GREEN BAY, Wis. – For the Green Bay Packers, Sunday’s clash against the Minnesota Vikings isn’t a must-win game. Close, though.
First, there’s the standings, with the Packers clinging to a spot in the NFC playoff race. Perhaps more importantly, a loss would be Green Bay’s third in a row at Lambeau Field. That would be a devastating reality check. If you can’t beat mediocre teams at home, how can you beat good teams on the road in the playoffs? Heck, how are you even going to get to the playoffs?
Here are three reasons why the Packers will lose to the slumping Vikings on Sunday.
This will be a key factor on both sides of the ball.
When Green Bay’s on offense, will it be able to correctly diagnose Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ pressure packages?
Minnesota is sixth in the NFL in sack percentage even though last year’s Pro Bowl tandem of Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel have gone from a combined 23.5 sacks in 2024 to five sacks in 2025. It’s strength in numbers, with seven players with at least two sacks.
It’s not just the sacks. According to Pro Football Reference, the Vikings have the highest pressure percentage in the NFL. It is relentless. It can come from Greenard on one snap, former Packers linebacker Eric Wilson on another snap and safety Josh Metellus on the next.
“I think Brian does a hell of a job, as good as anybody,” Packer coach Matt LaFleur said. “When you game plan for him, it takes a lot longer than your typical game plan, just because of all the different looks that he presents. It is a real, real challenge.”
Meanwhile, Packers quarterback Jordan Love has been pressured on a slightly greater frequency than the league average. Love is having an excellent season and, especially last week, has made some big-time throws when pressured. But, by and large, he has not been good enough.
Of 35 quarterbacks who have been pressured more than 55 times, Love has the lowest completion percentage in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus. He is 33rd in yards per attempt, is one of four quarterbacks without a touchdown and is 32nd in passer rating.
“We always talk about ‘no flinch,’” LaFleur said. “Can you stand in there and deliver a ball knowing that you’re going to get blasted and you’re going to finish the throw? It’s just part of the deal of when you sign up to play quarterback.
“But I would say that’s a trait that you look for when you’re scouting players. Looking at his college tape and seeing how well he can do that, because some guys will do the old chuck and duck, and typically that doesn’t fare too well. So, for me, when we see a guy that wants to chuck and duck, you kind of like scratch them off the list, because it’s very rare that you see that and somebody be able to come up to this level and stand in there and no flinch.”
Love definitely is not a chuck-and-duck quarterback. He just has not made a lot happen, though he had two gems last week, including the 33-yarder to Savion Williams that helped win the game. He’ll have to be at his no-flinch best against the Vikings.
“He just has a great feel and knack for it,” Flores told reporters in Minneapolis this week. “Their O-line does a great job, but he’s got a natural feel for escaping – well, I shouldn’t even [say] escaping – sliding, moving to avoid pressures or avoiding wherever the pressure’s coming from and then getting out. And his receivers do a really good job of coming back to the ball.”
On the other side of the ball, Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy is last in the NFL in overall completion percentage. He’s been pressured. A lot. He has been challenged by the sixth-highest pressure rate and, statistically speaking, has handled it better than Love. Of 35 quarterbacks who have been pressured more than 55 times, he’s 20th in completion percentage, 21st in yards per attempt and 26th in passer rating.
The Vikings will have their No. 1 line intact for the first time all season. Their offensive tackles are among the best in the game with Christian Darrisaw at left tackle and Brian O’Neill at right tackle. According to PFF, O’Neill has allowed one sack and Darrisaw has allowed zero. Of 57 offensive tackles with at least 250 pass-protecting snaps, O’Neill ranks 10th in PFF’s pass-blocking efficiency, which measures sacks, hits and hurries per pass-protecting snap. Darrisaw is 13th.
Green Bay ranks 13th in pressure rate. Too often, it’s Micah Parsons or bust. The last two games, Parsons has more pressures than the rest of his teammates combined. That can’t happen on Sunday. Even an inaccurate quarterback like McCarthy, if given time, will be able to connect with Justin Jefferson for big plays.
“Getting Micah was a big deal, but I’ve had tons of respect for Rashan Gary since he’s been in the league, the way he plays the game, the physicality,’ Vikings offensive coordinator Wes Phillips told reporters. “Now they’ve got kind of a guy on each edge that you really have to deal with and contend with.”
