It’s time to fire up the panic meter. For 10 NFL fan bases, their teams are now 0-2, and their odds of making the playoffs have significantly diminished since the start of the season. So, is it time to panic?
For some of these teams — we’re looking at you Browns, Saints and Panthers — while a slow start wasn’t welcomed, it was certainly expected, so there’s probably not much reason for fans to panic. But for supporters of the Chiefs and Texans, well, it’s fair to say your teams are in a spot of trouble.
If you’ve been a football fan long enough, you’ve surely heard a statistic or two about a 0-2 start being a death sentence to playoff hopes. While historically, that tends to be true — since 1990, just 12.2% of teams have made the playoffs after dropping their first two games — you don’t have to look too far back to know some teams defy the odds. Just last year, the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Rams went 0-2 out of the gates, and they both ended up winning their divisions.
So, can the Chiefs and Texans still bounce back this year? Of course! How likely is it? That’s what my NFL Projection Model is going to tell us. We’re going to take a closer look at five winless teams and give you some insight into whether their fans should hold out hope for the playoffs or if they should turn their attention to the 2026 NFL Draft.
Kansas City Chiefs
As you can see, the model still believes in the back-to-back-to-back AFC champions. Their 60.1% playoff odds rank sixth in the conference, which puts them squarely in the wild-card hunt.
However, while it’s easy to hop on the Patrick Mahomes bandwagon and believe he’ll turn things around, there is some cause for concern for the kings of the AFC.
Odds to win AFC West at @BetMGM
Chargers +110
Chiefs +250
Broncos +300
Raiders +1400This is the first week the @Chiefs have not been favored to win the division since Week 10 2021. 👀
— John Ewing (@johnewing) September 16, 2025
First, they’re extraordinarily thin (again) at wide receiver. Rashee Rice is in the middle of serving a suspension that won’t see him return until after Week 6, while Xavier Worthy has been out since early in their Week 1 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers with a shoulder injury. There is no telling when Worthy will return and how he’ll hold up once he’s back. And with their top receivers out, aging star Travis Kelce just hasn’t quite been able to carry the load like he did in this offense’s glory days. Frankly, it’s unfair to ask him, at almost 36 years old, to be more than a complementary piece to this offense, but that’s the state of the Chiefs’ pass-catching group right now.
Where we’re seeing the lack of talent around Mahomes materialize is in his scramble rate. Mahomes is scrambling on more than 15% of his dropbacks. His career high before this season was 7.6% (2023), and his career mark is just 6.2%. That’s quite a jump, albeit in only two games, and it’s indicative of a poor supporting cast, as the Chiefs’ passing offense is suffering from a combination of receivers not getting open and an average offensive line, which has a 36.9% pressure rate allowed, 16th in the NFL.
Certainly, it’s fair to believe Mahomes and company will figure out ways to overcome their issues, but the offense isn’t the Chiefs’ only problem. Kansas City’s pass rush has been mediocre, and perhaps the biggest issue facing the Chiefs going forward is their formidable remaining schedule.
My model projects the Chiefs’ schedule as the sixth-hardest the rest of the way, including home games against Baltimore and Detroit, without Rice, as well as a trip to Buffalo later in the season. Mahomes is magical, and there are maybe only two other quarterbacks in the game I’d trust as much to deliver with a lack of weapons, but make no mistake: This 0-2 hole isn’t going to be easy to climb out of.
Houston Texans
Their 0-2 start is certainly not as surprising as the Chiefs’, but the Texans are the two-time reigning AFC South champions, so this wasn’t exactly expected, either. Coming into the season, I wanted to see the revamped Texans offensive line improve with a change at offensive coordinator. And after two games, well, I don’t think the unit got any better. Quarterback C.J. Stroud is being pressured on more than 40% of his dropbacks, which is a 2% increase from last season. You can live with some pressure if your quarterback is elite with his legs, but that’s not Stroud’s game.
And Houston’s problems don’t end there. The Texans can’t run the ball, either. The Texans are the second-worst team in rushing success rate at 29%, besting only the Chicago Bears. You might think defenses are stacking the box because they know Houston can’t pass-protect. Nope. The Texans have faced the seventh-fewest eight-man boxes in the league and still can’t find success running the ball.
The season certainly isn’t over for the Texans, as their playoff odds sit at 25%, but I think panic is justified here because no matter how good your defense is, if you can’t pass-protect or generate yards on the ground, you’re not going to win many games.
Chicago Bears
I wasn’t very high on the Bears coming into the season, but after their 0-2 start, their playoff odds sit at just 5%. It was probably too much to ask, but coach Ben Johnson’s success in Detroit hasn’t translated to Chicago just yet. Quarterback Caleb Williams still needs to show more, and while there have been some positive signs, it might take time. Unfortunately, that’s time the 2025 Bears don’t have, because with injuries piling up on defense, they need the offense to pick it up if they hope to reach the postseason.
Miami Dolphins
My model still had some faith in the Dolphins despite my personal disbelief in the talent on the roster. And while the offense looked better against the New England Patriots last week, I can’t get over the lack of talent on the offensive line and the back seven on defense to give this team a shot with Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback. If I were in charge of the Dolphins, I’d be hitting the reset button, even with my model giving them an 8% chance at the playoffs.
Carolina Panthers
I was a believer in the 2024 second half for Bryce Young. I was and am still a huge believer in first-round wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan. Through two weeks, I think the latter was right but not so much on the former. And now add multiple injuries along the offensive line, and I think things are bleak for the 2025 Panthers. My model’s projection for them barely edged into double-digits before the season started, and after their 0-2 start, they sit under 1%.
(Photo of Patrick Mahomes: Scott Winters / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
