The defending Super Bowl champs are coming to town this weekend, but the Vikings will have reason to believe that they’re capable of sending the Eagles to their third consecutive defeat. Philly, coming off of a primetime beat-down by the rival Giants, looks more vulnerable than expected. At the same time, this will still be quite the challenge for the Vikings against a team that until recently had won ten consecutive games, including three dominant efforts among four wins in last year’s playoffs.
If the Vikings are going to get the job done on Sunday as slight home underdogs, here’s what they need to do.
This feels like the No. 1 priority for the Vikings’ defense against the Eagles’ up-and-down offense, which ranks just 21st in EPA per play thus far. Philadelphia has struggled to get Saquon Barkley going on the ground this season after his incredible 2,000-yard, OPOY season in 2024. Last year, Barkley averaged 5.8 yards per carry and 125.3 rushing yards per game. Six weeks into this season, he’s at 3.4 and 54.2 — a dramatic fall-off.
If there were a week for Barkley and the Eagles’ ground game to get right, it might be this one. The Vikings’ defense easily leads the league in opponent EPA per play against the pass, but is just 25th against the run. Bijan Robinson, Kenneth Gainwell, and Quinshon Judkins have run all over Minnesota this year. The Eagles will undoubtedly try to replicate that success and generate explosive runs via Barkley, who surely hasn’t lost his home run ability.
Working in the Vikings’ favor is that No. 1 linebacker Blake Cashman is expected to return after missing the last four games with a hamstring injury. He’s a major part of their run defense. They could also get outside linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel back from a neck injury, though that’s less certain. Regardless, the Vikings need more out of defensive tackles Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave, among others, against the run.
If the Vikings can limit Barkley and force Jalen Hurts into clear passing situations, their defense could be primed for success. Hurts is certainly capable of making high-level throws, but since the start of last season, PFF has charted him with 29 big-time throws and 23 turnover-worthy plays. He threw a crucial interception last week against the Giants, his first of the season, and he’s struggled to get on the same page with No. 1 receiver A.J. Brown this year. Hurts holds onto the ball (averaging 3.12 seconds to throw, fourth-highest in the league) and thus will take sacks (18 of them, tied for third-most).
The Vikings need to slow down Barkley and make Hurts throw the ball, because that’s where Brian Flores’ aggressive defense can come up with sacks and potential takeaways.
Offensively, the Vikings will also look to get the ground game going with Jordan Mason, who could have success against an Eagles run defense that struggled against Cam Skattebo last time out and hasn’t been dominant this year. Then again, star defensive tackle Jalen Carter will be back after missing that Giants game. He’s someone the Vikings have to be aware of at all times.
The biggest mismatch in favor of Minnesota’s offense this week is their receiving duo against the Eagles’ leaky secondary. Philadelphia’s No. 1 cornerback, Quinyon Mitchell, is questionable to play this week due to a hamstring injury. If he can’t go, Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison would line up across from outside corners Adoree’ Jackson and Kelee Ringo, both of whom have sub-50 PFF coverage grades this season. Two other players with sub-50 coverage grades? Eagles starting safeties Reed Blankenship and Andrew Mukuba (a second-round rookie).
Cooper DeJean is a very good football player, but he primarily lines up in the slot. Even if the Mitchell ends up playing, the Vikings will like their chances with Jefferson against Mitchell and Addison getting the Jackson or Ringo matchup on the other side. Regardless of who’s playing quarterback for Minnesota — and I expect it to be Carson Wentz against his old team — there will be opportunities to be had in the downfield passing game against an Eagles team that doesn’t boast much in terms of pass rush outside of Carter and Moro Ojomo in the middle.
This is an obvious one that applies to every team in every game, but it’s worth mentioning again because of how critical it is to the Vikings’ success. When the Vikings haven’t hurt themselves with negative plays on offense, they’ve moved the ball effectively and put points on the board. But they’ve been plagued all year by things like sacks and turnovers and penalties that have made it hard to sustain success. That’s been a point of major emphasis for Kevin O’Connell over the bye week.
Whether it’s Wentz or McCarthy, the Vikings need their quarterback to stop taking so many sacks, which often kill drives. They need to clean up the penalties, where they rank second in the league (in a bad way) with 8.8 per game. A big part of that is avoiding pre-snap procedural infractions on offense, such as false starts and illegal motions. And they have to avoid turnovers, like their two running back fumbles they were lucky to overcome against the Browns.
Limit Barkley, feed Jefferson and Addison, limit mistakes, and the Vikings will win this game. Of course, that’s a lot easier said than done.
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