The Packers have received quality play from starting cornerbacks Keisean Nixon and Carrington Valentine. They haven’t been great with zero interceptions, but Nixon is tied for the NFL lead in passes defensed and Valentine has been an upgrade over injured and expensive Nate Hobbs. PFF charged him with one completion the last two games.
Every week, it’s a challenge, whether it’s Arizona’s Marvin Harrison, Pittsburgh’s D.K. Metcalf, Carolina’s Tetairoa McMillan or Philadelphia’s combo of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. It’ll be a big step up in competition this week, though, against the Vikings’ Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison.
Jefferson is on a Hall of Fame trajectory. The sixth-year pro this year became the youngest receiver to 8,000 career receiving yards. He needs only 14 receptions to break Jarvis Landry’s record of 564 catches through six seasons and 197 yards to break Randy Moss’ record of 8,375 yards through six seasons.
In nine career games against Green Bay, he’s had two massive games – nine catches for 184 yards and two touchdowns in 2022 and eight catches for 169 yards and two touchdowns in 2021 – but has been held to less than 60 yards in five games. He caught six passes for 85 yards against Jeff Hafley’s defense last year at Lambeau.
“You have to try to affect Justin, and that’s going to be affecting the quarterback,” Hafley said. “It’s going to be changing the picture for him. It’s going to be changing the coverages. It’s going to be at times getting your hands on Justin. It’s going to be at times putting two on Justin. It’s going to be at times having Justin one-on-one because you’re doing something else, but that certainly is a challenge.”
While it’s been a struggle at times with first-year starting quarterback J.J. McCarthy, Jefferson’s third in 70-yard games, fourth in YAC, seventh in yards and eighth in 20-yard receptions. With just 15 catches for 145 yards the last three games, you can expect the Vikings to make it a point to get him the ball.
“When we played here last year, that was my first game playing (outside) corner,” Nixon said this week. “I was just learning how to adjust to it. I think the second time we played them in Minnesota, I played a lot better. I’m definitely comfortable at what I do now. Great player, but you know what time it is.”
Addison, a first-round pick in 2023, had 19 touchdown catches in his first two seasons. Last year at Lambeau, he had a touchdown catch and a touchdown run.
Packers special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia believes his counterpart this week, Matt Daniels, should be a head-coach candidate.
The Vikings’ units are across-the-board better for this matchup. That starts at kicker, obviously, where Minnesota’s Will Reichard is 19-of-21 on field goals, his 90.5 percent success rate ranking sixth among kickers with 10-plus attempts. Green Bay’s Brandon McManus, who is enduring a miserable season, is last.
McManus is off the injury report and will kick this week.
“To me, the confidence he has and the swagger he has and the crap in his neck that he has, I think that was missing for a little bit,” Bisaccia said. “I think now he has confidence he can kick the ball the way he wants to and, hopefully, it’s going to do what he wants it to do.”
At punter, Green Bay’s Daniel Whelan is second in average but 11th in net, due in part to nine inside-the-20 punts vs. five touchbacks. Minnesota’s Ryan Wright is fourth in net average with 15 inside-the-20s and just one touchback.
The Vikings have a stud returner with Myles Price, who ranks second in kickoff-return average and 12th in punt-return average. He has a 61-yard kickoff return and 43-yard punt return on this year’s resume.
Green Bay’s kickoff returner, Savion Williams, is questionable this week and only practiced as limited on Thursday. The punt returner, Romeo Doubs, is back there to catch the ball; anything else is a bonus.
Former Packers linebacker Eric Wilson is a stud on special teams with a blocked punt this year.
“What he’s done, I think really should be looked at in other facets of what we do in the National Football League,” Bisaccia said of Daniels. “The return unit with the rookie is impressive. He’s had three called back. He’s had a 99-yarder called back, a 60-yarder called back. He’s a dangerous player. He’s got great speed. He’s an aggressive guy to the ball. He wants to make plays. He’s somebody we’re going to have to try to manage somehow during the course of the game. …
“They’re really well coached. I think they’re physical, they’re fast. It’ll be a great challenge for us on Sunday.”
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