There comes a point in the NFL preseason when you get really tired of theorizing. There’s only so much you can say while trying to project who’s going to take the leap or which team will fall off. At some point, we all just need games to talk about again. No more training camp heroes, or “best shape of his life” commentary, or blind optimism about the outlook of a team whose real ceiling is probably 9-8.
Week 1 is upon us, with 16 games across four days and two continents. Eight hours of (mostly) commercial-free football on Sunday (if you’re into that kind of thing), or an NFL Sunday Ticket quad box (if you’re not). The regular season kicks off in South Philly with the Eagles raising a Super Bowl banner, and Week 1 concludes in Chicago, where Bears fans are buying all of the Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams hype.
The 2024 season was a historic one for favorites and chalk in the betting world, but this is a new year, and now it’s time for more best bets.
Here are my thoughts on all 16 Week 1 games, starting with Thursday Night Football’s NFC East showdown—and a Week 1 Friday special. All lines are from FanDuel as of Tuesday night, unless otherwise noted.
Hold Your Nose on Opening Night: Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5)
The market moved this spread from Eagles -6.5 to -8.5 following the trade that sent Micah Parsons from Dallas to Green Bay last week. The Eagles return 10 starters on offense and, on paper, they have a massive edge in the trenches. The Cowboys were a bottom-five run defense last year, while the Eagles finished first in rushing expected points added (EPA). It’s banner night for the Super Bowl champions against their biggest division rival, and the Eagles should be able to consistently move the ball against an undersized Dallas defensive front and win the game comfortably, right? If only gambling on football were this easy.
The Eagles defense has plenty of questions, especially in the secondary. The second cornerback spot opposite Quinyon Mitchell was a revolving door throughout training camp, and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has experimented with lining up second-year DB Cooper DeJean at nickel corner, safety, and outside corner. I have a ton of faith in Fangio, but I’m concerned that the defense, which will have five new starters, is considerably less deep than last season.
It’s easy to forget that the Cowboys went 36-15 in the three regular seasons prior to 2024, when they went 7-10 and didn’t have Dak Prescott for the majority of the year. Since the start of the 2021 season, Prescott ranks 10th in EPA per play among 81 quarterbacks with at least 150 plays. This tells me that when Prescott is healthy, Dallas’s offense has a pretty high floor and that makes it difficult to justify an 8.5-point spread in Week 1.
Maybe Prescott is cooked coming off the second major injury to his right leg since 2020. Maybe the Eagles will pick up right where they left off in February with another dominant performance. At +6.5 or +7, I have little interest in betting on Dallas. But we’ve seen Prescott succeed playing from behind late in games more than enough to trust Dallas as this line has ballooned beyond one score. It’s too convenient of a narrative for me to expect the Cowboys to roll over and quit following the Parsons trade.
Verdict: Bet Cowboys +8.5 (-115)
The São Paulo Special: Kansas City Chiefs (-3) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Stop me if you’ve heard this before: The Chiefs are a small favorite against the Chargers. It feels like the spread has been between 2.5 and 4.5 points every time these teams have played in the Patrick Mahomes–vs.–Justin Herbert era. And almost every time, the game is decided by one score. Herbert debuted in 2020. Here are all of his head-to-head meetings with Mahomes since then:
Herbert’s Matchups With Mahomes
There’s a lot of optimism about the Chiefs offense returning to form as an explosive unit in 2025, thanks to improvements to the offensive line and the return of important skill position players who missed time last season. Given that Josh Simmons is a rookie left tackle, Rashee Rice is suspended for the start of the season, and the Chargers defense under DC Jesse Minter is schemed to take away explosive plays, I don’t think Week 1 will be Kansas City’s breakout game (if it comes at all). Of the 42 quarterbacks who had at least 200 dropbacks last year, only Gardner Minshew and Tua Tagovailoa had a lower average air yards per attempt than Mahomes last year. Given the gradual decline during his career, that’s not something you can expect to snap right back to “normal.”
We’ve previously seen Andy Reid unveil creative new wrinkles to his offense in Week 1, and I wouldn’t put it past him to do that again, but an immediate offensive juggernaut in Kansas City isn’t something I’d bet on.
