Following consecutive stellar offensive performances in prime time against the Jaguars and Lions, the Chiefs are back at the top of the oddsboard as Super Bowl favorites. It’s a fun exercise right now to rank the top five NFL teams because there’s been so much parity at the top. Buffalo would have been in everyone’s top three, but then they lost back-to-back games to New England and Atlanta. (That said, they’re still in my top three.) The Packers have a conspicuous loss to Cleveland and a tie with Dallas, but they are the current NFC favorites. The Eagles are defending Super Bowl champions, but their two most important defensive players are injured and they have a negative point differential through six weeks.
Everyone is rightfully acknowledging the stellar early season play of Daniel Jones’s Colts and Baker Mayfield’s Bucs, yet both teams are underdogs on the road to the Chargers and Lions, respectively, in Week 7. The Ravens and Bills have a bye, leaving 15 games on the docket for this week.
Here are all my thoughts on the Week 7 slate, starting with the bets I’ve made already. (All lines from FanDuel as of Thursday morning.)
The Favorite Five
I’ll be highlighting my favorite five picks each week throughout the season, which will serve as a preview for my picks on The Ringer 107—a season-long contest between The Bill Simmons Podcast, The Ringer NFL Show, The Ringer Gambling Show, and The Ringer Fantasy Football Show. I’ll be partnering with Cousin Sal to make the Gambling Show’s Friday picks. Through six weeks, this column is 25-24 overall and 12-18 on the Favorite Five.
Los Angeles Rams at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3, in London)
After back-to-back weeks of some diabolical football across the pond featuring the Vikings, Browns, Jets, and Broncos, we’ve got a really intriguing matchup on Sunday. The Rams are flying over straight from Baltimore to London, and the Jaguars, who play in the U.K. every year, are plenty experienced making the trip, even if this is a new coaching staff who hasn’t done it before.
The Rams are likely to be without Puka Nacua this week; it’s hard to overstate his impact on the offense. Nacua is the most targeted player in the league (65 in six games) and he’s second only to Jaxon Smith-Njigba in yards per route run. Davante Adams is a respectable WR2 who ranks 41st in yards per route run, but Nacua is the real difference maker that elevates this offense. Given the issues the Rams are likely to face on the ground against an elite Jacksonville run defense (fourth in success rate allowed), there will be a lot of pressure on Matthew Stafford to execute on passing downs without his best receiver.
For as much as I still have questions about the true quality of the Rams secondary, the defensive front has been excellent at generating pressure and stopping the run. Their EPA numbers are skewed downward due to high-leverage tush pushes against the Eagles, but the Rams are a clearly above-average run defense in my view. And despite the general offensive improvements, Jacksonville remains just 23rd in yards per drive.
Verdict: Bet under 45 (–110)
Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals (+6.5)
I still have the Packers rated as the best team in the NFL after six weeks. With Baltimore’s fall-off and questions about the Chiefs and Bills defenses, the Packers remain the team most likely to me to finish the season top five in both offense and defense. It hasn’t always been amazing for Green Bay, as the offense sputtered in Week 3 against Cleveland. And we all watched Dak Prescott torch the Packers defense in a 40-40 tie in Week 4.
But once again, Green Bay’s superpower is the ability to generate explosive plays. The Packers are first in explosive play percentage on offense and second best in explosive play rate allowed. That’s a very simple formula to win a lot of football games. Even against a Cardinals defense designed to limit those types of plays, Green Bay scored 34 points on them at Lambeau last year.
Jacoby Brissett moved the ball easily on the Colts defense last week after stepping up in the backup role, but he’ll be under considerably more duress if he starts against a much more formidable Green Bay pass rush. The Colts secondary was playing without their three best corners following a pregame injury to Charvarius Ward, too, which certainly made life easier for Arizona.
Verdict: Bet Green Bay –6.5
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys (+1.5)
This will almost certainly be the highest total of the NFL season thus far. Washington should move the ball at will and generate explosive plays due to a leaky Cowboys defense. But the real story here is the Dallas offense. Dak Prescott and Co. have been an offensive supernova—second in EPA per drive and sixth in dropback success rate—and now CeeDee Lamb is back at practice.
