Vikings-Steelers predictions: What we’re watching in the first NFL game in Dublin

DUBLIN — The streets are packed. Advertisements for the game are everywhere. On Sunday afternoon here locally and in the morning back in the United States, the Minnesota Vikings and Pittsburgh Steelers will play the first-ever regular-season NFL game in Dublin.

It’s an intriguing matchup of 2-1 teams. Pittsburgh needs a win with a key AFC North stretch looming. Minnesota must create some momentum with another game abroad next week in London. It’s Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers against a team that considered him this offseason. It’s Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores against the team that gave him his first opportunity to coach post-Miami.

What should we expect? As always, The Athletic’s Alec Lewis and Jon Krawczynski are here for a preview.

What I’m watching

Lewis: The environment at Croke Park. It’s the low-hanger, but how could I go with anything else? This monstrosity of a stadium is situated in the heart of a neighborhood. It seats 82,300 fans, and the locals believe that every seat will be occupied for what should be a spectacle. If the airport and town are any indication, the Steelers will be loaded with fans. Purple is swirling around town, too. As absurd as these international trips are, the scene at kickoff will be extraordinary. Gratitude is my feeling to get to witness it in person. I’ll down a pint for you, Jon.

Krawczynski: Yeah, yeah, we’re happy for you, Alec. You’re in Dublin. Congratulations. But while you’re eating bangers and mash and sipping whiskey, I’m here to remind you that there is a game going on over there. I’ll be watching Jordan Addison. He’s back, and at the perfect time. He appeared poised for a breakout season before the suspension. If he can pick up where he left off in camp, he is going to be a big shot in the arm for the offense, and in particular for Carson Wentz as he continues to work his way into the position. Another dynamic weapon is just what this team needs right now.

Biggest concerns

Lewis: Ball security. The Steelers are synonymous with forcing turnovers. It’s their calling card. Case in point: Pittsburgh leads the NFL since 2023 in turnovers forced with 68. It’s no wonder that Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin and Flores developed such a close relationship. Both of their football philosophies hinge on takeaways, traditionally the most predictive statistic for winning. The quickest way the Vikings can lose this game is to give Rodgers more possessions. Running back Jordan Mason must hold onto the ball, and receivers must be mindful of punches coming from all angles. Tomlin has only won 30 percent of his games when the Steelers lose the turnover battle. It’s that significant a key in this game.

Krawczynski: That Alec will get swept up in the pageantry and not make it to the game. Just kidding, I think. My biggest concern is how Wentz plays if he doesn’t get the kind of boost from Isaiah Rodgers and the defense that he got against Cincinnati. That was a historic performance, certainly not one that can be expected going forward. It’s true that Wentz drove the offense down for a touchdown on the opening possession, but the game became so much easier when Rodgers scored his second touchdown. I don’t expect Rodgers to be as mistake-prone as Jake Browning, so Wentz and the Vikings might have to slug this one out.

Most interesting matchup

Lewis: Flores’ defense vs. Rodgers. It’s hard to get a higher football acumen on two sides of a matchup. Last year, the Vikings forced Rodgers into three interceptions in a win over the New York Jets. Minnesota’s approach is evident on tape. Flores wanted Rodgers to have to process the field with late coverage rotations. He threw a curveball at Rodgers in the form of more snaps of 2-man than the Vikings had shown. Rodgers countered towards the end of the game with no-huddle snaps and even quick huddles, sprinting to the line quickly to prevent the Vikings from communicating effectively. Will the Vikings deploy a similar plan this time around? Will Rodgers use pre-snap checks to toy with the Vikings’ plan? The answers here will make this an intriguing battle.

Krawczynski: Mason vs. the Steelers run defense. If there was any doubt, Mason staked his claim to the No. 1 running back spot in Minnesota last week with 116 yards and two touchdowns. He is the complete package, a power runner who can also run away from you in the open field, and a good pass blocker who can probably be used more as a receiver as well. He’s facing a Steelers defense that is giving up 139.3 yards per game. They have struggled to tackle in the early going this season — hard to imagine from a franchise with such a proud history on that side of the ball. Mason is hard for even the best defenses to tackle. Getting him going in Ireland would take a lot of pressure off of Wentz. The last time the Vikings and Steelers played overseas, in London in 2013, Adrian Peterson ran wild. Maybe Mason can do it again.

Most interesting overall storyline

Lewis: How will Wentz look in his second start with the Vikings? He’ll have another elite receiver in Addison. Center Ryan Kelly is expected to return, too. His infrastructure is outstanding, and this Steelers defense looks susceptible to big plays. Pittsburgh plays a hefty amount of single-high safety coverage, opening up swaths of space in the intermediate areas. Thriving may sound a bit too simplistic against a defense that does have T.J. Watt, Cameron Heyward and Darius Slay, but everything is set up for Wentz to improve upon his Week 3 showing. Will he be accurate enough? How well will he scan the field, especially if the Steelers toss out any unexpected looks? These answers matter not only for Sunday but also potentially for next weekend and beyond.

Krawczynski: How good the Vikings have been in their four trips overseas. They’re a perfect 4-0 in international play. It’s a small sample size, but one of the reasons the Vikings agreed to back-to-back games in Dublin and London is that they are confident they have the infrastructure and the plan to succeed. They’re well-coached and the players are bought-in. That’s a good formula for winning in a difficult environment. A lot of teams dread going overseas. There were plenty who laughed when they saw the schedule released. I venture to guess most would want no part of two straight games over there. The Vikings have embraced it. Let’s see if they can continue their good fortune.

How these teams match up from data standpoint

Here is where each team ranks in 2025 in the following categories, using explosive play rate for explosiveness, success rate for efficiency and DVOA’s strength of schedule:

Predictions

Lewis: Vikings 24, Steelers 20. Both defenses have their hands full here, so I’m expecting more points than the experts out West. Turnovers, special teams and a Rodgers heater feel like the three ways the Vikings could lose the game. All of the other marks are in Minnesota’s favor.

Krawczynski: Vikings 27, Steelers 23. Alec and I are on the same wavelength. I’m a little worried about Andrew Van Ginkel’s injury. I love what Addison’s return can mean for this offense. I think Mason can inflict some punishment. So I like the Vikings in this one.

(Photo: Kirby Lee / Imagn Images)