There’s nothing quite like a heavyweight championship fight, and that’s what UFC fans will be treated to Saturday when Tom Aspinall makes the first defense of his title against two-time former title challenger Ciryl Gane in the main event of UFC 321. In addition, Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba will battle for the vacant women’s strawweight championship in the card’s co-main event.
Aspinall has been spectacular since entering the UFC, running through opponents with ease en route to capturing the interim heavyweight championship. Aspinall never got a shot to unify the interim title with the full title before former champion Jon Jones retired and vacated the belt, leading to Aspinall being elevated to undisputed champion.
Gane failed to win the title in two previous bids, dropping a decision to Francis Ngannou and losing to Jones by submission in the first round. He now gets what is likely his final opportunity to become UFC champion.
In addition to the two title fights, Umar Nurmagomedov looks to earn a second shot at Merab Dvalishvili and the bantamweight championship when he faces Mario Bautista. Also, a future heavyweight title contender could be established when Jailton Almeida battles Alexander Volkov.
UFC 321 predictions, odds, best bets: Prop picks for the title fights, Umar Nurmagomedov among top choices
Brent Brookhouse
With so much happening on Saturday night, let’s look closer at the full fight card with the latest odds before we get to our staff predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities that you can consider before hitting the sportsbooks.
UFC 320 fight card, odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
- Tom Aspinall (c) -345 vs. Ciryl Gane +275, heavyweight championship
- Mackenzie Dern -155 vs. Virna Jandiroba +130, vacant women’s strawweight championship
- Umar Nurmagomedov -625 vs. Mario Bautista +455, bantamweights
- Jailton Almeida -225 vs. Alexander Volkov +185, heavyweights
- Azamat Murzakanov -115 vs. Aleksandar Rakic -105, light heavyweights
- Nasrat Haqparast -112 vs. Quillan Salkilld -108, middleweights
- Ikram Aliskerov -245 vs. Junyong Park +200, middleweights
- Ludovit Klein -135 vs. Mateusz Rebecki +114, lightweights
- Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady -118 vs. Matheus Camilo -102, lightweights
- Valter Walker -360 vs. Louie Sutherland +285, heavyweights
- Jose Delgado -148 vs. Nathaniel Wood +124, bantamweights
- Hamdy Abdelwahab -425 vs. Chris Barnett +330, heavyweights
- Azat Maksum -375 vs. Mitch Raposo +295, flyweights
- Jaqueline Amorim -410 vs. Mizuki Inoue +320, women’s strawweights
UFC 321 predictions, picks
With such a massive main event on tap, the crew at CBS Sports went ahead with predictions and picks for the main card from Brian Campbell, Brent Brookhouse, Shakiel Mahjouri, Michael Mormile and Brandon Wise.
| Aspinall (c) vs. Gane | Aspinall | Aspinall | Aspinall | Aspinall | Aspinall |
| Dern vs. Jandiroba | Jandiroba | Jandiroba | Jandiroba | Dern | Dern |
| Nurmagomedov vs. Bautista | Nurmagomedov | Nurmagomedov | Nurmagomedov | Nurmagomedov | Nurmagomedov |
| Almeida vs. Volkov | Volkov | Volkov | Almeida | Almeida | Volkov |
| Rakic vs. Murzakanov | Rakic | Murzakanov | Murzakanov | Murzakanov | Rakic |
Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane predictions
Campbell: Despite the pressure firmly on him to live up to the hype that ultimately forced Jon Jones to avoid him, Aspinall couldn’t have asked for a better style matchup than the one he has against Gane. The frustrating timeline that Aspinall has been forced to navigate throughout Jones’ indecision only provided him more time to add to his game. And Gane, who is largely devoid of a threatening ground game, doesn’t possess anything close to the kind of one-punch power that Aspinall has in order to end the fight at any given time. Gane also has a history of folding in big moments and enters his third shot at the title since 2022 on anything but a hot streak. Aspinall may get pushed past the second round for the first time as a pro due to Gane’s movement, but the inevitability of an Aspinall knockout is still very much in play once he finds his timing.
Mahjouri: I think more highly of Gane than most people do, but that isn’t enough for me to side with him. Aspinall is an apex modern heavyweight: athletic, powerful, fast, and skilled. Gane’s takedown defense is his most glaring issue. Ngannou, not known for his wrestling, took him down with a torn MCL. Afterwards, Jones swiftly submitted him, and Alexander Volkov scored 75% of his attempted takedowns against Gane. “Bon Gamin” might be the most visually spectacular heavyweight striker, but he’s not much of a one-shot KO artist. Aspinall has a more well-rounded game and higher finishing potential. I wouldn’t be surprised if the champ gets him down early. Aspinall by submission.
Mackenzie Dern vs. Virna Jandiroba predictions
Campbell: In the four years since their first meeting, Jandiroba has gone 6-1 with wins over one top contender after another. Dern, meanwhile, has gone just 5-4, with just as many flat performances as she has had breakthrough wins. Dern has even gone on record to admit she wouldn’t have felt ready to face Zhang Weili for the belt just yet had the former champion not vacated her title. For all of the flashy submission skills and noted warrior spirit, Dern remains a come-forward and emotional striker whose technique often falls apart the more chaotic a fight becomes. This is where Jandiroba, who might actually be the better wrestler of the two, can fill in the gaps with her well-rounded and very technical style. In elite MMA, momentum matters, and Jandiroba’s five-fight win streak has made her a formidable threat for the belt.
Brookhouse: I don’t feel overly confident in either woman’s chances heading into the fight. Dern sometimes falls in love with her striking, which is not her strength, but she’s probably better than Jandiroba on the feet. On the ground, things are something of a wash, with Dern being the better pure jiu-jitsu player, but Jandiroba may be a bit better at applying jiu-jitsu to MMA. Throw out the 2020 fight because both fighters have evolved since then. I’m rolling with Jandiroba based on Dern’s history of turning in bad performances against a variety of opponents, but I’m not doing it with confidence.
Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista predictions
Brookhouse: The odds are out of line for this fight. Bautista is a very good fighter, but in a way that often gets overlooked. I would not be shocked if Bautista managed to scrape out a win on Saturday. I would not, however, bet on that happening. Nurmagomedov is going to get his takedowns because he’s going to throw a ton of them at Bautista. On the ground, Nurmagomedov should be able to exert enough control to find a submission or just grind away to the scorecards. This fight is Nurmagomedov’s to lose, but I don’t think it’s going to be easy and there may be some bad moments for him along the way.
Mahjouri: Nurmagomedov didn’t lose much stock in his failed bid for the bantamweight title. With a few adjustments, many believe he’s still most suited to beat Merab Dvalishvili. Umar, cousin of UFC Hall of Famer Khabib Nurmagomedov, certainly gave Dvalishvili his toughest title fight. That’s why he should be favored against Bautista. Both fighters are well-rounded athletes who thrive on the scorecards and with submissions. But Nurmagomedov does almost everything better. Striking accuracy and defense, and takedown offense and defense, are stats where Nurmagomedov edges Bautista. It’ll probably go 15 minutes, but Nurmagomedov will have his hand raised.
