The Cavs and Thunder are among the early favorites to reach the 2026 NBA Finals.
From time to time, NBA.com’s writers will share their takes on the biggest storylines and trends around the league.
Who’s headed for the 2026 NBA Finals?
Steve Aschburner
Thunder-Cavaliers: Begin with the end in mind, the efficiency experts tell us. So, let’s cut through 1,230 regular-season games, another six for the SoFi Play-In Tournament crowd and three rounds of playoffs to address the really big question: Who’s left standing by late June?
My hunch is this remarkable run of championship parity – seven different winners over the past seven seasons – ends most reasonably: OKC wins again, defending its 2025 crown in … hmm, six games against the Cleveland. The Thunder return everyone this season, are young enough to stay sufficiently hungry, and have a variety of weapons still growing into their games. Then again, if the Cavaliers want to become the eighth champs in eight years, that would be fine, too.
Brian Martin
Nuggets-Knicks: After pushing the Thunder to Game 7 in last year’s Western Conference Semifinals, this time around it is Nikola Jokić and the bolstered Nuggets that prevail in seven games in the Western Conference Finals to dethrone Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and OKC and guarantee an eighth straight season with a new NBA champion.
While the wide-open East will present new contenders this season, the road to the Finals goes through Cleveland and New York with a clash of All-Star guards in Donovan Mitchell and Jalen Brunson. After falling to Indy in the East Finals a year ago, it is New York’s turn to punch its ticket back to the Finals for the first time since 1999. However, in the Finals, Nuggets in 6.
Shaun Powell
Nuggets-Cavaliers: There’s no chance the Basketball Gods limit Nikola Jokić to a single championship. He’s not only the most impactful player in the game, but his last five regular seasons (three Kia MVPs, two runner-ups) can be favorably compared to anyone else’s five straight regular seasons.
And now the re-tooled Nuggets, who took OKC to a Game 7 last year with injured players and a prehistoric Russell Westbrook, are equipped to return to June with perhaps the best help Jokic has ever had. Give the Joker the ace card over the Cavs, who return to the NBA Finals for the first time since LeBron James left, but lack punch in the Final round, where the team with the best player always seems to win. Nuggets in 6.
John Schuhmann
Thunder-Cavaliers: Nikola Jokić could prove to be a matchup that the Thunder can’t overcome, but they were one of the best teams in NBA history and, with gained experience and added development, they should be even better this year. Defense still wins championships.
It’s easy to forget how good the Cavs were last season. They finished 13 games ahead of the Knicks and were pretty banged up as they lost to Indiana in the conference semis. They need to be about 5% better defensively, but there’s also potential for improvement in Cleveland. Darius Garland and Evan Mobley are just 25 and 24 years old, respectively, a full season with De’Andre Hunter should help, and Lonzo Ball and Larry Nance Jr. are very useful depth pieces. Oklahoma City over Cleveland.
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