, Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels.

I do have serious concerns with the Commanders’ secondary, and the Bears have receivers to take advantage, but it just feels like the Bears are behind the Commanders in their development as a hopeful contender. Interesting matchup, though!

BYE: Vikings, Texans