Staff Predictions: No. 8 Florida State Seminoles vs. Virginia Cavaliers

The 8th-ranked Florida State Seminoles hit the road for the first time this season to begin their 8-straight ACC conference game schedule, by facing the Virginia Cavaliers at Scott Stadium, up yonder in Charlottesville, Va. The nationally televised Friday night under the lights matchup kicks off at 7:oo p.m. and will be televised on ESPN.

FSU (3-0, 0-0 ACC) leads the all-time series with Virginia 15-4. The Seminoles and Cavaliers are meeting for the first time since 2019 after playing each other the first 15 years FSU was in the ACC. The Hoos have won two of the last three meetings, including a 31-24 decision at Scott Stadium the last time the two teams met in 2019, when Virginia scored three touchdowns in the fourth quarter, including two in the final six minutes, to defeat Florida State 31-24.

After opening the season by upsetting the then 8th-ranked Alabama Tide as a 13.5-point underdog, FSU did what was expected of them against this year’s slate of cupcakes. The stats were outstanding, records were tied or broken, and the offense, the defense, and the special teams (well…except for the FSU punt returners’ aversion to calling for a fair catch) were all outstanding against their overmatched competition. Gus Malzahn got to play with all his new toys, and FSU emptied the bench. The Noles’ accolades so far are well documented, so let’s take a look at the Wahoos.

This year, Virginia (3-1, 1-0 ACC) brings a well-balanced, disciplined team under 4th-year head coach Tony Elliott (14-24). On offense:

Defensively, Virginia is average, ranking 44th in total defense, 31st in rushing defense, and 73rd in passing yards allowed.

Some of the storylines you will undoubtedly hear about from the game announcers before and during the ESPN broadcast will include:

For the recruitniks, tight end Sage Ennis, who transferred to Virginia from Clemson in 2024, is a native of Tallahassee and attended Lincoln High School.

According to FanDuel, FSU is a 6.5-point favorite, with the over/under set at 59.5 points.

As we await the kickoff, you judge for yourself, but remember this is a terrible camera angle that is in no way an accurate representation of the actual event.

Last week, when answering a mailbag question, I wrote that the biggest trap game for Florida State would be against Virginia. After the Cavaliers dismantled Stanford, that prediction will come true. The Seminoles are in a precarious spot this Friday, with their first in-conference game of the season occurring on the road in a short week, with a top-5 Miami looming. Throw in the fact that 1. FSU historically struggles in Charlottesville, and 2. Virginia holds one of the best offenses in the country, and the Noles will be in one.

But while the spot is horrible, I believe in the maturity of the Florida State roster. Each time a response was needed, in-game or off the field, Mike Norvell’s team answered the bell to this point in the season. All week long, the coaches harped on the danger of the Virginia roster, and nobody will be looking ahead to next weekend.

While it is the first time for this group going on the road, this is a veteran roster with plenty of games in hostile environments under their belt. Virginia keeps it close early, but the ground game breaks through later on to salt it away; win and cover.

I’m looking forward to seeing the Seminoles play against a legitimate opponent on the road. Friday night’s game will tell us a great deal about just how good and focused this year’s squad is. Who would’ve thought a month ago that FSU’s likely toughest two-game stretch would be Virginia and Miami?

I appreciate Virginia trying to conjure good vibes with the throwback uniforms. I appreciate that what is normally a whine-and-cheese crowd will be a little rowdier Friday night. I appreciate that defender Kam Robinson, whom I’m still salty about FSU losing out on, will be back to full strength. I also appreciate knowing that Virginia has a couple of injuries along the offensive line that could really hamper their offense. It’s time for D Jax to have a big boy game.

These ‘Noles don’t get caught looking ahead. The offense keeps humming, and the defensive line shows up in a big way.

Florida State 41, Virginia 20

Sheesh. I correctly predicted 4 different guys would score a rushing TD against Kent State, but even I didn’t expect 3 to do it in the first quarter alone. The Gus Bus offense is rolling.

Now the Seminoles leave Tallahassee for the first time all season for a Friday (lame) date with the Wahoos. Not only is this game the start of FSU’s toughest three-game stretch of the regular season, but it likely features the best opposing quarterback the ‘Noles will see in the regular season, too. Chandler Morris is the real deal. He’s already got two seasons of 140+ QB rating under his belt, and so far this year he’s playing at the highest level of his career.