The Cowboys have played two games at home, where it appears Prescott’s ability to diagnose plays pre-snap is enhanced. They scored 40 points in both games—against the Giants and Packers, respectively—in two overtime thrillers.
The Commanders defense ranks 29th in explosive play rate allowed, and this is the second consecutive season where tackling issues and an inability to cover the middle of the field have left them vulnerable. Prescott is especially good at exploiting teams who struggle to defend the middle, and right now he’s at the peak of his powers with his full complement of skill players likely available. It’s square, but I’m happy to bet on Dallas to score points.
Verdict: Bet Cowboys team total over 27.5
New York Giants at Denver Broncos (–7)
There’s a significant rest advantage for the Giants coming off a mini-bye following their TNF game, while the Broncos are traveling back home from London. That’s worth a half point to maybe a full point in my opinion. I’m still not convinced by this Giants offense with Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo, though. Yes, they scored 34 points against the defending Super Bowl champions last week. But it’s important to note that it’s going to be pretty hard to replicate the 11-for-16 third-down performance against a much better defensive front in Denver. The Giants played the Eagles essentially without Jalen Carter and Quinyon Mitchell and picked on Philadelphia’s terrible backup corners.
Does this plan work to the same effect against an aggressive Broncos defense that is top five against the run and top five at generating pressure? The Giants are going to be forced into passing downs, and I don’t think that will go well for this limited skill group on offense.
On the other side of the ball, the Giants defense ranks third in EPA per pass allowed on passes 5 yards or fewer. That will always be a good recipe for a low-scoring affair in a Broncos game.
Verdict: Bet under 40.5 (–110)
Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings (+1.5)
It was easy to make the case for the Eagles in the preseason, since they brought back 10 starters on offense and most of their difference makers on defense. But if you were to make the bear case, it would have been about the major questions surrounding defensive depth and the new offensive coordinator. And it’s been a Murphy’s Law kind of year for both of those concerns. Kevin Patullo’s offense is unimaginative and predictable. The offense is 27th in drive series conversion rate, which measures how often the offense produces another fresh set of downs or a score. The offensive line has taken a real step back, as has the running game. For some unknown reason, the Eagles also aren’t using Jalen Hurts on designed runs much at all.
The result is a very mediocre offense. But the dropoff in defense is just as surprising. The injuries to Nolan Smith Jr. and Jalen Carter have zapped any pass rush, and the Quinyon Mitchell injury leaves the Eagles with zero reliable outside corners. Plus, pass rusher Za’Darius Smith just abruptly retired. Even if Carter plays this week, which I am expecting him to, he’s not looked 100 percent healthy at any point this year. The Eagles have a ton of holes right now, and that’s why they have a negative point differential. I believed in what this defense did for a half against Tampa Bay and three quarters against Denver, but it’s getting hard to do that with the mounting absences.
The injury situation is trending considerably better for Minnesota. The Vikings should have the majority of their previously very injured offensive line back. Blake Cashman could make his return, and he’s vitally important as the green dot for this defense. The Eagles offense is easy to scout right now, and if there’s anyone who can expose that, it’s a defensive coordinator like Brian Flores.
Verdict: Bet Vikings +1.5
Thursday Night Football
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5)
The Bengals and Steelers rank in the bottom six in the NFL in yards allowed per drive. And while the Bengals offense is also second to last on offensive yards per game, it did post a league-average number in Joe Flacco’s debut on the road against an elite Green Bay defense last week. The main reason that game was closer than anticipated was that Cincinnati could keep the chains moving and shorten the number of times an explosive Green Bay offense got the ball. The Bengals weren’t able to hit many big plays against the Packers, but I suspect that will change against a much softer Pittsburgh defense.
It’s clear that given the high quality of receiver talent for Cincinnati, Flacco’s willingness to launch the ball up to the boundary on isolation routes is a wonderful recipe for the over. And for all of their flaws, the Steelers are 12th in EPA per dropback and have only played one defense as bad as the Bengals. (They scored 34 points against the Jets.)
I’ll be expecting points on Thursday Night Football.
