The U.S. Open begins Sunday in New York City, and the draws for the men’s and women’s singles have thrown up some blockbuster first-round matches.
The Athletic’s tennis writers, Matthew Futterman and Charlie Eccleshare, analyze an intriguing draw, as well as offering some of their picks for the best matches of the opening days.
Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz’s collision course
The main question for Novak Djokovic, comfortably the third-best player at the Grand Slams for the past year, was always going to be which order he would have to play the two guys above him.
When those two have been as dominant as Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, who have shared the past seven majors, that’s especially the case.
So for Djokovic, cast back in the role of men’s tennis’s “third man,” all eyes were on whether he would end up in the Sinner half of the draw or the Alcaraz one. Given their head-to-head record, he will surely be happier with Alcaraz — especially as he would not meet the Spaniard until the semifinals. Djokovic’s No. 7 seeding meant he could have played Alcaraz as early as the quarters, as he did at the Australian Open seven months ago.
Djokovic won on that occasion, as he did in last year’s Olympic final. The world No. 1, by contrast, dispatched Djokovic in straight sets at Roland-Garros and Wimbledon, and seems a more reliable bet to reach the latter stages of the majors.
Alcaraz has been slightly less consistent, falling in the second round at last year’s U.S. Open against Botic van de Zandschulp. But he has also developed his serve into a pressure release valve, beaten Djokovic in two Wimbledon finals, and come through two potentially discomfiting matches against physically limited opponents to win the Cincinnati Open.
After being thrashed by Sinner at Wimbledon, Djokovic spoke about not having enough gas left in the tank to beat one, let alone both, of the current Big Two in men’s tennis. If someone took out Alcaraz earlier in the tournament, that would be an enormous boost for Djokovic. Defeating Sinner would be an almighty task, but doing so after overcoming Alcaraz looks borderline impossible this year.
Others in the draw might have something to say about Djokovic’s progress, especially Taylor Fritz, who would meet him in the quarters. But aside from a mid-match retirement against Alexander Zverev, the only player not named Sinner or Alcaraz to beat him at a Grand Slam since 2022 is Alexei Popyrin. When? Last year’s U.S. Open, of course.
Can Coco Gauff overcome her serving problems?
Aryna Sabalenka or Iga Świątek, the top two seeds, didn’t want Coco Gauff in their half of the draw at the U.S. Open. Especially Sabalenka, who crumbled under the crush of a pro-Gauff New York crowd two years ago. Gauff can become a force in New York, and loves the atmosphere, especially at night.
But right now, she is in a vulnerable moment. Gauff hasn’t looked convincing since the French Open final, and now she is reconstructing her serve. She’s brought in the biomechanist Gavin MacMillan, who helped Sabalenka fix her serve three years ago when she was about where Gauff is now, double-faulting 20 times every match.
Gauff tapping MacMillan the week before a Grand Slam — arguably her most important tournament as the leading American — could be a sign she didn’t think she had any shot of winning this thing, or maybe even winning matches, in her current state. She was ready to take the long view, trying to fix her serve so she can rely on it for 10 years instead of 10 minutes. That process starts now, even if a massive tournament is just days away.
If Gauff ends up in a semifinal against Świątek, she might feel like she has already won, because she will have registered more wins in one tournament than she has all summer, but solving her serve problems could take months. She knows that. Her team knows that. MacMillan knows that. He doesn’t tweak and tinker. He re-teaches a repeatable, efficient motion. She doesn’t have that. In her mind, getting it as soon as possible is more important than whether she can find a way to beat Świątek in one match in one of what will likely be 80 Grand Slams she plays during her career.
Ben Shelton’s chance to make a mark
Aside from Sinner and Alcaraz, does anyone have a better chance of winning the U.S. Open than Ben Shelton? Or at least, reaching the final?
Shelton has only lost to Sinner or Alcaraz at the Grand Slams this year. He had good chances to take early leads in all three matches. Then he won the Canadian Open, which Sinner and Alcaraz skipped, making something of a statement.
Shelton, the world No. 6, would face Alcaraz in the quarters. It is not the easiest draw — he might have preferred landing in Taylor Fritz’s quarter — but he would probably take it if it means avoiding Sinner. As for Fritz, he may have to go through Djokovic to make the semis and the world No. 4 is 0-10 against the Serbian.
The percentages would suggest all of this is moot. Sinner and Alcaraz are levels above everyone else — but things happen in New York. Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal never faced each other here. It’s the back end of the season. It’s hot and crowded and noisy. It’s the tournament with an “if-this-man-should-fall” vibe.
Sinner and Alcaraz are probably going to meet in the final but Shelton might fancy his chances on a hard court in front of a frothy Ashe crowd against Alcaraz — at least, more than against Sinner, who is 21-0 in the last three hard court majors.
Ben Shelton has lost to either Jannik Sinner or Carlos Alcaraz at the past three Grand Slams. (Seth Wenig / Associated Press)
Matt Futterman’s matches to watch:
Novak Djokovic (7) vs. Learner Tien: The 24-time Grand Slam champion, who hasn’t played a singles match since Wimbledon, likely under the lights on Ashe, against a promising young American lefty with a knack for top-10 upsets on his favorite surface. Sign me up.
