Three Reasons Why Packers Will Get Upset by Browns

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers are 2-0 after two of the most impressive wins of this young NFL season. The Cleveland Browns are 0-2 after getting trounced last week and going 3-14 last season.

On paper, the Packers should roll. Games aren’t played on paper. Here are three reasons why the Packers will lose to the Browns on Sunday.

The Browns have a tremendous defense. They are No. 1 in the NFL in total defense and No. 1 by a wide margin in rushing defense with just 2.07 yards allowed per carry. Yeah, but who’d they play? Well, last week they faced the Ravens. Last season, Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson was No. 1 in yards per carry and running back Derrick Henry was No. 3. Those two combined 36 yards on 13 carries.

Incredibly, the Browns have allowed negative rushing yards before contact, according to Pro Football Focus. In Week 1, Cincinnati’s Chase Brown rushed 21 times for 43 yards, with 50 yards coming after contact. In Week 2, Henry rushed 11 times for 23 yards, with 27 coming after contact. Added together, the Browns have allowed 91 rushing yards, with minus-20 before contact and 111 after contact.

That runs in parallel to Green Bay’s struggles running the football. While Josh Jacobs ranks eighth in the league with 150 rushing yards, he’s 32nd with 3.57 yards per carry. According to PFF, he has 127 yards after contact.

“I think it’s just about consistency, details, whether it’s staying on blocks or whether it’s running harder,” Jacobs said of that state of the running game. “It’s things that’s easy to fix – very easy to fix. It’s just more so that we’ve all got to be on the same page and locked in to do it. 

“A lot of these teams that we play, we already know that they’re going to load the box. It’s going to be eight to nine guys in there, safety’s going to be flowing hard. It just is what it is. This is what we’ve got to expect so we’ve got to learn how to make adjustments from it.”

Jacobs has the attention of Browns defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, who is one of the best in the business. If he can stop Jacobs, he can potentially take away Green Bay’s play-action passing game, as well.

“Jacobs is their lead ball-carrier and sort of an old-school, full-time running back,” Schwartz told reporters in Cleveland this week. “Breaks a lot of tackles. Really strong, great contact balance and really, really good vision. He presses the hole as good as any running back, if not better than any running back, in the league. We got to be really physical at the line and we can’t peek out of gaps because he can find those holes and find creases that way.”

Good defense on first down, obviously, improves the defense’s chances on third down. No different than the Packers, that’s how the Browns want to play – stop the run, create third-and-long and let their pass rushers go on the attack.

Cleveland has arguably the best pass rusher in the NFL with Myles Garrett. Garrett ranks No. 1 in NFL history in sacks per game, his 0.89 just ahead of T.J. Watt and Reggie White, according to Statmuse.

The problem for the Packers is it’s just not Garrett. In Week 1, Zach Tom and the Packers silenced Lions defensive end Aidan Hutchinson. Without another premier player up front, the Lions couldn’t disrupt Jordan Love’s rhythm. The Browns have other players. Maliek Collins is one of the best pass-rushing defensive tackles in the game. With so much focus on Garrett, fellow defensive end Isaiah McGuire has produced nine pressures – as many as Rashan Gary.

Tom is one of the best offensive linemen in the NFL but he’s either going to be inactive or slowed by an oblique injury. Will the Packers be able to protect Love without sacrificing their tight ends and running backs to protection and limiting Love’s options?

“There are always opportunities to get the quarterback, regardless of whatever team we face,” Garrett said. “It’s just a matter of putting them in situations in which they have to hold the ball. He wants to throw the ball deep. So, making it where he feels like he has to make a play and taking the running game out of it.”

Love is off to a strong start to the season but he hasn’t been challenged like how he’ll be challenged by the Browns. For the first time this season, he might be asked to win the game. That will start on third down, where Green Bay ranks only 17th.

“Watching film, they don’t do a whole lot of crazy coverages,” Love said. “It’s one of those defenses where it’s like, ‘Hey, we’re going to run this. You guys got to come out and find ways to stop it.’ I think they’ve done a really good job against the run and, obviously, their rush shows up on tape all over the place.

“They’re a really good defense. They’ve got good players all over the place and the scheme and the scheme is (run) really well, so you don’t see a lot of wide-open guys or dropped, busted coverages, things like that.”

The Packers’ defense turned the high-powered offenses fielded by the Lions and Commanders into mincemeat. The Browns’ offense, on the other hand, is one of the worst in the league.

That doesn’t mean there won’t be challenges, though. And in what could be a low-scoring game, it might only take a play or two.

Working in Cleveland’s favor is its No. 1 offensive line might be blocking for its No. 1 running back for the first time this season.

Former All-Pro right tackle Jack Conklin suffered an elbow injury early in Week 1 and was inactive in Week 2 but practiced all week. Like Conklin, left guard Joel Bitonio is questionable. He has been selected for seven consecutive Pro Bowls, with first- or second-team All-Pro honors five times during that span.

At running back, second-round pick Quinshon Judkins made his NFL debut last week. He carried 10 times for 61 yards against the Ravens, including a 31-yarder. The rest of Cleveland’s running backs have a combined 31 rushes for 77 yards with a long of 8. So, he’s a real X-factor.

“He’s kind of what you saw in college,” Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley said. “He’s a strong back, he runs hard, he can catch the ball out of the backfield. He broke a couple tackles down there in that game. I thought he got better as the game went on, so I’m sure they’ll try to get him going even more. We’ll be prepared for him to get more touches this week than he has.”

No different than Green Bay with Jacobs, the addition of Judkins should make things easier for the rest of the offense, which includes talented playmakers at receiver (Jerry Jeudy) and tight end (David Njoku).

In the first two games, Green Bay’s defense has been a swarming, dominating unit. This week, the challenge is the first road game of the season.

“The challenge now is can we take this on the road and do it,” Hafley said. “Give our fans and our crowd (credit). What they’ve done to light up that stadium from the first third down on, that’s electrifying and that’s appreciated, and our guys have fed off of that. We’re not home this week, so the challenge is can we go on the road and can we play with the same energy?

“Because we’re going to have to bring it. This is the first time we’re taking our show on the road, and we better bring our own juice and we better bring that energy because it’s not going to be loud on our third down. We’re going to have to bring it ourselves, and that’s going to be a challenge.”