I expect the Chiefs to win this game, and I’d bet them at -2.5, but as long as the line stays at 3, I’m sitting the Brazil game out. If you do want to bet on this game, it’s important to monitor updates on the field conditions in São Paulo for Friday evening. The field was a mess when the Eagles and Packers played there last season, and that seemed to favor the offense and help increase the number of explosive plays.
Verdict: Lean Chiefs at -3, bet them only at -2.5
The Favorite Five
I’ll be highlighting my favorite five picks each week throughout the season, which will serve as a preview for my picks on The Ringer 107—a season-long contest between The Bill Simmons Podcast, The Ringer NFL Show, The Ringer Gambling Show, and The Ringer Fantasy Football Show. I’ll be partnering with Cousin Sal to make the Gambling Show’s picks.
Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) at Cleveland Browns
It’s been a dogpile on the Dawg Pound this summer, with constant media attention surrounding their fascinating (and probably disastrous) quarterback situation. Historically, divisional underdogs have been tremendous at home in Week 1, going 23-7 against the spread since 2010, per Action Network. This trend might not be specifically meaningful in any one game, but it gives credence to the idea that the market is often overconfident in projecting which teams will be really bad at the start of a new season. The Browns will probably be one of those bad teams, but at least at the start of the season, there may not be a unit in football that fits the dead-cat bounce profile more than Cleveland’s offense. The trio of Deshaun Watson, Jameis Winston, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson played so poorly at quarterback last season that Joe Flacco actually might give them some consistency—as well as the occasional deep ball to Jerry Jeudy. Cleveland’s offensive line really struggled in 2024, in part due to injuries, but the Bengals’ hapless pass rush might make the Browns’ blocking look solid.
The Browns have some real question marks in the secondary, but between the aggressive scheme of Jim Schwartz, dominant pass rusher Myles Garrett, and first-round rookie defensive tackle Mason Graham, Cleveland should be able to take advantage of a porous Cincinnati offensive line and generate pressure on Joe Burrow. The two main criticisms of Burrow are that he holds the ball too long and starts seasons slowly. Both work against him here.
The Bengals’ elite offense makes them a fun live underdog when they face the top teams, but I am happy to bet against them as a road favorite against a division opponent.
Verdict: Bet Browns +5.5
New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-5.5)
If you weren’t already mad at me for recommending a bet on the Cleveland Browns, you’re really going to dislike me advising a wager on the New York Giants in Week 1. Favorites did historically well in 2024, in large part because the bad teams totally bottomed out. The Giants perfectly fit that description. Remember last October, when the Giants were +3 at home against the eventual Super Bowl champion Eagles? They were a decently competitive team in the first half of the 2024 season.
Then the Giants pulled the plug on the Daniel Jones era and went to Tommy DeVito and Drew Lock for the rest of the year. They lost 11 of their final 12 games and wound up with the worst record in the NFC. With a tough schedule this year, it seems everyone has written off the Giants. I’m not here saying the Giants are going to be a playoff team, or even be a good team, but everything is relative in the betting markets. And I think they are relatively underrated.
The Giants now have Russell Wilson at quarterback and have added a potential game-changing pass rusher in first-round pick Abdul Carter, but this is largely the same team that lost to Washington by just three and five points in their two meetings last season. I’ve written at length about my concerns about the Commanders’ age profile, defense, and other regression indicators.
Verdict: Bet Giants +5.5
San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks are yet another home underdog that I’m backing in Week 1 against a division rival. It might seem hard to make the case for Seattle’s offense—the line doesn’t look good on paper, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are gone, and the quarterback change from Geno Smith to Sam Darnold is widely considered a downgrade at the most important position. However, this is partially a bet on new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak making real improvements to Seattle’s system. It’s meaningful that Kubiak was able to scheme around a terrible Saints offensive line early last season Kubiak relied heavily on play-action to help cover for that O-line, which helped buy time for Derek Carr to hit receivers downfield. This is a recipe that could also be successful for Darnold, a quarterback who needs time and wants to throw deep.