João Fonseca vs. Miomir Kecmanović: Fonseca is an outrageous 19-year-old talent from Brazil in his first U.S. Open main draw. There are an estimated 500,000 Brazilians in the New York area. This will be loud.
Coco Gauff (3) vs. Ajla Tomljanović: Gauff is beatable. Tomljanović ended Serena Williams’ career on Ashe three years ago. She won’t be afraid of facing Gauff and 24,000 fans
Can Iga Świątek capitalize on a lopsided draw — against her?
The women’s draw looks bottom-heavy, with all three of this year’s Grand Slam winners in that half. Gauff and Madison Keys are slated to meet in one of the quarterfinals, with Amanda Anisimova due for a rematch of the Wimbledon final that Świątek won 6-0, 6-0 a month ago. Świątek, full of confidence after winning at the Cincinnati Open, doesn’t have too many banana skins until that point.
In the top half, Sabalenka will be pretty pleased with the three other high seeds being Jasmine Paolini, Jessica Pegula and Mirra Andreeva — players she has a lot less baggage against than the quartet above, three of whom have beaten her at the slams this year. Sabalenka will want to avoid Elena Rybakina, a possible quarterfinal opponent. Rybakina thrashed Sabalenka 6-1, 6-4 in Cincinnati last week and is not afraid of the world No. 1.
In the fourth round, Sabalenka is slated to meet the big-hitting Clara Tauson, another player who has beaten her this year. Leylah Fernandez might also be waiting in the third round but if Sabalenka can get through that tricky mid-section, she would look a strong favourite to reach the final. For Świątek, she might relish the prospect of facing all these top players and acquiring the match-toughness that Sabalenka might get less of from her later rounds.
From wild cards to main draw threats
Lois Boisson and Victoria Mboko have made good on the wild cards they received from their national tennis federations this year. Boisson took hers all the way to the Roland Garros semifinal. Mboko took hers to the Canadian Open title.
Those achievements earned them the ranking points required to enter directly into the main draws without any charity. Both had to play qualifying at Wimbledon. Mboko survived. Boisson did not.
Mboko’s triumph in Montreal has earned her the No. 22 seed, supposedly protecting her from facing the highest quality opponents in the early rounds — no luck there. The 18-year-old has drawn two-time Grand Slam champion Barbora Krejčíková in the first round.
Krejcikova has not been in Grand Slam-winning form for a while and has battled injuries the past year, but she won three matches in Cincinnati. This might be a tough ask for Mboko, who could feel the pressure of expectation for the first time.
As for Boisson, can her game transfer to a hard court? She has drawn Viktorija Golubic of Switzerland in the first round.
Victoria Mboko earned herself a seeding for the U.S. Open by winning the Canadian Open, a WTA 1000 event one rung below a Grand Slam. (David Kirouac / Imagn Images)
Can anyone else challenge Alcaraz and Sinner?
Of those just below Sinner, Alcaraz and Djokovic, Fritz and No. 5 seed Jack Draper are theoretically the most likely to have a deep run — not just because of their ranking, but their pedigree, too. Fritz reached the final here last year, while Draper was a semifinalist. Both look entirely at home on this surface and in these conditions.
Fritz appears to have a relatively straightforward passage to the quarters, with the out-of-form No. 16 seed Jakub Menšík the highest other seed he could face before then. He could also face the similarly out-of-form No. 21 seed Tomáš Macháč or Fonseca in the fourth round.
Meanwhile, Draper, who hasn’t played since Wimbledon, has some dangerous opponents in his quarter. The exciting Canadian No. 31 seed Gabriel Diallo is his slated third-round opponent, while one of the Italians, Lorenzo Musetti or Flavio Cobolli, could await in the last 16. Draper could also play the huge-serving Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard at that stage. He opens up against a qualifier or lucky loser.
Alexander Zverev is the No. 3 seed but has been unconvincing since reaching the Australian Open final in January. He has Alex de Minaur, Karen Khachanov, and Andrey Rublev as the highest-ranked players in his quarter. Were it not for his ropey form this year, he would be a big favourite to work his way through that and set up a likely semifinal against Sinner. But at present there are few certainties for a player who knows he needs to be more aggressive but fighting his more conservative instincts.
Charlie Eccleshare’s matches to watch:
Venus Williams (WC) vs. Karolina Muchová (14)
The most exciting wild card in the draw by a distance, up against a player with a throwback game that wouldn’t have looked out of place when Williams made her tour debut 31 years ago. Muchová was a semifinalist last year, and is a mighty fun watch — this should be very entertaining.
Barbora Krejčíková vs Victoria Mboko (22)
After her thrilling run to the Canadian Open title, Mboko is looking to back that up with her first run to the second week of a Grand Slam. A former Wimbledon champion and two-time major singles champion with plenty of know-how stands in her way.
Reilly Opelka vs Carlos Alcaraz (2)
OK, hear me out. I know recommending someone with as big a serve as Opelka’s might sound like a wind-up, but he’s also the classic “on his day” opponent. Even a five-time Grand Slam champion might struggle — or at the very least, be forced to produce some magical defense.
U.S. Open 2025: Women’s singles draw
U.S. Open 2025: Men’s singles draw
Which matchups are you looking out for? Let us know in the comments.
(Top photo of Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz: William West / AFP via Getty Images)
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