BOSTON – A new-look Boston Celtics team will take the TD Garden parquet on Wednesday night. And, unlike previous years, the game won’t be on national television, because few expect the Celtics to be one of the league’s top teams. Tickets to get into TD Garden are cheap — $75 a pop — down from hundreds of dollars just a few years back.
But, what if they’re actually pretty darn good?
The reasons to doubt are plentiful.
Jayson Tatum, who has been the Celtics’ leading scorer, rebounder, and playmaker for most of his career, won’t lace up. Neither will four key rotation players who now don new jerseys: Kristaps Porzingis (Atlanta Hawks), Al Horford (Golden State Warriors), Jrue Holiday (Portland Trail Blazers), and Luke Kornet (San Antonio Spurs).
The losses and their potential on-court ramifications have been well-chronicled. And for good reason – there’s no doubt that the Celtics gave up an enormous amount of talent this offseason.
But the big question becomes, what did they gain? And could the schematic shifts and young blood be enough to keep this group in the playoff mix?
Through the preseason, it has become abundantly clear that the Celtics will implement a much different playstyle on both ends of the floor, an offense that is faster-paced, and a defense that is far more physical and aggressive.
With that will come an expanded rotation – with 10 to 11 players potentially contributing a night – which has not been the norm in Joe Mazzulla’s three-year coaching tenure.
Some of that will be out of necessity; a faster pace spells tired legs.
“For us to maintain a pace like that, we’re gonna have to sub quite a lot,” said Xavier Tilman.
But not having the same 8 or 9 players sub in for the same shifts each night — as has been customary — could also be advantageous.
“The ability to not have a rotation is a strength, because you can go to fresh guys, you can go to a bunch of different guys, and you can do a bunch of different things,” Mazzulla said. “So we’re in the obviously early stages of that, but I’m not sure that we will have [a rotation]. And I think that can actually be a good thing for us throughout our season.”
That means that offseason additions like Chris Boucher, Josh Minott, and rookie Hugo Gonzalez — among others — could find themselves playing a critical role from the jump. Players like Neemias Queta, Luka Garza, and Xavier Tillman were not in NBA rotations last season. Now, they could play critical minutes on a team looking to defy expectations.
The Celtics will aim to be a top defense as well as a top offense, but achieving both means reconfiguring their play styles.
Here’s how they plan on doing it — at least to begin the season.
Mucking things up on defense
On the defensive end, the Celtics will play completely differently than what we’re used to seeing — at least they’ll attempt to.
Their new defensive approach will be a lot less conservative, explained Payton Pritchard.
They’ll be more physical, double the ball more, and attempt to force more free throws. They’ll be more willing to rack up fouls, and consequently, rack up fouls.
“The NBA, I feel like in the playoffs, is allowing a lot more physicality,” Pritchard said early at training camp. “You got to learn how to play through it and be more physical. So, we’re emphasizing it.”
For the last two years, the Celtics have practically switched everything on defense, which has made it more difficult to hide poor defenders (shoutout to Sam Hauser for holding his own despite teams’ best efforts to hunt him). They’ve also been incredibly reluctant to foul, and have routinely ranked at the bottom of the league in fouls per game. That’s unlikely to remain the case next season.
“Before we were playing more of a safe defense of switching: live with contested shots, don’t foul, don’t send people to the free throw line,” Pritchard said. “But that’s kind of changed. The NBA evolves every year, so you’ve got to change your game with it. It worked for us when we won the championship. It didn’t work for us as much last year.”
These stylistic changes were largely born out of necessity. As it currently stands, the Celtics don’t have many proven rim protectors. And, they no longer have several of their most versatile defensive players from last year’s roster, like Holiday, Horford, and Tatum (at least not to begin the season).
So, they will have to put two on the ball more often, force more turnovers, and attempt to cause havoc. At times, that will mean giving up open threes.
But Mazzulla already likes what he’s seen, and he thinks that, to begin the year, the defense is ahead of the offense.
“This is who we have to be [in order] to be effective,” said the fourth-year Celtics head coach.
In the preseason, the Celtics finished with the second-best defensive rating in the league. That’s not a perfectly representative stat, considering the lineups played and the reality of a four-game sample. Still, it’s indicative of an increased emphasis on that end, despite personnel challenges.
Despite the losses, the Celtics have offensive strengths, too
On offense, the new-look squad still has plenty of talent and four elite shooters that will help them space the floor. Last year, the Celtics led the league in three-point attempts (48.2) and makes (17.8). And while they’re down key shooters, expect the three-point volume to remain high; in the preseason, the Celtics once again led the NBA in three-point attempts (47).
Perhaps most important to achieving that high volume Derrick White, who made 39.3% of his threes last year en route to setting a franchise record for most threes made in a season. Alongside him, Payton Pritchard made 40.7% of his 7.8 three-point attempts per game on his way to a Sixth Man of the Year campaign. And, Sam Hauser — who has famously yet to shoot below 40% from three in high school or college — made 41.6% of his 5.6 attempts last season.
All three of those players should see their shot attempts rise with Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday, Al Horford, and Kristaps Porzingis gone.
And, Anfernee Simons made 36.3% of his 8.5 three-point attempts per game last season on the Portland Trail Blazers (though it was his worst shooting season in five years). Playing alongside more talent than he had last season, Simons should get cleaner looks in Boston.
No Jayson Tatum is going to be a major offensive adjustment; Tatum has been the Celtics’ leading scorer and playmaker for years. But we’ll likely see guards initiate more offensive action, more cutting, and a faster pace (the Celtics had the NBA’s second-slowest pace last season).
Mazzulla has explained that the Celtics’ offense is a work-in-progress and that what we see on Opening Night will be far from the final product. But, though they’re undoubtedly down key cogs, the shooting talent remains.
Importantly, so does Jaylen Brown, who has long been one of the league’s most reliable scorers. Brown played through a partially torn meniscus last season and, in turn, had one of the least efficient seasons of his career. But, he’s been a 20+ point per game scorer for six years now, and is poised to be the top offensive option on the Celtics for the first time in his career. Brown is questionable for the season’s opener against the Philadelphia 76ers with a tweaked hamstring, but by all accounts is fully recovered from his offseason knee surgery.
And, he’s urging the Celtics to scrutizine the details, study film, and raise their standard toward perfection.
“I want us to be the smartest team out there, the more studious team out there,” Brown said at training camp.
How will that all stack up against the East’s other potential playoff teams?
That, of course, is the million-dollar question, as all NBA players have talented players.
But the Celtics are far from the only team down key pieces. The Cleveland Cavaliers will be without Darius Garland (toe injury) and Max Strus (foot) to begin the year. The Miami Heat won’t have Tyler Herro (ankle). The oft-injured Philadelphia 76ers are missing both Paul George (knee) and Jared McCain (thumb) to begin the year. The Indiana Pacers, of course, are set to be without Tyrese Haliburton for the season as he recovers from a torn Achilles tendon. The New York Knicks are getting things started without Josh Hart (lower back) and Mitchell Robinson.
The list goes on and on, and the season hasn’t even started.
The reality is that the Celtics could deal with unexpected injuries, too. But, to begin the year, there’s a clear vision, and a clean bill of health.
The result could be a Celtics team that far exceeds initial expectations surrounding a ‘gap year.’
That’s how the players feel, at least.
“We can be as good as want to be,” said Xavier Tillman. “We have a really talented group — from 1 to 15.”
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