Back in August, we wrote that the success of Nebraska’s season could come down to four games against the “M” schools: Michigan, Michigan State, Maryland and Minnesota. The suggestion was that a positive result — say 3-1 — through these four games could set up Nebraska for its best season in a decade.
We still believe that to be true.
The Huskers are 1-1 in the first two “M” games and face a critical game Saturday at Maryland, Nebraska’s first true road game of the season. Huskers coach Matt Rhule is only 2-8 in Big Ten road games.
Saturday’s game (2:30 CT) presents an interesting dichotomy. You have long-time traditional powerhouse Nebraska going against a Maryland team new to national consideration for its football program.
Both teams are 4-1. The Huskers are 6.5-point favorites at most sportsbooks.
For every game, we will give you three reasons the Huskers will win and three reasons they won’t. Unlike previous years, perhaps, we won’t see Maryland swooning at the sight of the Huskers.
Offense
The Huskers have the 11th-ranked scoring offense in college football, averaging 42.4 points per game. If you take away the Akron and Houston Christian games, the Huskers have averaged 28.3 points per game against three FBS opponents. That would rank the Huskers 70th.
Still, Nebraska can find the end zone and its offense might be enough to carry the Huskers to victory.
Nebraska’s offense heavily leans on Dylan Raiola and the passing game. The Huskers, 30th in the national in total offense, are eighth in passing offense (320.2 yards per game), and 101st in running offense (129.2 yards per game).
Maryland’s total defense ranks 41st (318.4 yards per game). Offense wins.
Defense
The Huskers have the nation’s No. 1 passing defense and the 11th-best overall defense. Maryland’s offense is ranked 97th. This looks like a clear advantage for the Huskers.
Nebraska’s pass defense might be a handful for Maryland true freshman quarterback Malik Washington. Washington is talented and has tasted success this season.
An overwhelming feeling says savvy Nebraska defensive coordinator John Butler will cook up schemes to control Washington and pressure him up the middle and contain him on the edges.
Tradition
Maryland has had three winning seasons in the last 10 years. The Terps haven’t won nine games since 2010.
Tradition isn’t something you dial up in a week or two, or even in a season or two. When current Nebraska players talk, they often talk about the legacy of the uniform they’re wearing and restoring the five-time national champion Huskers back to elite status.
Tradition can be a powerful force to overcome.
Malik Washington
The talented freshman quarterback is the best dropback passer the Huskers have faced this season. He’s young, he’s inexperienced but he’s fearless, too. He’s got a strong arm, he delivers the ball on target and he makes good decisions.
His stats are excellent: 110-of-183 passes (60.1 percent) for 1,257 yards, nine touchdowns and only two interceptions. His 183 pass attempts lead the Big Ten.
How Washington plays is how the Terps’ offense plays. If he finds his rhythm and connects with his talented tight end Dorian Fleming, the Terps won’t go away. Fleming has 21 receptions for 171 yards and two touchdowns.
Washington also has several wideouts who have enjoyed success this season.
Bounce-back game
Maryland was 4-0 going into last Saturday’s game against Washington. The Terps led 20-0, and 20-3 going into the fourth quarter. And lost to the Huskies, 24-20.
Was that a traditional football powerhouse overcoming a program not quite sure how to win a big game? Yeah, maybe.
What Maryland does starting Saturday could determine whether the Terps will be a .500-ish team or something greater. If Maryland is for real — or hopes to be — expect a big performance Saturday against Nebraska, an opponent that represents a big-time trophy for the mantel.
The Terps are at an interesting crossroads. Beat Nebraska and keep the magic alive. Lose to Nebraska and, maybe, the rest of the season is a struggle — a feeling with which the Terps are familiar.
Run offense
Since Nebraska’s pass defense is all but impenetrable, Maryland has to look elsewhere. That will be Nebraska’s run defense, ranked a mediocre 88th in the country. Nebraska allows 115.6 yards per game.
But Maryland’s rushing offense averages only 93.2 yards per game, 128th in the nation. Maryland coach Michael Locksley said during the week that running the ball might be the Terps’ best strategy given the strength of Nebraska’s pass defense.
Nebraska’s season goals still are out there. Nebraska caught a break in that Michigan’s Bryce Underwood and Washington are going to be a terrific quarterbacks, but maybe not now as true freshmen. Both will be awesome as sophomores and even better as juniors. Nebraska contained Underwood but even though Washington is more developed, the Huskers should prevail.
Nebraska 31, Maryland 17.
Season record: 5-0.
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