Verdict: Bet over 43.5
The Rest of the Slate
New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears (–5.5)
Chicago has gone over its team total in each of the five games it’s played this season. The Bears are 3-2, and both of their last two wins came down to the last kick in a 25-24 victory. Did the Bears find something in the run game during the bye week that they can turn into something more sustainable long term? That was the key for Ben Johnson’s offense in Detroit, and it will be the key to his continued success in Chicago. The Bears had abysmal run numbers in the first four games of the season and then completely turned it around in Week 6.
I’d be more inclined to think it was a one-game outlier if it hadn’t come immediately out of the bye week. The Saints played New England to a relatively even game last week, and they’re the clear lean here for me, but the Bears offense might be taking a real step forward right now.
Chicago Bears EPA per Rush by Week
Verdict: Lean Saints +5.5 based on number but pass
Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns (–3)
Whatever you thought rock bottom was for Mike McDaniel and the Dolphins, being lined as a three-point underdog to Dillon Gabriel is the true floor. The Dolphins actually had their most evenly contested advanced box score of the season last week against the Chargers (yikes, Chargers) after getting outplayed in each of their first five games.
I understand why Cleveland is favored; it has a considerably better defense and should be able to run the ball well with Quinshon Judkins against a soft Miami defensive front. With that said, expecting the Browns to win by margin with an extremely limited pass offense is a no-go.
Miami is an excellent option for a teaser this week given it’s hard to expect Gabriel to get margin. Only Justin Fields and Cooper Rush have been worse than Gabriel by EPA per dropback in the past two weeks.
Verdict: Pass, use Miami +9 in teasers
New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans (+7)
I was getting ready to load up on New England in a potential blowout, revenge spot against the hapless Titans, since I’m always looking for reasons to bet against Brian Callahan. Sadly, we will not have any more opportunities to bet against Callahan as an NFL head coach this year. He’s the worst head coach against the spread over the past 20 years, with a remarkable 4-19 record.
Mike McCoy as interim head coach doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence either, but there’s a real chance that Tennessee gets up for this game at home. It’s just going to be a small wager on New England –7 for me, if anything, as the pass offense continues to impress with another stellar game from Drake Maye. The Patriots can’t run at all, yet Maye continues to deliver a successful and explosive offense.
Verdict: Lean Patriots –7
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (–12)
I thought the issues in the Chiefs’ passing game ran deeper than the absence of Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice because the quarterback wasn’t playing close to his best. Then Patrick Mahomes delivered two of his best consecutive regular-season games in more than a year, and the Chiefs are right back to being the AFC favorites, with Mahomes positioned as the MVP favorite once again.
The best way to bet this game is not by laying the points against the Raiders but by looking at the bigger picture. The current AFC leader is Indianapolis at 5-1, and the Colts’ schedule is about to get a lot tougher in the second half. The Colts also go to Arrowhead in November. The Steelers are 4-1 but highly unlikely to keep pace with the upper echelon of the AFC. Buffalo is showing major cracks defensively. You can still bet the Chiefs to be the AFC 1-seed at +600, and I think that’s the best way to approach betting Kansas City right now.
Verdict: Bet Chiefs to be the AFC 1-seed (+600)
Carolina Panthers at New York Jets (+1.5)
As much as the Jets have been a disaster week to week, they are 3-3 against the spread, so it’s not as if the market has been constantly overrating them this season. New York opened as a favorite on Sunday night, but it didn’t take long for the market to flip to Carolina. The Jets are in a bad spot on the back end of a London trip, as they now have to face an excellent Carolina rushing offense led by Rico Dowdle (imagine writing that in the preseason).
The market was undervaluing the Panthers as a home underdog each of the past two weeks, but now that everyone is hopping in on them as a road favorite, I think this price is quite accurate and reflects the real improvements Carolina has made in 2025.
Verdict: Pass
Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers (–1.5)
The Colts’ defensive back injuries and the Chargers’ offensive line issues are major vulnerabilities entering Week 7. The Colts have faced only one quarterback in the tier of Justin Herbert, and they allowed 27 points to Matthew Stafford and the Rams in Week 4. The absences of Kenny Moore II, Jaylon Jones, and Charvarius Ward mean that Herbert should have no problem consistently moving the ball through the air, especially since the Colts’ pass rush is a mediocre unit (19th in pressure rate).
