The Teams and Coaches Who Can Actually Win College Football National Titles

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football, where Auburn athletic director John Cohen keeps getting material for caustic letters to the Southeastern Conference office. First Quarter: The Swift, Sudden, Stunning Fall of James Franklin.

In the olden days—like, 2021—there were about 15 programs that were generally considered to have what it takes to win a national championship. Even that number was generous, including a few schools in talent-rich locations that hadn’t done it in a long time. Or maybe ever. 

Today, with NIL and the transfer portal and wider playoff access, there is more upward (and downward) mobility. Just about all things are possible. Indiana (11) is the exemplar of that, rocketing from the losingest program in FBS history to a playoff appearance last year to No. 3 in the land halfway through this season. 

Whether it’s sustainable everywhere depends on long-term booster commitment to funding a roster, and the ability to find and retain elite coaches. But anyone with power-conference membership should be able to envision a run. It’s possible.

But some places should be more sustainable than others. The four longest-lasting national championship droughts at places that have had reasonable expectations of winning it all: 

Oregon (12)

Last title: Never. In historical terms, the Ducks are a recent addition to this list. The program was bad for most of its first century of existence before Rich Brooks (and Phil Knight) breathed life into it in the 1990s. The ramp-up has been swift and sustained this century, with only two losing seasons and 14 years of double-digit wins.

Oregon doesn’t have what most older blueblood programs have, which is proximity to massive amounts of talent. But the Ducks have basically annexed California as their recruiting backyard while using Nike’s brand cachet (and cash) to broaden their reach nationally.

Oregon has played in two championship games in its history, the BCS in 2010 and the first CFP in ’14. It has come close a few other times, often finding a banana peel to slip on in November. Last year’s team was the undefeated No. 1 playoff seed, only to be routed by Ohio State in the Rose Bowl quarterfinals.

Texas A&M (13)

Last title: 1939. In terms of natties, this is the all-time underachiever program in college football—sitting in rich recruiting territory, with a vast and loyal fan base capable of putting more than 100,000 fans in the stands at home games, and enough money to pay a coach who isn’t winning enough $76 million to go away.

The mystifying thing about the Aggies is not just that they haven’t won a national title in 86 years; it’s that they’ve rarely come close. Texas A&M finished fourth in the AP poll in the pandemic season of 2020 and was a mildly controversial exclusion from the playoff—but the program has never played in the SEC championship game (fellow 2012 arrival Missouri has done so twice). A&M won the Big 12 only once (in 1998), though it did win the Southwest Conference three times in the early 1990s and three times in the ’80s. The 1992 team was 12–0 before being squashed by Notre Dame in the Cotton Bowl, 28–3. 

Prior to that, you have to go back to the 1956 team, which went 9–0–1 under a rising coach named Bear Bryant. Those Aggies finished No. 5 in the AP rankings.

Could this year’s team have what it takes? The current Aggies are 6–0 and ranked fourth in the nation. But four of the final six games are on the road, and three are against ranked opponents. Tough sledding from here.

Penn State

Last title: 1986. Since the Nittany Lions upset Miami in the Fiesta Bowl to win it all in ’86, 19 other programs have been crowned champions—a group that includes Colorado, Georgia Tech, Washington and Tennessee. They were probably screwed out of a share of a title in ’94, and they’ve won a ton of games over the decades. But they’ve avoided winning it all, and so far this year they’ve avoided winning any games that matter.

Still, this is a program that should attract an elite candidate pool to replace James Franklin. 

Notre Dame (14)

Last title: 1988. Fighting Irish fans will argue that the 1993 team was robbed by the pollsters, and they have a point. Notre Dame beat Florida State, then was upset by Boston College and supplanted at No. 1 by the Seminoles. Florida State won the title despite a head-to-head loss to the No. 2 team.

As the sport changed over the previous 35 years, the Fighting Irish didn’t always keep up. From the admissions office to facilities to coaching hires, there were reasons why Notre Dame failed to return to elite status. That has gradually changed, and the Irish seem to lack nothing now in terms of championship buy-in. That showed in the run to the championship game last year.

Now, the second piece of the championship equation: How many coaches can win a national title now? Or, say, within the next five years? 

