There may not be a jobs report at all this week — so economists are homing in on this data instead

In what could be the last piece of federal jobs data released this week if the government shuts down, a new report Tuesday showed that the number of available roles remains low for the year, a sign that opportunities continue to dwindle for Americans looking for work.

Tuesday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed that the number of available jobs increased slightly to 7.23 million at the end of August from an upwardly revised 7.21 million. Job openings as a share of total employment remain at five-year lows, Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows.

Tuesday’s data further confirmed that the US job market has grown increasingly stagnant. Excluding the onset of the pandemic in early 2020, the rate of hiring fell in August to 3.2%, matching the lowest rate since 2013, BLS data shows.

“That’s the worst level since the Great Recession era, when unemployment was 7% or higher, with the exception of April 2020,” Heather Long, Navy Federal Credit Union’s chief economist, wrote in a note on Tuesday. “The job market has been frozen for close to a year now, and it appears to be getting worse for job seekers. Americans feel stuck in this economy without job opportunities or hopes of buying a home. This needs to change.”

The monthly report carries added weight this week and comes at a precarious time for the economy: If the federal government does shut down at midnight, the release of crucial labor market data such as Friday’s jobs report, could be delayed.

The BLS and other federal statistical agencies are expected to have a skeleton crew and delay the gathering, analysis and release of economic data if government funding lapses.

Key reports that could be postponed this week include the Labor Department’s weekly jobless claims and the September jobs report.

The already crucial monthly employment snapshot has become even more important. Recent months’ data has shown the “low-fire, low-hire” environment to be even more anemic than previously thought, stoking concerns that the labor market is cracking.

That spurred the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates earlier this month, and the September jobs report is “arguably the most important piece of information” for central bankers when they meet in October, Bank of America economists wrote earlier this week.

Still, if a shutdown were to occur for an extended period of time, it could have a cascading effect on crucial economic data that could waylay or gum up reports for months to come.

“There are very specific processes (by statistical agencies) that need to be adhered to, and when you throw a wrench into that process, it has a ripple effect across a whole suite of reported statistics,” Brett Ryan, senior US economist at Deutsche Bank, said in an interview with CNN on Tuesday.

Without the gold-standard economic data, economists, policymakers, investors and others will instead have to lean more heavily on “soft,” survey-drawn data on consumer sentiment, and private sector readouts such as those put out by payroll company ADP, which will be releasing its monthly jobs estimates on Wednesday.

Demand for workers has been on a downward slope for much of this year. In addition to a high-uncertainty environment (driven in part by an unpredictable trade policy, sharp reductions in immigration, and a steep pullback in federal spending), the rise of AI and other technological advances are factoring in to businesses’ hiring plans.

In August, job openings plummeted by 115,000 positions to 188,000 in construction, which logged its second-largest monthly decrease of openings on record.

Hiring, however, picked up slightly, as did the number of workers who quit. Construction, which is closely watched as an indicator of economic activity, has been dogged by high interest rates, a persistent housing affordability crisis, deportations of workers and tariff-related uncertainty.

Hiring was listless across most sectors, especially white-collar industries where activity was flat in August, according to Tuesday’s report.

As opportunities dwindle, people are holding on to the jobs they have: The level and rate of voluntary quits dropped to an eight-month low.

One of the few bright spots has been that layoff activity isn’t escalating, and that was the case in August as well.

Still, the overall picture of the labor market remains dour for many Americans, especially the nearly 2 million people who have been searching for jobs for at least half a year.

“All else equal, lower churn can make it harder for new entrants to break into the labor market and can be a drag on average wage growth since finding a new job is often the best way to see better pay,” Elise Gould, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute, wrote Tuesday.

Separate data released Tuesday showed that the slowing labor market is also taking a toll on Americans’ attitudes toward the economy.

Consumer confidence fell 3.6 points in September to a reading of 94.2, The Conference Board said Tuesday, the lowest level in five months.

Respondents’ “appraisal of current job availability fell for the ninth-straight month to reach a new multiyear low,” Stephanie Guichard, senior economist of global indicators at The Conference Board, said in a release, noting that is “consistent with the decline in job openings.”

In the September survey, 54% of respondents said that jobs were “not so plentiful.” Outside of the pandemic era, that’s the highest share since July 2016, The Conference Board historical data shows.