The Chargers could also get multiple offensive linemen back. It’s important to monitor the statuses of tackles Joe Alt and Trey Pipkins III, as their returns would provide a major boost to both tackle spots.
No bet for me on this game until there’s a clearer picture of the Chargers’ offensive line situation.
Verdict: Pass
Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers (–2.5)
The 49ers defense hasn’t been able to generate any pressure at all since the injury to Nick Bosa in Week 3. It’s obvious in both the eye test and the declining pressure rate numbers that Bosa was carrying the front four. Without him, the defense is severely limited. Without him and Fred Warner, it’s completely compromised. The market has taken notice of this, with the line moving from 49ers –3 to 49ers –2.5 and the total jumping up a point to 46.5.
Niners Pressure Rate This Season
The entire Falcons offense is designed to get the ball to Bijan Robinson and Drake London in space, and I don’t know how much the 49ers can really stop that. Whenever the Rams and Bucs needed 15 yards against them the past two weeks, they were able to get it relatively comfortably.
On the other side of the ball, the 49ers offense is getting healthier and could have Brock Purdy and George Kittle back for this game. The Falcons defense has played up considerably through five games, but I think the over remains the best way to bet this game as the Niners offense gets healthy and the defense remains a sieve.
Verdict: Bet over 46.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (–5.5)
One of the teams tied for the best record in the NFL is a 5.5-point underdog on Monday Night Football. It’s clear that oddsmakers aren’t quite buying into the Buccaneers hype.
Both teams are dealing with significant absences, as the Lions will be without key safety Brian Branch following his suspension for a postgame crash out on JuJu Smith-Schuster after their Week 6 game. Corners D.J. Reed and Terrion Arnold didn’t play in Sunday’s loss to the Chiefs, and neither is likely to play this week against Tampa Bay. For the Bucs, it’s more a matter of who isn’t injured on their offense at this point. Emeka Egbuka joins Bucky Irving, Chris Godwin Jr., and maybe Mike Evans on the shelf. The offensive line remains far from full strength entering Week 7.
This isn’t a terrible matchup on paper for Tampa because its run defense can hold up on early downs and keep Detroit’s offense from playing downhill all game long. We saw last year in this meeting that the Lions were able to move the ball easily up and down the field, but they struggled to run it and score in the red zone. That game script plays out for a lot of long Detroit drives that don’t result in touchdowns.
If you can stomach it, I do think this total is actually a little too high at 52.5. Unless you think the mangled Bucs offense is able to play like the Chiefs (I don’t), it’s a clear lean to the under.
Verdict: Lean under 52.5
Houston Texans at Seattle Seahawks (–3.5)
The Texans finally showed some offensive life in their Week 5 win against the Ravens, but Baltimore’s defense was so injured for that game that it makes me a bit hesitant to dramatically upgrade the Houston offense. This is a new Texans offensive coordinator, though, so I am open to the idea of this offense marginally improving throughout the course of the season, and especially out of the bye week.
That said, I will need to see more against a real defense before I buy into improvements. Seattle has been able to generate a ton of pressure this year, and that is a kryptonite of the Houston offense. Assuming the Seattle defense is a little healthier on the back end, this could be a slog for Houston to score much at all.
I bet Seattle –3 early in the week and still lean its way at –3.5, but I continue to be a buyer with the Seahawks in general. In this game, I’d bet Seattle at –3 or better.
Verdict: Lean Seattle –3.5, bet at –3
Favorite Five:
Packers -6.5
Giants-Broncos under 40.5
Cowboys team total over 27.5
Vikings +1.5
Rams-Jaguars under 45
Other Bets:
Steelers-Bengals over 43.5
Falcons-Niners over 46.5
Chiefs AFC 1-seed (+600)
Anthony Dabbundo
Anthony Dabbundo is a sports betting writer and podcast host featured on The Ringer Gambling Show, mostly concentrating on the NFL and soccer (he’s a tortured Spurs supporter). Plus, he’s a massive Phillies fan and can be heard talking baseball on The Ringer’s Philly Special. Also: Go Orange.Source link
