Stop Believing; The 2025 Nebraska Football Season Will Be More Of The Same

Nebraska won’t make a jump this year.

Why would you expect anything different?

Nebraska’s season opener is now less than a dozen days away. With most of the offseason in the rearview mirror, we continue to talk ourselves into a variety of things happening – mostly good things, mind you – for Nebraska football in 2025. After months of research on the cast of characters that will decide whether or not the 2025 Cornhuskers can finally be the team to break through, I imagine many of you have reached a point where you are absolutely, unequivocally, believing the big jump is finally coming.

Don’t.

Last week, I wrote about four reasons why I believe in Nebraska in 2025 and why I’m ready to get hurt again:

On a recent episode of The Athletic Football Show, Dave Helman and Derrik Klassen gave me the inspiration for this exercise, as they looked around the NFL at the characters or teams in the NFL that they’re believing in one more time, even if they shouldn’t. Ultimately, they might not totally believe what they’re saying, but they certainly want to.

By the time I listened to the podcast, I knew I had a similar list brewing for Nebraska.

Which is why we’re here today.

There’s no doubt you too have your own list of reasons why you’re buying in; why you’re ready to be hurt again with Husker football.

Today? I’m reminding myself (and you) why believing in this program is a futile exercise. Want some Kool-Aid? It’s available at a different establishment. Not only do I not want to get hurt again, but I’m protecting myself from it being a possibility by not even allowing myself to think it can happen. I have been hurt too many times and won’t let myself get hurt again.

Let’s dive into the reasons why.

1. The defense is about to regress

Where to begin with the best phase of Nebraska football in each of Matt Rhule’s first two seasons? There are new pieces all over the place, and it starts at the top; Tony White is gone, off to Florida State to lead their defense. So too is Terrance Knighton, the man who was in charge of the defensive line, arguably the most impressive position group on Nebraska’s roster in each of the last two years. 

Five opponents were held to 10 or fewer points in 2024. Six opponents didn’t even pick up 300 yards, including the eventual national champs; Ohio State’s 285 yards were their second-fewest all season. Only Michigan held them to fewer yards (252) in 2024. Going a step further, the Blackshirts allowed only six rushing touchdowns all season long, good for third-best in the entire country. Ten teams failed to score a rushing touchdown, and for the first time since 1939, Nebraska didn’t allow a rushing touchdown at home.

Ty Robinson is gone. Nash Hutmacher is gone. Jimari Butler is gone.

And some people think this side of the ball could be better?

John Butler has now been promoted to defensive coordinator, and a whole host of (a) new transfers and (b) returning players who have been on the roster will finally get their chance at starting. 2.5 months ago, I wrote this about Butler’s time leading Penn State’s defense over a decade ago:

PSU’s defense finished 35th in SP+ [in 2013], which isn’t too bad when you consider they were in year two of a bowl ban. And yet, it was sandwiched around rankings of 7th (2011), 16th (2012), 10th (2014), and 16th (2015). In fact, even with a defensive SP+ ranking of 34th during the disastrous 2020 campaign, the 2013 unit was actually the second-worst defense for Penn State since 2002.

The defensive line is too young, the defense as a whole is relying on too many transfers, and the defensive backfield actually isn’t the strength you believe it is. There are just a whole lot of bodies in the secondary with experience, so it seems like you should be buying in.

There’s absolutely a world where Nebraska’s offense has gotten the better of Nebraska’s defense in camp because the offense is that good. There’s also a world where that is more on the defense, not being good enough. The longer this offseason has gone, the more I have talked myself out of improvement on this side of the ball. The offense might have to carry the team at times. Will they be able to do so?

2. Seriously, how good do you feel about the depth in the running back room?

I don’t think there’s a single media member that’s (a) as bullish on Emmett Johnson as I am and (b) that’s talked about him as much as I have throughout the 2025 offseason. Jack Mitchell and I have practically done full podcasts on the junior running back, trying to imagine what his ceiling is as a running back. In April, we asked if he could take a leap. One reason why I have asked that question over and over? His numbers pre-Dana Holgorsen and post-Dana Holgorsen.

On average, he put up more than 100 yards from scrimmage per game over the final four games of the 2024 season. Correlated to a 12-game schedule, he would have been close to a 1000-yard rusher. More than anyone out there, I do think this is possible.

