Following their third consecutive win — a 28-7 defeat of the Washington Commanders — the Kansas City Chiefs are taking their 5-3 record back on the road to face the Buffalo Bills in a critical AFC West showdown.
Here’s what I’ll be wondering as the Week 9 matchup gets underway.
1. How well can Kansas City run the ball against Buffalo?
The Bills’ biggest weakness is stopping the run. They rank 28th in defensive expected points added against the run and 24th in success rate. They’re also 31st in yards per carry at 5.5 yards allowed — and week after week, they’ve been giving up explosive runs.
Many of their issues stem from undersized personnel at all three levels of their defense.
Buffalo’s defensive tackles are penetrators, rather than big men who can hold gaps. When healthy, DaQuan Jones (who is out for Sunday’s game) and Ed Oliver prefer getting into the backfield to make tackles for loss — but when they fail, they leave a vacant space. Even the Bills’ massive rookie Deone Walker prefers getting upfield to holding the point. When offensive blockers get their hands on these defenders, they can be moved.
At the second level, linebackers Terrell Bernard, Dorian Williams, Matt Milano and Shaq Thompson (also out in Week 9) are coverage players who struggle to navigate through traffic.
Behind them, Buffalo’s safeties are also small players with poor tackling ability. Running backs can run through them — and their pursuit angles are often terrible.
So it’s easy to see why it’s easy to break big runs against the Bills.
Unfortunately for Kansas City, that isn’t how its running game is constructed. While it is efficient, it is not explosive. Even worse, Isiah Pacheco —who is theoretically the team’s most explosive running back — is also out. So backup Kareem Hunt will be the main rusher. He’s good for three or four yards on any short-yardage play, but rarely gets beyond that.
So who will get the upper hand? The Chiefs’ running game should be efficient, but will it produce explosive plays? Even if Hunt finds space, he probably won’t get beyond 15 or 20 yards — but that’s still a strong run. If Kansas City can get two or three of those against Buffalo, it could go a long way.
2. How will the Chiefs’ defensive tackles hold up?
On the other side of the ball, Kansas City’s linebackers are much better against the run than the Bills’ linebackers — but the Chiefs also have small defensive tackles who can be moved. Derrick Nnadi isn’t a very stout nose tackle, while Jerry Tillery has never been known for his run defense.
In recent years, this has been an issue for Kansas City against Buffalo, which has an offensive line full of big maulers. The Bills are comfortable running double teams at any defensive tackle and getting real movement — and in previous matchups, that’s one way they’ve hurt the Chiefs.
A great rushing offense hasn’t tested the Kansas City defense since its Week 6 game against the Detroit Lions — and to its credit, it did a good job handling the run in that contest. But Detroit doesn’t have a quarterback like Josh Allen, who can add another dimension to the running game. Since he can plow through (or even hurdle) defenders, he is difficult to corral. The Chiefs will need as many bodies as possible to contain him — and running back James Cook, too.
But if the defensive tackles are being shoved off the ball, it’s harder for second-level players to make tackles and work through traffic. Can they hold their ground? Will the recent return of defensive tackle Mike Pennel make a difference?
If not… that leads us to the final question.
3. Can the Chiefs’ safeties make crucial tackles in space?
If Kansas City’s defensive tackles struggle to handle their blocks up front, Buffalo will be able to spring 8-to-10-yard gains fairly consistently — something it has done for years. While the Chiefs’ linebackers can do a lot against the run, they often play more slowly against the Bills because Buffalo’s offense stresses them horizontally. With Cook’s runs, Allen’s designed rushes and run-pass options or screens to defend, a lot is happening on every snap. That slows the linebackers — and when defensive tackles can’t eat blocks, openings appear.
That leaves the safeties as the last line of defense. This will be their biggest test of the season. Bryan Cook, Chamarri Conner and Jaden Hicks have all been serviceable, but none tackle as well as the departed Justin Reid did. When Cook and Allen reach the secondary, the safeties must make plays. The Bills’ 8-to-10-yard gains are bad enough, but missed tackles can turn those into 25-to-30-yard runs. It will be a tough assignment for Kansas City’s safeties — but getting it done will be an essential part of beating Buffalo.
If the Chiefs can limit these long runs, their occasional stuff that puts the Bills behind the chains will be a bigger factor. After that, we have to hope defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo can dial up something to get a stop.
If Kansas City can get to that point two or three times, it should be in good shape to win.
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