There’s a lot of helium in the market for the 49ers, and a lot of love for them in the futures market due to their easy schedule. Consider me a skeptic. Receiver Jauan Jennings has returned to practice, but the receiver room is thin without Brandon Aiyuk, who is still recovering from a knee injury, and the departed Deebo Samuel. If there’s anyone I trust to slow down a Kyle Shanahan offense, it’s Mike Macdonald and his Seattle defense.
Verdict: Bet Seahawks +2.5
Houston Texans at Los Angeles Rams (-3)
The Texans have installed a new offense as coordinator Nick Caley replaced Bobby Slowik, and I think there could be some real growing pains. Without running back Joe Mixon, who is out for at least the first month of the season with a foot injury, and with a bad offensive line, it’s going to be extremely difficult for Houston’s running game to get going. That means quarterback C.J. Stroud will be in a lot of difficult third-down situations against a ferocious Rams pass rush. I could see the Texans offense turning the corner as the season progresses, but not immediately.
Add in that Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford has barely played football this summer due to his back issue, and you have a recipe for a game that will be dominated by defense. The Texans are my no. 1 defense entering the 2025 season, and while I think trying to predict the league’s best defense is often a futile task, Houston has the most talented group at all three levels.
The Rams have been slow starters in each of the last two seasons under Sean McVay. It seems McVay might be willing to sacrifice some early season offensive efficiency and win probability to keep his team healthy and fresh for later in the season. As a result, I bet the under 44.5 in this game.
Verdict: Bet Under 44.5 (-115)
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-2.5)
Green Bay is one of the most stable teams in the NFL. They retained defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley after the unit took a major step forward in his first year. Compared to the immense turnover on the coaching staff in Detroit, Green Bay has a marginal early-season edge over their NFC North rival. Not only are the Lions replacing both play-calling coordinators, but the retirement of center Frank Ragnow is also a key hole to fill. Detroit has the more established skill position group, but Matt LaFleur is the guy I want holding the video game controller to make the offense go. No disrespect to new Lions offensive coordinator John Morton, but he’s going to have to prove it to me.
While Jordan Love has been inconsistent at times, the Packers finished sixth and fourth, respectively, in offensive efficiency in his two seasons as the starting quarterback.
The Lions won the first meeting last season after Green Bay struggled in the red zone in a game played in a rainstorm. Detroit won the second matchup on a field goal as time expired. There’s a perception that there was a massive gap between the two teams last year, but DVOA certainly didn’t see it that way:
Detroit’s and Green Bay’s DVOA
If you’re not sold on Morton as a replacement for Ben Johnson, you could make a convincing case that Green Bay should be rated higher than Detroit on both offense and defense. With the Packers at home, it’s easy to justify laying up to -2.5 on Green Bay.
Verdict: Bet Green Bay -2.5
The Degenerate Special: Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)
If you were to list the teams that enter the season with the worst vibes, the Dolphins and Colts would be on top. Miami head coach Mike McDaniel is the betting favorite to be the first coach fired. The Colts picked former Giants bust Daniel Jones to be their starting quarterback over 2023 first-round pick Anthony Richardson.
The under is tempting here because of how little each quarterback throws downfield, and the strength of both defenses is in the trenches. Both secondaries are dealing with a handful of injuries, but Tua Tagovailoa (who ranked bottom-two in air yards last year) and Jones are hardly the quarterbacks I expect to exploit those absences.
Indianapolis has consistently played fast under head coach Shane Steichen, which scares me when it comes to taking the under. However, there is a chance the Colts offensive line takes a step back after losing two starters in free agency, and that both offenses will struggle to score points. Last year, the Colts’ run game was considerably less effective when Joe Flacco was the quarterback as opposed to Richardson, and it’s still unclear how well they’ll be able to run with Jones, who is far more mobile than Flacco but less talented of a runner than Richardson.
Verdict: Lean under 46.5, but only if you have to
You Won’t See it on RedZone: Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) at New York Jets
This is a funny game rife with narratives as former Steelers QB Justin Fields faces former Jets QB Aaron Rodgers, but it will be buried in the 1 p.m. ET Sunday slate and probably won’t be appearing on your RedZone much until it’s a one-score game in the fourth quarter—like seemingly every Pittsburgh game has been for the last 10 years.
