Vikings-Browns predictions: What we’re watching with Carson Wentz vs. Dillon Gabriel

WARE, England — In any sport, oddsmakers’ lines typically tell you all you need to know about what they think of an upcoming game. Sunday’s Minnesota Vikings-Cleveland Browns matchup in London stands out in that regard.

The over-under for the game is currently 35 1/2 points, which is not just the lowest of any NFL game this weekend, but the lowest mark of the season. Suffice it to say, points are expected to be at a premium for the two offenses, which will be led by veteran Carson Wentz and rookie Dillon Gabriel.

What will happen when these two sides meet? As always, The Athletic’s Alec Lewis and Jon Krawczynski are here for a preview.

Out in the countryside.

📸: https://t.co/nOmYoed5cv pic.twitter.com/tJAbmft2Mr

— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) October 2, 2025

What I’m watching

Lewis: Brian Flores’ Vikings defense vs. Gabriel. Is this the matchup to build generations of NFL fans across the pond? Not so much. Is this interesting if you’re an in-the-weeds football person? Absolutely. Flores’ unit has been phenomenal against young QBs in recent years. The Vikings have matched up with Caleb Williams, Aidan O’Connell, Bryce Young, Skylar Thompson and C.J. Stroud. Many of them struggled. Pre- and post-snap disguises give them trouble, and pressure adds to their anxiety. Gabriel is interesting in that he’s small and athletic. He’s a lefty who has premium velocity and a fairly quick trigger. In his final college season at Oregon, he rarely produced turnover-worthy plays. Will that mean anything Sunday versus Flores? We’ll find out.

Krawczynski: A Justin Jefferson breakout? After a slow start to the season, Jefferson looked more like his record-setting self with 10 catches for 129 yards against the Pittsburgh Steelers last week. He was this close to breaking a big one, and another week of practice with Wentz should only help build the chemistry there. It may be difficult to find time for routes to develop down the field, but that hasn’t stopped Jefferson before. The Browns have a great defense, but Jefferson was made for matchups like this. He relishes the challenge, and there is no player on the Vikings offense who wants to get this unit moving more than he does. I think we’ll see a determined effort on Sunday.

Biggest concerns

Lewis: Cleveland’s defensive line. This is one of the best position groups in the NFL, going up against a depleted Minnesota offensive line that might be starting an undrafted rookie in Joe Huber. Myles Garrett needs no introduction. You can chip him and try to limit his impact, but he’ll still affect the quarterback at a level that has no comparison. He’s not the only force up front, either. The Browns signed defensive tackle Maliek Collins this spring in free agency, and he has the highest pass-rush win rate among NFL interior defenders. Mason Graham, the team’s first-round pick, is capable. Edge rusher Isaiah McGuire and the team’s backups are more dynamic than you’d think. This unit flies off the line of scrimmage. It stops the run, too. The Browns defense has hit the ball carrier before the line of scrimmage on 62.5 percent of opposing rush attempts, the highest rate of any team through four weeks since 2017.

Krawczynski: Vikings’ penalties. Coach Kevin O’Connell’s frustration seems to be building with all of the mistakes he’s seeing. The Vikings have the second-most penalties in the league; their 37 are one behind the league-worst Jacksonville Jaguars. With the injuries mounting and the offense struggling, they just don’t have the margin for error to keep shooting themselves in the foot. Minnesota is favored in this game, has a bit of an advantage because it has been overseas already and doesn’t have the travel and time-change issues that the Browns will face. One of the ways they can let Cleveland into the game is by committing penalties to short-circuit their own drives or extend those from the Browns. The Vikings just have to start cleaning up their play, and fast.

Most interesting matchup

Lewis: Vikings’ receivers vs. Browns’ cornerbacks. Let’s say the Vikings want to avoid third-and-long situations as much as possible. And let’s say, because they don’t have three of their five starters on the offensive line, they have trouble running the football. What else to do than try to move the football with quick-hitting passes? Wentz would have to read the field well and be decisive and accurate, and the Minnesota receivers would have to separate effectively. Can they do that against the feisty Denzel Ward, Greg Newsome II and Myles Harden?

Krawczynski: Vikings’ offensive line vs. Browns’ front seven. Alec touched on the ferociousness of the Cleveland front, but we also have to mention the biggest issue facing the Vikings. Injuries to Ryan Kelly, Donovan Jackson and Brian O’Neill have decimated the offensive line. Backup center Michael Jurgens is also banged up. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that tight end Josh Oliver will be needed for emergency duty on the line. All of that context makes matching up against Cleveland a daunting proposition. Garrett has been listed on the injury report this week with an ankle injury, which might slow him a bit. Christian Darrisaw is back and playing well. But look out, Carson. It might be a long day in London.

Most interesting storyline

Lewis: Are the Vikings going to come back from 10 days overseas with a 2-3 record? That’d be brutal. They accepted the idea of this trip because they viewed it as a business opportunity and, in another way, a competitive advantage. They’ve already lost one game. But it’d be much worse to lose to a first-time starting quarterback and a team that’s 1-3. The Vikings are also staring down the barrel of a seven-game stretch after their bye against the Philadelphia Eagles, Los Angeles Chargers, Detroit Lions, Baltimore Ravens, Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks. That could be some tough sledding. Also, when will young quarterback J.J. McCarthy return to action? Can the injured offensive line get healthy? The train would need a lot of stabilizing to keep from running off the tracks. I don’t like describing a Week 5 game as a “must-win” but it’d be a gut punch to lose, to put it mildly.

Krawczynski: Kevin Stefanski coaching against the Vikings. He rose to prominence on Mike Zimmer’s staff, becoming a highly respected coach for his even-keeled demeanor and exhaustive work ethic. He got his start as an assistant under Brad Childress, answering phones and helping with administrative tasks. Childress helped him break into coaching. Zimmer retained him when he replaced Childress and promoted him up through the ranks, eventually making him his offensive coordinator. His tenure in Cleveland has been beset by quarterback issues, but he is a sharp football mind who will have a strong game plan ready for his former team. I’m not surprised to see how steady he has been through a tumultuous time in Cleveland. This is the man, after all, who was cool as ice during the bedlam of the Minneapolis Miracle, offering just a small fist bump while the rest of the coaches in the booth were losing their minds. No matter what Flores throws at him on Sunday, he won’t be rattled.

How these teams match up from data standpoint

Here is where each team ranks in 2025 in the following categories, using explosive play rate for explosiveness, success rate for efficiency and DVOA’s strength of schedule:

Predictions

Lewis: Vikings 16, Browns 10. The confidence level is low. Minnesota has the 29th-ranked offense, and Cleveland has the second-ranked defense, according to DVOA. The Browns rank 31st in offense, while the Vikings rank eighth in defense. It’s an immovable object versus an unstoppable force. In past years, it’d be easier to feel comfortable predicting that the Vikings will find a way. There is not much comfort in this pick.

Krawczynski: Vikings 15, Browns 12. I see a sloppy, low-scoring affair between a team starting a rookie quarterback and a mistake-prone offense with a patchwork offensive line. Maybe Isaiah Rodgers takes another pick back to the house. Maybe Will Reichard hits a 65-yarder. However, I think the Vikings will find a way to scrape out a win and head into the bye at 3-2.

(Photo: Charles McQuillan / Getty Images)