England will go into Sunday’s Euro 2025 final against Spain as clear underdogs.
It’s less about the fact the Spanish defeated them in the World Cup final two years ago, and much more about the quality of both sides’ play throughout this tournament. England have won only two of their five games in the 90 minutes, and spent the majority of their two knockout-phase matches so far against Sweden and Italy trailing on the scoreboard. Spain, on the other hand, have won all five of their fixtures, often with scintillating passing football.
The one positive, from England’s perspective, is getting a day more rest than Spain after the semi-finals. At the end of an intense tournament, with matches played in serious heat and only three days’ break between group games — and with both semis going to extra time — freshness could be crucial on Sunday evening.
Indeed, the pattern from the past 13 men’s and women’s World Cup and European Championship finals is quite striking, something The Guardian’s Tom Garry spoke about before the tournament. In 12 of those matches, the side who played their semi-final a day earlier won the final. In the other game, both semis were on the same day.
Men’s European Championship 2012
Spain had the extra day between semi and final (three to two) and defeated Italy comprehensively 4-0 in the latter, two of the goals coming with the Italians down to 10 men for the last half-hour due to injury, having used all their substitutions.
Women’s European Championship 2013
Germany had an additional day (again, three to two) before facing Norway, who had also been forced to play extra time and go through a penalty shootout in their semi-final. Germany won, 1-0.
Men’s World Cup 2014
Germany not only had an extra day of rest compared with Argentina (four to three), they had also only played at full intensity for half an hour of their semi-final, finding themselves 5-0 up against Brazil at that point before eventually winning 7-1. Argentina had gone 120 minutes before seeing off the Netherlands on penalties. Germany won the final, with its only goal coming late in extra time.
Women’s World Cup 2015
The United States had four days of rest compared to holders Japan’s three, and were four goals up within 16 minutes in the final, eventually winning 5-2.
Men’s European Championship 2016
France had home advantage in Paris — but Portugal had three days off compared to their two, and won after extra time.
Women’s European Championship 2017
The exception that proves the rule. Hosts the Netherlands defeated Denmark 4-2, having won the second semi… but the final-four ties in this tournament were on the same day. Given the Danes and Austria went all the way to penalties in the first of them, before the Dutch beat England in 90 minutes, there was only a two-hour difference between when the games ended.
The Netherlands won Euro 2017 under the guidance of manager Sarina Wiegman, now in charge of England (Maja Hitij/Getty Images)
Men’s World Cup 2018
France had four days off compared to Croatia’s three, and scored four goals compared to Croatia’s two.
Women’s World Cup 2019
Two second-half goals handed the United States victory over the Netherlands. They had four days off compared to three for the Dutch.
Men’s European Championship 2020 (played in 2021 due to the pandemic)
Having recognised the problem, UEFA changed the scheduling of the semis ahead of this tournament, meaning the finalists had gaps of four and three days to the big game, compared to the old system of three and two. But for the second men’s Euros running, the side playing in their own backyard lost in the final, with Italy (four days) defeating England (three days) on penalties. Clearly, home advantage is not as important as an extra 24 hours with your feet up.
Women’s European Championship 2021 (played in 2022 due to the pandemic)
A year later, England had home advantage in the final again, but this time also got an extra day to prepare. Sure enough, they beat Germany 2-1 after extra time.
Men’s World Cup 2022
Argentina had four days off compared to France’s three. Not only was this World Cup in Qatar played at the ‘wrong’ time of the year to avoid the summer heat, it was also condensed into a shorter-than-usual timeframe, so maybe rest ahead of the final was particularly vital. It took penalties for Argentina to eventually prevail, although they had dominated the majority of the game against an incredibly sluggish France, who suddenly burst into life in the last 10 minutes.
Women’s World Cup 2023
The same final match-up as we will see on Sunday. Spain beat England 1-0, having had an extra day of rest — four to three — although it is worth pointing out the Spanish had been forced to make the four-hour plane journey over from New Zealand after their semi-final, whereas England played their semi in Sydney then stayed there for the final.
Men’s European Championship 2024
Spain versus England is becoming quite familiar in finals. Spain won this one, too — also 1-0 — having had four days off to the three for Gareth Southgate’s men.
The pattern is very clear. It goes back further still, to the 2011 Women’s World Cup final, and Japan defeating the United States on penalties having played in the second semi-final — although, as in the Women’s Euros six years later, that tournament’s semis were on the same day.
You have to go back to the men’s World Cup decider in 2010, 15 finals ago, to find a side (Spain) triumphing having played their semi-final the day after their opponents (the Netherlands).
The pattern is not as strong as you go back deeper into history than that — perhaps because the level of physical intensity wasn’t as demanding, and recovery days were less important. There are also more tournaments when the semi-finals are played on the same day — the 1996 men’s Euros, for example.
Playing both semis on the same day would largely solve this problem, of course. But that seems unlikely for practical reasons; the games would have to be staggered so television viewers can watch both, and given the chance of extra time and penalties, this would result in some unusual kick-off times that broadcasters would be unhappy about.
A less dramatic solution would be bringing the tournaments forward (again) and creating another day between the semi-finals and final. Yes, there would still be one side of the two with an extra day’s rest, of course, but if the teams had five and four days respectively between their last two matches, rather than four and three, the effect would surely be less pronounced.
For this weekend’s final, England will need all the help they can get in their attempts to beat Spain.
Tactically and technically, the current world champions have looked light years ahead of the reigning European champions throughout this tournament. England’s trump card is their ability to enforce late spells of pressure, having introduced substitutes, and that might be particularly effective against tired players whose recovery period has been shorter than theirs.
(Top photo: Alex Pantling – FIFA via Getty Images)
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