Vikings-Chargers predictions: What we’re watching in intriguing Thursday night matchup

As if the Minnesota Vikings’ schedule hasn’t been wacky enough, they’re now on the hook for a Thursday night matchup in Los Angeles against the Chargers.

It won’t be easy. Two years ago, Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert put on a passing clinic against Brian Flores’ defense. This time around, Los Angeles is searching for momentum after a Week 7 beatdown by the Indianapolis Colts.

What should you expect on a short week? As always, The Athletic’s Alec Lewis and Jon Krawczynski are here for a preview.

What I’m watching

Lewis: The Vikings rushing attack. It was a priority for the third straight offseason, but it’s still not a big part of their identity. Minnesota’s run rate is lower than last season, even though the team has not had solid quarterback play. There have been flashes, however, as Jordan Mason has been efficient. This is more about overall commitment to the run, especially against a Chargers defense that is susceptible (only the Falcons and Cowboys have a lower success rate at stopping the run).

The easiest way the Vikings can create advantageous downs and distances for quarterback Carson Wentz is to generate a vertical push. The Dolphins were able to do so two weeks ago. The Colts torched the Chargers on the ground last week in the red zone. Against a lackluster interior, this is a prime opportunity for the Vikings to do the thing they’ve said they would do for some time.

Krawczynski: The Vikings defense. Here is the bottom line: As long as Wentz is starting at quarterback, bringing some limitations to the Vikings offense, the defense needs to be overpowering. It just hasn’t been at that level for most of the season. The unit has gone three games without forcing a turnover. The group is not generating enough pressure on the quarterback, which is putting too much burden on the secondary in coverage. It has to lead the way right now. Who knows if the offense will become more dynamic or less mistake-prone when J.J. McCarthy returns? They are playing a big-time quarterback with a couple of very productive receivers. The Chargers have injuries to the offensive line and running backs, so they are vulnerable. The defense has to make them look that way.

Thursday night in the City of Angels pic.twitter.com/XfvgSY3Q9F

— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) October 22, 2025

Biggest concerns

Lewis: Justin Herbert. Two years ago, when the Vikings hosted the Chargers at U.S. Bank Stadium, Herbert threw for 407 yards on 40-of-47 passing with three touchdowns and zero interceptions. He is a problem. It’s not just the rocket arm. It’s not just his vision in the pocket. It’s also his escapability. If he evades Vikings tacklers the way Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts did last week, it’s going to be a long night at SoFi Stadium.

Herbert is stronger than you’d think, and his eyes are always scanning when he’s scrambling. The Chargers offensive line is not menacing, but the Vikings have to be mindful of Herbert’s ability to pick them apart via the quick game. Receivers Keenan Allen and Ladd McConkey will find space. Given time, Herbert will find them almost as a replacement for a struggling run game. This is the best quarterback the Vikings have played since Matthew Stafford in last year’s NFC wild-card round.

Krawczynski: Carson Wentz’s ability to bounce back. I think Wentz has been solid since he stepped in for McCarthy. Essentially, he has been just what you would expect from a backup quarterback. There are plays he makes that can help you win games, throws that are on the money and on time, and gutsy scrambles for first downs. And then there are poor decisions, missed targets and turnovers. It hasn’t been great, and it hasn’t been terrible.

But as he spoke after the loss to the Eagles, he openly lamented having to play on Thursday night. I couldn’t agree more with him that the NFL should not have Thursday night games. It’s too hard on the players. But to hear Wentz speak about it the way he did on Sunday told me that his body, which has taken a beating these last few weeks, was certainly not feeling like it could play again in four days. He will play because McCarthy isn’t ready, but it seems like he’s pretty banged up going into this one, and that could affect his play.

Most interesting matchup

Lewis: The Chargers pass rush vs. the Vikings offensive line. Talk to anyone who has evaluated the Chargers, and they’ll tell you that Los Angeles hasn’t applied enough pressure with its front four. The advanced metrics back that up. There is also a reason the Chargers acquired former Ravens edge rusher Odafe Oweh a few weeks ago. I still don’t think this unit can be taken lightly.

For one thing, Khalil Mack played last week for the first time since Week 2. His presence allows the Chargers to get creative with Tuli Tuipulotu, who has the fourth-most pressures in the NFL and had three sacks against Minnesota in 2023. Los Angeles is also one of the more effective blitzing teams. Defensive coordinator Jesse Minter utilizes simulated pressures, sending an off-ball player and dropping a defensive lineman, which can trap the quarterback. If coach Kevin O’Connell leans into the downfield passing game, the Vikings offensive line must hold up.

Krawczynski: Chargers secondary vs. Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. If there’s a bright side to the Vikings’ situation lately, it’s that Wentz has developed good chemistry with Addison. Jefferson is drawing a great deal of attention as always, and that’s giving Addison room to work. He is looking dynamic down the field, always open and with toughness that belies his size. The Chargers have only allowed seven passing touchdowns this season, tied for second fewest in the league. It feels like if the Vikings are going to win this game, Addison or Jefferson will need to break through and find the end zone.

Most interesting overall storyline

Lewis: Can the Vikings prevent a slide? Lose here, and the climb back toward contention will be steep. The Lions are looming next week, then the Ravens. Dissecting the future schedule is always a bit silly, but few easy opponents remain. The only teams with losing records are the Commanders and Giants. Win Thursday night, and it’s possible to convince yourself that the Vikings are more capable than they’ve shown.

Their statistical profile is wild. Offensively, the team ranks 11th in down-to-down efficiency and ninth in explosive play rate. Turnovers and sacks, though, haven’t allowed for any rhythm. Get through this one, and it would make sense to have some optimism with McCarthy set to return.

Krawczynski: What might have been. The Vikings hosted Jim Harbaugh for an in-person interview at the team’s headquarters in 2022 as they conducted their coaching search. It was … an interesting visit, one that helped convince the Vikings that O’Connell was the right man for their organization. It has proven to be a great choice. O’Connell has become one of the brightest young coaches in the league, with a reputation for getting a team to overachieve. His leadership of the organization has been crucial.

Things worked out for Harbaugh as well. He stayed at Michigan, won a national championship and has done well early in his time with the Chargers. How would it have gone if the Vikings had chosen Harbaugh over O’Connell? It’s tough to say. But the Vikings decided they weren’t the right place for Harbaugh’s eccentricities, which, coupled with O’Connell’s success, means they probably did the right thing in the end.

How these teams match up from data standpoint

Here is where each team ranks in 2025 in the following categories, using explosive play rate for explosiveness, success rate for efficiency and DVOA’s strength of schedule:

Predictions

Lewis: Chargers 31, Vikings 26. The Vikings should have an edge defensively in the trenches. They also should be able to run the football. I just think the gap in quarterback play is too vast, and Minnesota hasn’t done enough of late to prove it deserves the benefit of the doubt.

Krawczynski: Heck if I know! At the start of the season, I marked this down as a loss, but the Chargers are definitely beatable right now. But Wentz is unreliable, the Vikings defense has been underwhelming and I just don’t have any idea what is going to happen. Twist my arm and I’ll say that the Vikings, on a short week, having to fly west is not a good combination. Chargers 27, Vikings 24.