In March 2024, the New England Patriots were faced with a decision about one of defensive cornerstones. Kyle Dugger, who was coming off yet another solid season as a starting safety, was about to enter unrestricted free agency for the first time in his career and a realistic candidate to draw quite a bit of interest should he make it to the open market.
The Patriots decided that they would not let this happen. Before letting the rookie deal he had signed in 2020 expire, they deployed the franchise tag to keep him under team control for the 2024 season. One month later, the two sides reached an agreement on a four-year, $58 million contract.
The message sent by the organization at the time was clear. With a new pact in hand, Dugger would continue being a key defender for New England for the foreseeable future.
Fifteen months later, that outlook has drastically changed.
While there is still a chance that Dugger will play out the majority if not all of his current deal and resume the high-volume role he has held in the past, the last few practices have put his standing into serious doubt. The first clearly-visible cracks in the armor appeared last Monday, when he was removed from the lineup at multiple points in favor of Craig Woodson: the fourth-round rookie was part of a three-safety nickel look also featuring top-level safeties Jabrill Peppers and Jaylinn Hawkins.
That change of personnel usage was a sign of things to come. Dugger was used in a similar fashion two days later, during the Patriots’ joint practice with the Washington Commanders. He did eventually start the two teams’ preseason contest last Friday, and like other key defenders was pulled early in the second period, but his apparent fall from grace continued heading into the fourth week of camp.
On Sunday, the change was not just package-specific. Whereas Woodson started a majority of practice periods alongside Peppers and Hawkins, Dugger ran with the second-stringers for much of the day.
Based on the last few days, it therefore looks like the Patriots are in the process of phasing out the 66-game starter in favor of a Day 3 rookie. The natural question then becomes, what’s next?
There is plenty of time between now and the start of the regular season for roles to be reversed, or the depth chart to get shaken up again. There are several examples just on the current Patriots roster of players riding the training camp rollercoaster, going up and down the depth chart. Dugger, however, is different.
Not only is the 2020 second-round draft pick, the longest-tenured player remaining on the team, he also is carrying a $15.3 million salary cap hit that tops the New England defense. Under normal circumstances, you would expect a player like that — particularly given that he is only in the second season of the four-year pact signed a year ago — to not cede any ground when it comes to a starting role.
And yet, head coach Mike Vrabel and defensive coordinator Terrell Williams seem adamant that Woodson is the better option at this point in time. Or at least the option deserving of more starter-level practice reps.
As a consequence, the ice is getting thinner under Dugger’s feet. His contract structure that includes $23.25 million in remaining guarantees over the next three seasons, seemingly puts him in the clear for now. However, the finances are only one piece of the puzzle — and something New England might be able to resolve considering its current salary cap space of almost $59 million.
The bigger problem might be one that also contributed to the departures of longtime Patriots David Andrews, Ja’Whaun Bentley and Joe Cardona earlier this offseason. The team is in the middle of a culture shift away from the dynasty era. Dugger was never a part of it, but he came up in its aftermath and remains part of the ever decreasing “old guard” in New England.
As a result of that, his days might be numbered regardless. However, as opposed to fellow multi-year veterans like Jabrill Peppers or Christian Barmore, he also does no longer appear to have a set role in the no-look defense.
Add it all up and you get a situation that currently looks untenable.
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