And yet, we don’t really know, do we? It’s one thing to have 117 rushes (nine per game) and 39 receptions (three per game) for a total of 12 touches per contest. It’s another entirely to practically average that per half in each game over the course of a season. If Nebraska had added another back to the mix this offseason, this point probably would have been moot; the offense probably wouldn’t have asked him to carry and catch the ball that much.

But now? Don’t they have to?

Coming out of spring ball, it seemed like Kwinten Ives was going to be the obvious number two. I had my reservations at the time, but he earned that opportunity. Then, he got hurt in the first practice of training camp and missed too much time not to wonder how far he’s fallen on the depth chart. Up next are Mekhi Nelson and Isaiah Mozee, the latter having moved from wide receiver to running back this summer.

And that’s what Nebraska will be relying on to run the football in the Big Ten Conference? Hell, that’s what Nebraska will be relying on to run the football in the season-opener vs. All-Big 12 defensive tackle Dontay Corleone and Cincinnati?  

According to Game On Paper, Nebraska will face rushing defenses that finished 2024 ranked 6th, 19th, 26th, 31st, 37th, 39th, and 45th in EPA per rush. Michigan came in at 61st in the same statistic, and I’d be incredibly surprised if they were that low again.

Is the running game going to be good enough to take pressure off of Dylan Raiola and the passing offense? As bullish as I am on the offensive line in 2025, I just don’t know if they have the horses in the backfield. There’s a flashing red light right now that’s alerting us; RUNNING BACK DEPTH! It will cost Nebraska this season.

3. Nebraska’s in-game management leaves a lot to be desired

In Matt Rhule’s two seasons at Nebraska, he’s lost 13 games. In quite a few of those losses, in-game coaching, timeout usage, and general clock management were the stories.

Will it change? Unlike with other spots on the roster, this isn’t something I can wish into existence. Nebraska did something to improve play calling. They did something to improve the wide receiver position. You can look up and down the roster and coaching staff and find those ways that they improved.

It’s a lot harder to do so with in-game management. If this is going to improve, it’ll probably be some combination of fewer one-score games, better on-field management by Dylan Raiola, and might involve a little bit of luck as well.

I’m dubious.

4. I just need to see it before I believe it

We’ve reached the portion of the show that can’t be predicted with numbers or research. I can’t convince you I’m right or wrong here; you believe what you believe with Nebraska football’s recent futility, and either they’ll come out of it because they’re due or they won’t, because why on earth would you believe they can?

I don’t need to bore you with the recent stretch of Husker football’s struggles. I’ve already poured enough time and effort into doing just that. But what I can tell you is this: I will believe Nebraska football has escaped this path of destruction when they give me a true, honest-to-God reason to think they actually have.

I picked breakthrough seasons in 2017 (yikes), a bounce back season in 2018 (double yikes), and a division championship in 2019 (triple yikes). By 2020, I was a man beaten down by years of unfounded optimism. For the first time in my life, I would pick them to finish with a sub-.500 record, yet still overshot their number of wins in 2021 (picked 5-7, finished 3-9) and 2022 (picked 5-7, finished 4-8). Even in Matt Rhule’s first two seasons, I set the Kool-Aid aside with a 6-6 pick in 2023 (finished 5-7) and a 7-5 pick in 2024 (finished 6-6 before picking up a bowl win to go 7-6). Without knowing what record I picked* in 2020, I’ve missed the mark on Nebraska’s win-loss record in seven of the last eight seasons.  

*There’s a lot from 2020 we’d like to forget, though my record prediction is one thing I’d like to remember!

And so I ask, why is now the time to believe it’s going to happen? Because they’re due? Weren’t they due in any of the above seasons? Maybe this is a 9-3 or 10-2 team. Maybe the program is on the way up. I’d absolutely love to get to Black Friday at about 2:30 central, realizing how wrong I was for ever doubting this head coach and program to finally have the season fans have been waiting for around here for quite some time.

But before that happens, I won’t believe it’s possible until I see it with my own two eyes.

Do you agree with Josh? Or is he full of you know what? Let him know which side of the arguement you’re on by sending him an email: joshpeterson.huskermax@gmail.com.

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