PHOENIX — The race for the final National League wild card, brought to you by the New York Mets, appears headed to its logical conclusion.
Not that the Mets can necessarily be trusted. Or that they are particularly deserving after their three-month collapse left them on an 84-win pace. However, after losing eight straight, they’ve won their past two games, including an 8-3 victory over the San Diego Padres on Tuesday night.
Two of the three teams “chasing” the Mets, the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants, were sellers at the trade deadline. The Cincinnati Reds were a buyer, but their 8-16 record since Aug. 19 is no one’s idea of a march to October. The Mets’ lead is 1.5 games over the Diamondbacks, three games over the Reds and Giants.
Is this anyone’s idea of a race? Depends on your perspective, and perhaps your rooting interests. And if you’re not enamored with so many pretenders in the mix, you might be even more put off if Major League Baseball pushes to increase the postseason from 12 to 16 teams if it expands to 32 clubs — an idea that could make up for the revenue lost if the league pursues another somewhat radical concept, reducing the regular-season schedule from 162 games.
Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. As The Athletic’s Jayson Stark wrote, none of those possibilities is close to coming to fruition. The first three years of the 12-team postseason, while at times jarring, were mostly a success. However, if a .500ish team makes it, not out of the question in this year’s NL, it won’t be a ringing endorsement of the system.
To this point, no team has qualified with fewer than 84 wins, a low but presentable total achieved by both the 2023 Diamondbacks and Miami Marlins. Two No. 6 seeds, the 2022 Philadelphia Phillies and ‘23 Diamondbacks, made it to the World Series, the baseball equivalent of Cinderellas in the NCAA basketball tournaments.
Fans who consider themselves purists likely recoiled at those developments. But with three wild cards in play in each league, more teams are relevant in September. If the previous system were still in place, the Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres would be the top NL wild cards. The Mets would be four games out with 11 to play. And the Diamondbacks, Giants and Reds would be pretty much cooked.
Those three clubs all have their charms, particularly the Diamondbacks, who are 26-16 since Aug. 1. The DBacks lost staff ace Corbin Burnes, top relievers A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez and left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to season-ending injuries. They traded right-hander Merrill Kelly, third baseman Eugenio Suárez, first baseman Josh Naylor, outfielder Randal Grichuk and injured reliever Shelby Miller. And yet, they’re mounting the same type of charge they did in 2023.
Are they a playoff team?
“We are,” said Geraldo Perdomo, the Diamondbacks’ irrepressible shortstop. “We’ve always been.”
Still, even after the Diamondbacks’ comeback from a 4-0 first-inning deficit Tuesday night to beat the Giants, 6-5, the three teams closest to the Mets are 77-75, 75-76 and 75-76. None is truly worthy of a postseason berth. And the Mets’ embarrassingly poor play the past three months — they are 33-49 since their 45-24 start, a worse record over that span than the Pittsburgh Pirates, Chicago White Sox and all but three other clubs — is the only reason the three pursuers are even getting a sniff.
Are the Giants a playoff team?
“Based on all the other teams that are in the mix, absolutely we are,” manager Bob Melvin said. “We’ve had stretches where we can play with anybody. The issues we’ve had this year have been the ups and downs, and they’ve been pretty severe.”
The Giants were 61-68 on Aug. 22, only a half-game ahead of the Marlins and 7 1/2 games back in their quest for the third wild card, with three teams in front of them. They then went on one of their hot streaks, winning 11 of 12 to move into quasi-contention. Since then, they’ve dropped seven of 10.
President of baseball operations Buster Posey wants to build around pitching and defense, but the Giants are lacking in both areas. The inclusion of Kyle Harrison in the Rafael Devers trade, stalled development of Hayden Birdsong and injuries to Landen Roupp and Carson Whisenhunt left the team with only three quality starters. The Giants traded two of their top relievers, Tyler Rogers and Camilo Doval. Erik Miller, after emerging as one of the top left-handed specialists last season, has been out since July 2 with a sprained left elbow. All-Star Randy Rodriguez, out since Aug. 22, is headed for Tommy John surgery.
On Tuesday, The Athletic’s Grant Brisbee wrote of the Giants’ depleted relief corps, “This is not a postseason bullpen.” The defense, 27th in Outs Above Average, is also unsightly. The only way for the Giants to win these days is to mash. And they’re not doing that enough.
The same can be said of the Reds, who have been shut out 13 times this season, including twice in the past five games. The Cincinnati rotation is strong enough for the team to be an actual threat if it reaches the postseason. However, since the All-Star break, the Reds rank in the bottom third in runs per game.
Which brings us back to the Diamondbacks, who are trying to revive their spirit of 2023.
Remember? The Diamondbacks acquired closer Paul Sewald and outfielder Tommy Pham at the deadline, but were still 57-59 on Aug. 11. They finished the season 27-19, then upset the Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies — after being down three games to two in Philly — to reach the World Series.
“What I learned in ‘23 is that it’s not about who’s got the biggest names on the roster. It’s about getting hot at the right time,” Diamondbacks right-hander Zac Gallen said. “Are you all pulling in the right direction? And when a big moment is there, do you have enough guys willing to step up and produce?
“I think you’ve seen that from our team the last 2-3 weeks. If we need big outs in a certain spot, we’re calling on (Taylor) Rashi, who just got here (on Aug. 28) and, in his debut, got a three-inning save. To the likes of Perdomo, who’s been doing it all year. That’s what it takes. And when you get to October, anything can happen.”
Perdomo, second baseman Ketel Marte and right fielder Corbin Carroll, the top three hitters in the Diamondbacks’ order, are among the top players in the game. And Perdomo, manager Torey Lovullo said, has taken over the team in recent weeks, batting .331 with a 1.009 OPS since Aug. 2 and entering Tuesday ranked first among NL position players in bWAR and third in fWAR.
Both of the Diamondbacks’ replacements for Naylor at first base, Pavin Smith and Tyler Locklear, are on the IL, leaving the position to two players who normally play elsewhere in the infield, Tim Tawa and Ildemaro Vargas. However, the DBacks are playing a fast, athletic, Brewers-esque style. And their veterans are drawing from the experience of ‘23.
“There was a nervousness coming to the ballpark. Can we? Are we able to? And we did. We made it to the World Series,” Lovullo said. “So the guys are all saying, ‘We’ve been there before, let’s not panic. Let’s be ourselves, have fun and win baseball games.’ I don’t think you can do that unless you’ve seen that before and understand what that road map looks like.”
If not for the Mets, the road would be full of blockades, leaving the Diamondbacks, Giants and Reds unable to advance. But the expanded postseason is baseball’s answer to an open highway. Teams are free to use the passing lane, and ride as long as they can.
(Top photo of DBacks’ Jake McCarthy: Norm C. Hall/Getty Images)
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