Tesla is slated to release third-quarter results after the stock market’s closing bell Wednesday, and most analysts are split between cautious and optimistic toward Elon Musk ‘s flagship business. Earlier this month, the electric vehicle maker reported a 7% year-over-year jump in quarterly vehicle deliveries . Customers rushed to buy cars ahead of the expiration of a key federal tax credit, which ended on Sept. 30 as part of a spending bill President Donald Trump passed in July. Heading into its third-quarter print, analysts surveyed by FactSet expect that Tesla will see earnings rise 22% from a year ago, to 56 cents per share, on $26.54 billion in revenue, or 5.4% higher than the year-earlier period. These expectations are optimistic, given that Tesla’s second-quarter results missed Wall Street’s estimates on both the top and bottom lines. Automotive revenue came in at $16.7 billion in the last quarter, down from $19.9 billion from a year prior. Shares of Tesla reached their lows of 2025 in April but have steadily recovered since Musk withdrew from his public position within the Trump administration. Shares are now trading near their all-time highs, with the stock up 4% on the year. TSLA YTD mountain TSLA YTD chart Heading into earnings, Wall Street appears split on Tesla. LSEG data shows that 26 of 54 analysts rate the stock a buy or strong buy, while 17 assign it a hold rating and 11 see it as an underperform or sell. Analysts are watching for any color about Tesla’s U.S. demand post-expiration of the EV tax credit, alongside any updates about the rollout of Tesla’s robotaxi network. Here’s what else analysts are saying before Tesla’s latest earnings report. Wells Fargo: Underweight rating and $120 price target Wells Fargo’s price target implies the risk of 73% downside ahead, based on Tuesday’s close. “Likely wins Q3 battle, but war worse from here. … To reflect strong deliveries, we raise our 2025E EPS from $1.20 to $1.35, but lower 2026E-2028E estimates reflecting weaker growth. FSD is now under another NHTSA investigation, impacting TSLA’s credibility on AV. Robots could be +10 years away from true commercialization given the importance of touch & nimbleness.” UBS: Sell, $247 UBS’ new target of $247, up from $215, is roughly 44% below where shares of Tesla closed on Tuesday. “We continue to believe Tesla stock price is disconnected from fundamentals and the valuation is stretched. This is not to say we don’t see bright future for some of the AI initiatives (robotaxi, Optimus) rather that little consideration is given to how much present value is already attributable to these ventures in the current stock price. However, we believe that many investors have become ‘valuation agnostic’ on TSLA. Through the lens of TSLA being a story stock, and the stock reacting incrementally to each ‘news/narrative data point,’ we believe there could be continued momentum in the shares. Musk tends to focus on the bright future on earnings calls. The annual meeting in November could also be another positive event. We believe the news flow on robo-taxis will get incrementally positive as well. We believe TSLA will try to keep news flow positive into the annual meeting.” Barclays: Equal weight, $350 The firm’s forecast of $350, raised from $275, is roughly 21% below where shares of Tesla closed on Tuesday. “We believe fundamentals have been secondary to the broader theme of AV/AI narrative command for Tesla, with the AV/AI opportunity remaining front and center amid an attractive TAM opportunity, regardless of how distant the opportunity/ monetization may be. … We lean neutral to slightly negative into 3Q earnings. Amid the stock’s rally, we believe the deliveries beat and strong expected 3Q result are already priced into the stock; and any reminder of weak near/mid-term fundamentals beyond 3Q could be negative for the stock. That said, any weakness might be short-lived, as we could subsequently see further excitement building beyond the call into the Nov 6 AGM — which we expect to be a key event reinforcing Tesla’s future growth narrative.” Cantor Fitzgerald: Overweight, $355 Analyst Andres Sheppard’s target would equate to a 20% downside in the stock. “In Q3, Tesla delivered 497,099 vehicles, significantly above sell-side consensus of 443,079, and above 462,890 in 3Q24 (and its highest in company history). Of the total vehicles delivered, 481,166 were Model 3/Y and 15,933 comprised the other models (Model S, Model X, Cybertruck). This was due primarily to a ‘push-forward effect’ from consumers who rushed to purchase or lease EVs ahead of the $7,500 EV tax credit, which expired on 9/30. YTD, Tesla has now delivered and produced ~1.2M vehicles globally, and we expect a weaker Q4. For FY25, we expect fewer deliveries than FY24 (~1.8M).” TD Cowen: Buy, $509 Analyst Itay Michaeli’s projection of where the stock should trade is almost 15% above where Tesla’s Tuesday close. “The stock has traded well into Q3, supported by a sizable Q3 delivery beat, the CEO compensation proposal and continued AV/AI progress. In light of this and in keeping with our discipline of assessing sentiment & catalysts, we see an overall balanced setup into Q3. That said, as we’ve previously written, the product goals outlined in the CEO compensation proposal increased our confidence in the LT story, which is now reflected in our increased price target (see below). Additionally, despite the run-up in the shares, we think 2026 expectations remain fairly muted given significant EV market pressures.” Melius Research: Buy, $520 The firm’s forecast is 17% above Tesla’s Tuesday closing price. “We see Tesla shares as a must own. The disruptive force of AI will wreck multi trillion dollar industries, starting with auto. … We launch at Buy, with a $520 target, largely based on assumed successful autonomy in cars. Valuation in a stock so large and volatile is unfortunately guesswork. Our target assumes Tesla’s autonomy push is successful in passenger cars, converting a large share of the rideshare market to Tesla, and then expanding the market manyfold.” — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report. ( Learn the best 2026 strategies from inside the NYSE with Josh Brown and others at CNBC PRO Live. Tickets and info here . )
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