There are only three active coaches who have won it all—Kirby Smart twice at Georgia, Dabo Swinney twice at Clemson, and Ryan Day once at Ohio State. (Two of those three are in the title hunt again this season.) The list of those who can join them soon seems rather short.

Curt Cignetti

Yeah, he can do it. The Indiana coach with the 17–2 record there—and a 136–37 record as a college head coach—should get the first call from Penn State. And Florida, when that job comes open. (Cignetti has SEC experience as an assistant to Nick Saban at Alabama from 2007 to ’10.) He’s 64 years old, but that shouldn’t cause concern in the current rapid-rebuild era.

For Cignetti, weighing his future could come down to deciding whether it’s truly easier to win a title at historic powers like Penn State or Florida than it is at Indiana. If the hierarchy has flattened out and the financial resources are relatively equal, does he really need to leave? The question might be whether an Indiana fan base that traditionally skews to basketball would continue to pump cash into football for as long as Cignetti wanted to keep coaching. But on the positive side, a 6–6 season would be more easily tolerated by the Hoosier faithful than the folks in State College, Pa., or Gainesville, Fla.

Kalen DeBoer (15)

The Alabama coach might end up with the best team in the SEC this season, despite widespread condemnation after going 9–4 last year and opening 2025 with a loss to Florida State. The Crimson Tide have won three straight against ranked opponents and will have to keep that going this week against No. 11 Tennessee.

But even if he doesn’t win it all this year, he can in the future. DeBoer played for the national title two years ago while at Washington, and he won NAIA national titles earlier in his head-coaching career. He has the chops to win championships, with or without the Black Hoodie of Death.

Dan Lanning (16)

Just 39 years old, the Oregon coach has a 40–7 record as a head coach and could be on his way to a second straight playoff appearance. He’s had a different starting quarterback each of the last three seasons and two different offensive coordinators in that span, but the winning continues.

There’s a long way to go, but Lanning might be one-and-done in terms of career employers at the college level. He’s got a great thing at Oregon and knows it, and getting him to leave might prove futile. Some believe he could have Dan Campbell–type effectiveness at the NFL level, though.

Marcus Freeman (17)

Jack Swarbrick’s risky swing on a replacement for Brian Kelly at Notre Dame was a home run. Freeman has a 37–12 record and a CFP championship game appearance on his résumé at age 39. Two losses to current top-five teams by a total of four points have put the Irish on the playoff bubble this season, but they might get into the bracket yet—and if so, nobody will want to play them.

Seemingly the only places Freeman would consider leaving for are his alma mater (Ohio State) and the NFL—and some people think the latter would be more likely than the former. For now, Notre Dame has the person who can take it back to the top.

The next tier of potential championship coaches: 

Mario Cristobal (18)

Now in his fourth season at Miami, Cristobal’s teams have gotten better every year. The current Hurricanes are 5–0 and No. 1 in the Dash playoff bracket, with a talented blend of transfers (like quarterback Carson Beck) and homegrown recruits (defensive lineman Rueben Bain Jr., offensive lineman Francis Mauigoa, receiver Malachi Toney, etc.).

Cristobal’s remaining hurdle to prove his championship mettle: avoiding in-game coaching gaffes and letdowns against inferior opponents. Those have scuttled a couple of potential playoff teams, at Miami and before that at Oregon.

Steve Sarkisian (19)

This season has not gone as planned for Texas, which started the year No. 1 but has lost twice. However, a restorative victory over Oklahoma on Saturday could change things. An accomplished strategist and recruiter, Sark has put his last two Longhorns teams in the playoffs. But hasn’t yet won a game there, and anything less than an SEC championship might leave him out of the field this season.

Mike Elko (20)

He’s 30–14 in four seasons as a head coach, elevating Duke the first two years and getting Texas A&M closer to its ceiling the last two. Elko is a tough-minded practitioner of physical football, but don’t underestimate his intellect. He’s got a degree from Penn and a keen understanding of program building.

On the to-do list: finishing a season. Elko’s teams have tended to overachieve early and fade late. He started 4–1 at Duke in 2022 and finished 9–4; started 5–1 there in ’23 and finished 7–5; started 7–1 last year at A&M and finished 8–5. This year’s team is 6–0, but as noted above the back half of the schedule is challenging.

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