So, how does FSU slow him down? By keeping him on the sidelines. UVA’s defense has been gashed by opposing rushing attacks this season, and while they did get a couple of impact players back from injury last week, I don’t see how they keep the Gus Bus under 250 rushing yards. This will wear down the UVA front seven and ultimately allow FSU to turn a back-and-forth first-half battle into a relatively comfortable win. Call it this year’s “2013 BC game.”

Morris is playing well at quarterback for the Cavaliers, and I like the scheme Tony Elliott is running there. I think they’re gonna be able to put up points despite some shuffling of their offensive line. That’s not an indictment of Tony White’s defense, but I am interested to see how they do against the Hoos’ offense.

On the other side of the ball, I think FSU will have success on the ground. Gus Malzahn seems to have rediscovered his groove, and I don’t think Virginia has what it would take to stop this unit.

Whatever kind of game this ends up being, I like the ’Noles’ chances. Shootout, low scoring, etc. FSU is too good, and this team plays pissed off. Show us that again and take the next step to conference title contender.

The last few weeks have been a real tease. After the stunner that was the Alabama game, FSU has delivered a few very impressive performances against extremely weak competition. That made us have to wait four whole weeks from the season opener before we finally start to gain more real data points about this team. If FSU goes on the road and wins this game comfortably, that will tell me something about this squad.

This UVA team, while not nearly as talented as FSU’s roster, is much improved. The offense led by Chandler Morris is no joke. However, I’m not convinced the Cavaliers’ defense can stop the Seminoles. Considering NC State ran for over 200 yards against them, it’s fair to think FSU can do the same. I think the ball keeps rolling here into a HUGE game next week at Doak.

This feels like a game with all the “soft” factors playing against FSU. Short week, Friday night game, throwback jerseys, Miami next week. It’s truly a trap game.

We’ll really get to see if Norvell and this staff have changed since last season— can they have this bunch ready to play? My guess is that FSU has learned some lessons and will come to play, but it will be closer than you think.

This celebration of the 30th anniversary of Virginia’s win over #2 FSU in 1995 comes at the perfect time. They are even going to wear their ‘95 throwback uniforms to commemorate one of the greatest days in Wahoo football history. At the game’s end, this celebration will also remind the Hoos that after their win 30 years ago, the Seminoles went on to trounce them for the next 9 meetings in a row, establishing Florida State as their Daddy.

I guess if you can only beat a team 4 times in 19 tries, all victories are celebration-worthy. Adding to NT&T’s comment, I say let them enjoy their creamy Brie with a nutty Pinot Noir, or aged Camembert with a citrusy and robust Cabernet Sauvignon, or earthy Goat cheese with a crisp, high-tannin Sauvignon Blanc, pairings, as they celebrate their historic win. (I’ve had this one saved in the chamber and since we are not playing UNC this year I’ll go ahead and use it on the Wahoos). But I digress.

This FSU team is not looking ahead and is focused squarely on a decent Virginia team, which so far appears to be improved on the offensive side of the ball. The Wahoos have run for over 200 yards against their last 3 opponents, none of which had the defensive talent and depth they will face against FSU. The Noles’ defense will contain their running attack, forcing Morris to throw, and while they have some nifty receivers, the Seminole secondary of Earl Little Jr. and company will be all over the field making plays.

The FSU offense will keep its momentum moving forward by establishing the run game early against a mediocre Wahoo defense. Castellanos will run just enough to keep them guessing, and the FSU running back platoon will shred their defense, especially since they will be concerned with the reverses and end-arounds the Noles will throw at them. There will also continue to be several explosive passing plays by Castellanos to his receivers and tight ends (finally) due to a secondary that has yet to see the speed that FSU will bring.

I think the game will be in garbage time by the middle of the 4th quarter, and the Noles starters will be able to rotate out and give the second, and maybe even some third, team players some meaningful snaps.

FSU Seminoles 45, Hoos Wahoos 20

Just like everybody expected — undefeated No. 8 FSU’s first major test on defense being the high-flying Virginia Cavaliers.

While Virginia dropped the one game it’s had so far against a team with a pulse (NC State), it has put up impressive numbers so far through both the air and ground. FSU’s defense has been a brick wall for the bulk of three games this season, but it has shown a tendency to allow a big play on occasion. Can the Cavaliers hit enough of them to make up the difference? Methinks the answer is no, though points won’t be hard to come by in this one. Florida State breaks away officially halfway through the third, covering and setting up a major meeting in Tallahassee to open up October.

Florida State Seminoles vs. Virginia Cavaliers

Pre-Game Coverage from Tomahawk Nation

Florida State Seminoles vs. Virginia Cavaliers: How to watch

FSU Broadcast: CH. 161/193/SXM App