Welcome to the Week 3 edition of Snaps & Pace — winner of the 2024 FSWA Best Football Series — where we examine trends in play volume and game pace. It is meant to be a 30,000-foot view of upcoming contests, while identifying main-slate matchups that will — and will not — be played on fertile fantasy soil. For a primer on why this is important, click here.
Sunday afternoon schedules do not get larger than what’s on tap for Week 3. No slate-diluting international, doubleheader, or Black Friday games during a bye-free week leaves us with a meaty 13 matchups to chew on. God is good.
On the heels of a Week 2 scoring bounce back that delivered an additional 8.6 points per game, this week’s main slate is following a tough act — but not a voluminous one. Teams are averaging one fewer play per game than last season (62.2), which was the lowest-volume season since 2008 (61.9).
The Dolphins and Vikings have yet to run their 100th play, and Week 2 saw two games produce fewer than 110 combined snaps. Sub-110-snap games occurred only five times all of last season, and four times each in 2023 and 2022. With Joe Burrow lost essentially for the season, J.J. McCarthy kneecapping the Vikings’ pace before spraining his ankle, and Jayden Daniels hobbled, it was not a banner week for teams that typically pile up plays. Still, we must persist in seeking the snap-fertile grounds… so let’s dive in.
“Situation neutral” is meant to provide context and refers to plays while the game is within seven points during the first three quarters (minus the final two minutes of the first half). Neutral Pace (average play-clock seconds used), Neutral Pace Over Expected (POE), and Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) are based on neutral game script and are provided by our data science team.
Up In Pace | Slow-Paced Slogs | Pace Notes
Up In Pace
Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears
Following a muted season opener in which a weather delay and the Eagles’ Lombardian approach dampened point and play volume, the Cowboys delivered one of their more typical game environments. With 130 combined snaps and 74 total points, even before a full overtime period, the Giants’ Week 2 trip to Dallas was a fantasy fiesta. The Cowboys operated at the fourth-fastest neutral pace of the week despite keeping their no-huddle offense in the garage. Still, with the neutral pass rate ticking up from 57% to 65% this week — which would have ranked first a year ago — the Cowboys started clicking. Since the third-quarter weather delay last Thursday, Dallas went five straight scoreless drives into the second quarter on Sunday, mustering only 23 plays, before converting on seven of their next nine possessions. The leaky defense surrendered eight explosive passes, as Russell Wilson got more Cowboys deep than Debbie Does Dallas.
The good news for the winless Bears is Ben Johnson still has plenty of time to smooth out the rough edges, and his recent history against Dallas is positive for us. Johnson’s Lions hung 47 points and 492 yards on the Cowboys in last season’s high-play-volume contest (131 combined snaps). Last week, his Bears showed real signs of hope from a pace perspective, sprinkling tempo into their drives throughout — particularly after first downs. Chicago led the league in neutral pace and was third on the week in no-huddle rate, even with additional hurry-up plays wiped out by penalty. Their opponent operated slowly between plays, and the Bears’ elevated tempo did not infuse that matchup with snap volume — but this Cowboys offense moves far faster. The Bears are also allowing the sixth-highest rate of 15+ yard plays and are down stud CB Jaylon Johnson, with standout slot Kyler Gordon in question. Considering their pass rush has stunk, it’s a juicy combination. Both Chicago’s (62) and Dallas’ games (60.5) rank top four in average total points, so the main-slate-high projected total is no surprise. This is a clear “fire all cannons” spot.
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