- The Seahawks are poised to control the tempo on the ground against the 49ers: Thanks to rookie guard Grey Zabel, Seattle has a new attitude in the run game, posting a top-three PFF run-blocking grade (74.1) this preseason.
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After a long offseason, the 2025 NFL season is finally upon us. Week 1 features several heavy-hitting matchups, including numerous divisional games and a highly anticipated playoff rematch. With so many games on the horizon, it pays to know which underdogs are being undervalued to start the year.
These are the underdogs to target in Week 1.
Editor’s note: Odds sourced from DraftKings Sportsbook
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) (ML: +114)
The Buccaneers’ late-season push in 2024, paired with the Falcons’ collapse, gave them their fourth consecutive NFC South title. But what seems to be lost when looking at the lines for this matchup is that the Falcons covered twice as favorites against Tampa Bay early in the 2024 season. In fact, the Falcons have played some of their most inspired ball against the Buccaneers over the past three seasons, holding a 5-1 record against the spread.
Although these teams finished last season on different trajectories, their rosters look quite a bit different heading into 2025. It’s apparent the Falcons are being undervalued in the equation. The biggest difference lies under center, where Atlanta is poised to start 25-year-old quarterback Michael Penix Jr., a passer with immense upside who finished with the sixth-highest PFF overall grade (87.9) at the position over his small sample as a starter last season. With a strong supporting cast around him in Bijan Robinson and Drake London, Penix steps into a situation where he can thrive early.
Yet, it’s the Falcons’ pass rush — which ranked 30th in PFF pass-rush grade (59.0) last season — that has the biggest chance of swinging this divisional battle. First-round rookies Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. are poised to play a big role, with the latter putting together an explosive preseason headlined by a 22.5% pass-rush win rate and eight pressures.
That could be a problem for Tampa Bay, which will likely be without Tristan Wirfs, the highest-graded pass blocker (93.7) in the NFL last season, due to a knee injury. Although Wirfs has been activated from the PUP list, it remains to be seen how soon he can return to the field. Early indications paint his availability in Week 1 as doubtful. That sets up what should be a favorable matchup for the Falcons at home.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) (ML: +114)
The NFC West divisional schedule starts with a bang as the 49ers head into Seattle to take on the new-look Seahawks. Last season may have ended without either team cementing a playoff berth, but that will do nothing to temper the bad blood between them after they split their matchups in 2024.
Unfortunately for the 49ers, the season opener favors the home underdogs. The problem stems from serious injury concerns for San Francisco, particularly at receiver. With Brandon Aiyuk slated to start the year on the PUP list, Jauan Jennings dealing with an injury during camp amid a request for a new contract and new face Demarcus Robinson facing a three-game suspension, this offense will be light at the receiver position.
To make matters worse for the 49ers, who finished just 28th in team PFF run-defense grade (54.6) last season, Seattle looks much improved on the ground. Thanks to rookie guard Grey Zabel, the Seahawks have a new attitude in the run game, leading to a top-three PFF run-blocking grade (74.1) this preseason.
Issues with tackling plagued the 49ers’ defense throughout the preseason (33.6 team PFF tackling grade), as they logged the second-most missed tackles in August. That will spell trouble against Kenneth Walker III, who holds the second-highest rate of missed tackles forced per attempt (0.27) since he entered the league in 2022.
If San Francisco were to fall behind early due to Seattle’s strong run game, it would likely be difficult to make up ground with limited weapons in the receiving game.
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