Every game in Week 1 has a total of at least 42.5 points except this one, which recently moved from 39.5 down to 38.5. With Rodgers taking control of the Pittsburgh offense, the Steelers will almost certainly be playing slower than last season. Rodgers likes to take command at the line of scrimmage pre-snap and use most of the play clock. His offenses have been the slowest in the NFL every season he’s played since 2019.
The Steelers have a considerable coaching and special-teams edge on paper. For that reason alone, I’d lean toward betting them in Week 1.
Verdict: Lean Steelers at -2.5 or better, but you can probably wait to bet until they’re behind.
The Week 1 Overreaction Classic: Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) at Chicago Bears
I’ve circled this game as the one where the public is most likely to overreact to the result. If the Vikings win a divisional road game in J.J. McCarthy’s NFL debut and he plays well, it could dramatically change the outlook on Minnesota in the eyes of the oddsmakers and pundits. On the other side, Chicago is a trendy pick to be 2025’s “most improved” team with the addition of Ben Johnson and a rebuilt offensive line in year two of Caleb Williams, and a strong Week 1 performance against a talented Vikings team would be validation for the Bears’ process. .
With so much uncertainty around these offenses, let’s focus more on what we do know about these two teams: good defense. Dennis Allen wasn’t successful as a head coach in New Orleans, but his defenses were consistently well above average. Since 2015, when Allen became defensive coordinator, the Saints defense ranked third in EPA against the run and 10th in total defensive EPA. Brian Flores’s Minnesota defenses have feasted on inexperienced quarterbacks for years, and his 2025 unit might be the most talented group he’s had in his three seasons with the Vikings. This will be a huge test for Williams and Johnson. All signs point toward a low-scoring slugfest.
Verdict: Bet Under 44.5
Dark Horse Battle: Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots (-2.5)
This is a quietly important game for AFC playoff leverage. Whoever wins this gets to live up to the preseason claim that they are in fact a true dark horse wild-card contender. No one expects these two teams to be able to compete at the top of the AFC, but outside of the Big Three of Baltimore, Kansas City, and Buffalo, the conference is pretty wide open. This game has an intriguing coaching matchup, with Pete Carroll and Mike Vrabel returning to lead new teams after a year away from coaching. With these two defensive-minded head coaches, typically I would count on a low-scoring, hard-nosed game.
However, the Patriots went over the total in nine of the 12 games that Drake Maye started last season. Like new Raiders QB Geno Smith, Maye wasn’t afraid to push the ball downfield. Smith had issues in the red zone last season in Seattle, but he has a better offensive line and offensive system in Las Vegas. With Maye also having a better offensive infrastructure in year two, with new offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, this is a sneaky over game for me. I’d need +3 to bet the Raiders to cover, but could see the total going over.
Verdict: Bet Over 43.5, lean Raiders
The Favorite You Want to Bet but Shouldn’t: Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) at New Orleans Saints
It’s impossible to justify the Cardinals being a more than a 6-point road favorite against anyone, even the lowly Saints, in Week 1. The Cardinals were an average team last year. Betting spreads are usually derived by taking the market power rating for both teams, then adjusting for home field, rest, etc. If we assume the Cardinals are around a zero (average team), then you’d have to think the Saints are roughly eight points worse than an average team (once adjusting for home field advantage). That is a massive assumption for any NFL team in Week 1.
The Saints joined the Browns as the bad teams to pile on in the preseason. But the New Orleans roster isn’t terrible on paper. That said, I don’t want any part of the Spencer Rattler experience. He was 46th out of 47 quarterbacks in EPA + CPOE composite, ahead of only Dorian Thompson-Robinson last year. This game is the easiest pass on the board.
Verdict: Pass
Defense Might Be Optional: Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5)
This game features the two worst defenses in the NFL from last year. The scary part is that I’m not sure how much either defense will be better this year, even with Carolina’s standout defensive tackle Derrick Brown returning from injury. Jacksonville made a much-needed scheme change and switched coordinators, but the roster still is lacking in talent.
This is a make-or-break year for the quarterbacks in this game. And if either Trevor Lawrence or Bryce Young (or both!) has a bad game, it would be a major red flag. I’ll be staying away from a side or total in this matchup.
