The U.S.-China space race is getting tighter

CNBC’s Investing in Space newsletter offers a view into the business of space exploration and privatization, delivered straight to your inbox. Sign up to receive future editions.

China itself only prevailed with a first crewed space mission back in 2003 — but its  surging space sector has been picking up pace, with coalescing ambitions to put boots on the Moon by the end of the decade. Beijing made significant advances just this month, with the China Manned Space Agency announcing it had successfully carried out the maiden take-off and descent test of its Lanyue lunar lander in Hebei province, on a trial surface designed to simulate the Moon’s gravity and terrain conditions.

Just last week, China’s 176-feet Long March-10 carrier rocket cleared its first static test firing up its seven parallel YF-100K engines at the Wenchang facility in Hainan. Its sister rocket of the same series, the two-stage partially reusable Long March-10a, remains under development with a debut flight penciled in 2026 and plans to serve for crew and cargo transport to China’s Tiangong space station.

It’s been a busy summer: in June, China’s Mengzhou spacecraft — key to its lunar ambitions — passed an escape flight test. Last month meanwhile saw the launch of the ninth Tianzhou-series cargo spacecraft, the Tianzhou-9, to the Tiangong space station.

Along the way, Beijing has reiterated its plans to land its cosmonauts on the Moon before 2030 for scientific exploration — squarely throwing the gauntlet Stateside, where NASA’s Artemis program also scheduled a mission to return U.S. astronauts on lunar ground around 2027. This is a game where, with NASA now setting sights on redder Mars pastures, the U.S. has a roughly six-decade advantage, after the success of the Apollo program.

But question marks linger over both of NASA’s picks for lunar landers. SpaceX’s Starship has had a tumultuous record in the year to date, which it may still vindicate in its upcoming Aug. 24 test launch. Blue Origin is meanwhile still developing the Mark 2 lander and only intends to test launch its precursor — the Mark 1 — later this year. Jeff Bezos’ rocket that will carry the landers is itself only undergoing its second flight next month.

The increasing prominence of the U.S.’ private firms in advancing their space activity is notable, but not singular. While much of China’s space landscape is dominated by state-owned China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, commercial players like Galactic Energy, LandSpace and i-Space — not to be confused with Japan’s iSpace — have also been stepping up to the plate.

“I believe China could beat NASA back to the Moon,” Prof. Quentin Parker, director of the lab for space research at the University of Hong Kong, told CNBC by email. 

“NASA’s Artemis project is facing massive delays, budget problems and leadership issues under the current administration in the US.  This leaves open the distinct possibility that China could land humans back on the moon first,” he added, noting China’s rapid space tech development and “demonstrated mission capacity over the last decade in particular, including the CST and Chang’e and Tianwen missions.”

As with the first space race, at stake isn’t just national prestige — U.S. officials and analysts have expressed concerns that China’s space ambitions are inevitably linked to militarization. It hasn’t been that long since the spring comments of Gen. Chance Saltzman, chief of space operations at the U.S. Space Force, that “the [People’s Republic of China] has been developing what we’ve kind of, tongue in cheek, called a ‘kill web’. And it’s nothing more than a network of hundreds of satellites that are a sensor network that provide real-time updates targeting quality information of our force.”

• Space becomes the new battlefront — Hackers backing the Kremlin hijacked an orbiting satellite and beamed down footage from Russia’s Victory Day parade to Ukrainian televisions — as modern warfare moves to space. — Associated Press
• Kazakhstan’s Baikonur spaceport resurges — The Astana government is looking to upgrade the Baikonur Cosmodrome, which is still largely leased out to Russia, into a top-of-the-line spaceport for startups and attract foreign investment. — Euractiv
• UK independent space agency to merge with DSIT in cost-savings push — The U.K. Space Agency will be absorbed by the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology in April, amid a broader push to reduce costs and red tape. — BBC
• What is the U.S. ‘orbital carrier’? — Newsweek examines the U.S. Space Force’s “orbital carrier” that looks to pre-position multiple spacefaring vessels. The carrier is being designed by Seattle-based startup Gravitics. — Newsweek
• Uranus has a (tiny) new moon — Scientists have found a new moon orbiting Uranus with a diameter of just six miles, upping the planet’s observed satellite family to 29. The discovery was made with NASA’s James Webb space telescope. — NASA

• Something old, something new — Jim Cantrell looks back at a decade of space activity between established and new players, as government and commercial industry programs increasingly join forces. — Space News
• LandSpace rocket fails test launch  — LandSpace’s methane Zhuque-2E Y3 rocket failed its test launch out of northwestern China. The company previously scored the spot of first firm to launch a methane-liquid oxygen rocket into orbit. — Reuters
• Space tech startups make defense shift — Space tech startups are now increasingly “repositioning for the defense market,” says VS Seraphim Space CEO Mark Boggett, as venture capitalists and investors focus on security and AI. — Sifted
• China’s Long March-10 completed rocket test — China’s Long March-10 carrier rocket successfully saw through its first static fire test, according to the China Manned Space Agency, hitting a new milestone in Beijing’s crewed lunar exploration program. — CGTN
• Firefly Aerospace looks to launch Alpha rocket out of Japan — Firefly Aerospace is considering options to open its first Asian offshore launch site in Japan, from where it looks to run flights for its Alpha rocket, according to a Japanese company operating a spaceport in northern Hokkaido. — Reuters

• Five space stocks with soaring upside — MarketBeat looks at five space companies with huge upside potential as the sector evolves over the next decade. — MarketBeat via MSN
• SpaceX prepares for next Starship launch — SpaceX has chosen Aug. 24 as the next test launch date for its giant Starship rocket, which has had an explosive record with take-offs this year to date. — Ars Technica
• Blue Origin’s New Glenn to head out with NASA Mars probes next month — On its second-ever launch, Blue Origin’s New Glenn will depart with twin NASA Escape and Plasma Acceleration and Dynamic Explorers (ESCAPADE) probes on Sept. 29. — Space.com
• Can Rocket Lab go higher? — Rocket Lab has attracted investor attentions after gaining more than 70% in the past three months, while the upcoming test launch of the Neutron rocket and the company’s operating costs shape its outlook. — Zacks