AUSTIN, Texas — If you thought you could count Texas out of the College Football Playoff race, think again. The No. 20 Longhorns are very much alive.
A week after hanging on by a thread at Mississippi State, the Longhorns constructed one of their best performances of the season in a 34-31 win over Vanderbilt that they controlled for most of the day before a late Commodores’ rally made it close.
The win is the Longhorns’ fourth consecutive and second this season over a team ranked in The Associated Press Top 25. Just a few days before the first College Football Playoff selection committee rankings, Texas (7-2, 4-1 SEC) will enter the homestretch very much in control of its CFP chances.
HORNS WIN AT HOME 🤘 pic.twitter.com/pLoSfCVmbS
— Texas Football (@TexasFootball) November 1, 2025
How Texas dominated
The Longhorns set the tone on the first play from scrimmage, a 75-yard touchdown on a swing pass from Arch Manning to Ryan Wingo, in which Wingo evaded a pair of would-be tacklers on his way down the right sideline. From there, the Longhorns played some of the cleanest, most well-executed offense they have all season long, scoring on six of their next seven possessions. And it wasn’t just one-hit wonder plays; Texas sustained drives, with three scoring marches of at least eight plays and 68 or more yards that were at least four minutes long.
Manning, who was limited in practice this week while in concussion protocol, was sharp, accurate and well-protected. He generally got the ball out of his hands quickly, but the Texas offensive line, which may have had its best performance of the season, gave him ample time in the pocket on longer-developing pass plays.
And though the run game wasn’t dominant, it was plenty effective. Quintrevion Wisner broke tackles to gain extra yardage and navigated the traffic between the tackles well, offering a good changeup to the quick-passing game.
Offensively, Vanderbilt had a hard time doing much against the stout Longhorns front for the first three quarters. The running game was virtually nonexistent, making every other offensive play much more challenging for the Commodores.
Texas’ speedy pass rush effectively corralled quarterback Diego Pavia, preventing him from making many off-schedule explosive plays. Pavia was able to fire a strike to tight end Eli Stowers for a first-half touchdown on third-and-10. Still, otherwise, Texas kept Vanderbilt quiet offensively until the game’s final 10 minutes, when Pavia led three consecutive touchdown drives to turn a 34-10 deficit into just three points.
Texas will undoubtedly have to close better than it did on Saturday. The Longhorns were in complete control before allowing three scoring drives that went for 233 combined yards, including a conversion on fourth-and-19 from the Vanderbilt 2 when Pavia found Junior Sherrill for a 21-yard completion to stay alive. — Khan
What the win means for Texas
The Longhorns still have an uphill battle to a CFP berth with three games remaining, but adding a quality win like the one they scored on Saturday over Vanderbilt will only help their case. Nearly a month ago, following Texas’ road loss to Florida, the Playoff seemed far-fetched. The offense was a mess, and Texas hadn’t yet beaten a Power 4 team in two tries. However, four consecutive wins have changed things — even though Austin Mock’s model still has the Horns with only a 6 percent chance of earning a bid.
The win over rival Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl steadied the ship, but even in the last two weeks, the Longhorns have won on the margins, needing overtime to beat Kentucky and Mississippi State. There was continued frustration with the offense until it finally got into a groove late in the comeback win over the Bulldogs.
Perhaps Texas figured something out in Starkville, because what we saw on Saturday against the Commodores looks a lot more like the Texas offense we expected to see entering this season, rather than what we saw for much of the first two months of the season.
The finishing kick for Texas is brutal with two top-five teams remaining. The Longhorns are off next weekend, then travel to No. 5 Georgia on Nov. 15 before finishing with home games against rivals Arkansas and No. 3 Texas A&M.
Winning out would virtually guarantee Texas a CFP berth, but depending on how everything else shakes out, a three-loss Texas with a win over either Georgia or A&M would still have a case for an at-large bid. — Khan
Vanderbilt’s CFP hopes take a hit but aren’t dead yet
The Commodores picked a bad time for their worst defensive performance of the season — right before the CFP committee puts out its initial rankings Tuesday — and Vanderbilt’s margin for error is gone. Mock’s model has the Dores’ chances at 14 percent (down from 26 before the game), but Clark Lea’s team still has a clear path to a spot in the 12-team field. It’s pretty simple: Win the three remaining games, home vs. Auburn, home vs. Kentucky and at Tennessee. That should do it. Also, based on Vandy’s terrible defensive performance Saturday and recent history vs. Josh Heupel’s Tennessee offense, it won’t be easy. In case a glut of 10-2 teams materializes, Texas and Tennessee’s success between now and the end of the season could help Vandy’s case. — Rexrode
Pavia’s Heisman Trophy pursuit takes a damaging detour
Pavia went off late and ended with huge numbers (27 for 38, 365 yards, three touchdowns, one rushing touchdown) after his costly fumble on the first series of the game.
However, his candidacy was always going to rely on intangibles and team success that kept Vanderbilt among the most talked-about teams in the sport — this was never going to be about gaudy statistics. He can play perfectly in this offense without those.
Two losses in huge national games, both featuring big turnovers by him, probably knock him out as the potential winner. If he’s great from here, especially in a win at Tennessee, he could get enough votes for an invitation to New York. — Rexrode