Verdict: Pass
Your Survivor Pool Pick Is in Danger: Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos (-7.5)
If you participate in survivor pools, you probably remember last September’s carnage, after a slew of massive underdogs pulled off upsets in the first four weeks of the season. The Broncos are a popular pick in survivor pools this year because of this big line and plenty of preseason hype surrounding the team.
I’m higher on the Titans and lower on the Broncos than the market entering the season, but I’m not too keen to bet on them here. Denver is a dominant home team in the first two weeks because of the altitude advantage, too. Historically, the Broncos are 56-15-2 at home in the first two weeks of the season. Tennessee’s Cam Ward is still a rookie quarterback making his first start on the road, and he’s doing so against an aggressive defense that excelled last year. Even Jayden Daniels and C.J. Stroud, who went on to have excellent rookie seasons, got blown out in Week 1.
The Broncos were excellent when they were favorites last year because their defense feasted on bad offenses, and they have a methodical and risk-averse offense. Their struggles came when they played elite competition or had to play from behind. I don’t see that being a huge issue here.
Verdict: Pass
Fun to Watch, Not to Bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) at Atlanta Falcons
After watching Ryan Grubb’s performance as an NFL offensive coordinator for the Seahawks last season, how Kalen DeBoer is doing as head coach at Alabama, and Ja’Lynn Polk’s underwhelming career so far as a Patriots backup wide receiver, I’m starting to wonder if maybe we’re all underrating Michael Penix Jr. The former University of Washington quarterback showed impressive flashes as a rookie in the final three games of last season, but it’s also important to consider the context of the opponents. He faced the Giants, Commanders, and Panthers, who were three of the eight worst defenses in the league. In Week 1, he faces a Bucs defense that isn’t the ’85 Bears, but will be a considerably more difficult challenge.
The Bucs offense has injury issues, as they’ll be without star tackle Tristan Wirfs and receivers Jalen McMillan and Chris Godwin in this game. That puts a lot of pressure on rookie wideout Emeka Egbuka to handle a heavy load as the WR2 behind Mike Evans. The spread has been stuck on Tampa -2.5 all summer, but the total has bounced around. It’s been as high as 48.5 and as low as 46. This could be a sneaky entertaining 1 p.m. ET game, especially if Penix is throwing deep a lot, but there are better games to bet on.
Verdict: Pass
The AFC Runners-Up Invitational: Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (-1.5)
I saved the best game of the Week 1 slate for last. The Bills and Ravens played in the divisional round in January and the line was basically a pick’em. So what’s changed since then? Not much.
Buffalo retooled its defense to try to improve its down-to-down consistency after the Bills became too reliant on generating turnovers. If you remove the plays in which they forced turnovers last year, the Bills were 28th in EPA allowed. It was an opportunistic defense, but that’s hard to sustain year over year and is not a formula for beating elite teams. Sean McDermott gives the defense a high floor and the Bills are an above-average defense by DVOA almost every season, but his defenses haven’t been able to stay healthy enough to truly match up against elite offenses.
The Ravens will have Zay Flowers and backup scatback Keaton Mitchell healthy after both missed the playoff game. Baltimore outplayed Buffalo on a play-to-play basis both times these teams met last season. The difference between the Ravens’ win in the regular season and the playoff loss was costly turnovers (stop me if you’ve heard that before) and miscues. I bet Buffalo in January and felt a little lucky to get that one across the line. This time, I think Baltimore gets revenge for the playoffs.
Verdict: Bet Ravens +1.5
Bets I’ve made for Week 1 and what the lines were when I got them:
Favorite five for The Ringer 107:
- Seahawks +2.5
- Browns +5.5
- Giants +6.5
- Packers -2.5
- Texans/Rams u44.5
Other bets:
- Cowboys +8.5
- Ravens +1.5
- Vikings/Bears u43.5
- Raiders/Patriots o43.5
Anthony Dabbundo
Anthony Dabbundo is a sports betting writer and podcast host featured on The Ringer Gambling Show, mostly concentrating on the NFL and soccer (he’s a tortured Spurs supporter). Plus, he’s a massive Phillies fan and can be heard talking baseball on The Ringer’s Philly Special. Also: Go Orange.Source link
