EJ Antoni, nominated by President Donald Trump Monday to become the next commissioner for the Bureau of Labor Statistics, suggested that the agency should suspend its monthly jobs report, claiming it is unreliable and frequently overstated.
Antoni, in an interview with Fox Business News that took place before his nomination and was published Tuesday, said the BLS should instead publish quarterly data after it had been revised until BLS can ensure its monthly jobs data is more accurate.
“Until it is corrected, the BLS should suspend issuing the monthly job reports but keep publishing the more accurate, though less timely, quarterly data,” he told Fox Business. “Major decision-makers from Wall Street to D.C. rely on these numbers, and a lack of confidence in the data has far-reaching consequences.”
Trump fired former Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner Erika McEntarfer after the July jobs report showed weak growth that month and included revisions for May and June that were historically large. Trump claimed, without evidence, the revisions constituted a “scam” and a vendetta against his presidency.
Antoni told Fox he disagrees with Trump, saying he doesn’t believe the BLS intentionally manipulated the jobs data. But Antoni has criticized the BLS’ approach to data collection, noting that revisions to monthly jobs reports have been significantly larger since the pandemic. However, the May and June revisions were not unprecedented.
May’s jobs total was revised lower to 19,000, down from an initial estimate of 139,000 — a total revision of 120,000 jobs. For the June jobs total, the BLS on Friday said the US economy added just 14,000 jobs, down from a preliminary estimate of 147,000 — a revision of 133,000 jobs.
The BLS tracks each month’s revisions dating back to 1979, but introduced a new probability-based sample design for revisions in 2003. Between 1979 and 2003, the average monthly revision was 61,000 jobs. Since 2003, the average monthly revision is only a slightly more accurate 51,000 jobs.
Economic data is frequently revised — especially as more comprehensive information becomes readily available — to provide a clearer, more accurate picture of the dynamics in play. Measuring economic activity, however, has grown more challenging in recent years, because of the seismic impact the pandemic had on global supply chains and US businesses and households.
Still, one of the most illustrative examples of ongoing revisions is the BLS’ labor market data and, specifically, the closely watched jobs report.
When the market-moving jobs report (which is composed of two large surveys) is released, that initial estimate is often based on incomplete data and thus will be revised twice further in the two jobs reports that follow, as the BLS receives more information.
In addition to the surveying, the BLS also incorporates methodology to try to capture employment activity at new businesses and those that have closed. Even then, the monthly numbers aren’t final and fully comprehensive.
Every year, the BLS conducts annual benchmark revisions to replace these sample-based employment estimates with fuller employment counts as recorded in the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (a more comprehensive, but incredibly lagging read on labor market activity that uses quarterly tax reports, not surveys).
This is a developing story and will be updated.
