Staff Predictions: No. 25 Florida State Seminoles vs. Pitt Panthers

The 25th-ranked Florida State Seminoles host the Pitt Panthers as 10.5-point favorites on Saturday, as they try to bounce back from their 2nd-straight loss and their first defeat at home this season. The Seminoles (3-2, 0-2 ACC) will be attempting to win their first ACC Conference football matchup in over one year, since last beating California in September of 2024. The kick off at Doak Campbell Stadium is scheduled for high Noon, and will be televised on ESPN.

In the Noles’ two losses this year against Virginia and Miami, FSU committed 8 total turnovers and lost six. Those 6 turnovers likely cost FSU the chance to be undefeated at this point, resulting in the Seminoles losing those 2 games by a total combined 14-point margin. Another Seminole loss on Saturday against Pitt would result in Mike Norvell’s fifth career 3-game losing streak as FSU’s head coach.

Pitt (3-2, 1-1 ACC), coming in under 11th-year head coach Pat Narduzzi, leads the all-time series 6-5 over FSU, but this is just the fourth ACC meeting between Pitt and the Noles. The teams last met in 2023 when the No. 4 Seminoles won at Pittsburgh, 24-7.

After starting the year with RS sophomore Eli Holstein at quarterback, Pitt made a change before its 48-7 win over Boston College last week, turning to true freshman Mason Heintschel, who threw for four touchdowns and 323 yards in the win. Previously, Pitt defeated Duquesne and Central Michigan, while losing to Louisville and in overtime to West Virginia.

The Panthers rank 48th in total offense, 15th in passing, and 109th in rushing, averaging just 116 yards per game on the ground. However, Pitt is averaging 41 points per game, ranking 12th in the FBS for scoring offense.

FSU’s defense is ranked 27th in total defense (304), 30th in rushing defense (109), and 48th in passing yards allowed (196).

The Seminole offense, which ranks second nationally in rushing offense (295), third in total offense (561 ypg), and fifth in scoring offense (46.8 ppg), will be facing a Pitt defense ranked 2nd in rushing defense, T-37th in scoring defense, 22nd in total defense, and 81st in passing yards allowed.

TRIVIA: FSU head coach Mike Norvell’s resume includes one season at Pitt, where he served as co-offensive coordinator and wide receivers coach in 2011.

According to FanDuel, FSU is a 10.5-point favorite, with the over/under set at 58.5 points.

As we await the kickoff, enjoy some highlights from FSU and Pitt’s last meeting in 2023.

Saturday will tell us everything we need to know for the rest of the season. Coming off its toughest two-game stretch of the season, FSU has a major opportunity to come out swinging and show that it’s much closer to the team we saw play excellent complementary football against Bama. The other direction is a team that quits on Mike Norvell, which would spell doom for the rest of the season.

We know that as Castellanos goes, so goes the Seminoles’ offense. I’m hopeful we see an early establishment of the ground game and a running back rotation that actually makes sense and rides the hot hand, less cutesy play-calling and head-scratching decisions at inopportune times, and sustained drives where FSU can get ahead of the chains.

On defense, I’m hoping to see a bounce back from the secondary and more Amaree Williams on the pass rush.

At this point, I didn’t know what to expect. Down to down, FSU should probably be 5-0. But we continue to play awful situational football, a theme that has been true under Coach Norvell for essentially his entire tenure. Things like settling for field goals inside the 7-yard line, going for it on 4th and 8 from near the 50, catching a punt on your own 4-yard line, and turning the ball over in plus territory are things that get you beat. And while the players change, we see those plays over and over again.

Will it change this week? It better, if FSU wants to avoid a three-game losing streak. Pitt has an aggressive defense and a freshman QB who has plenty of arm talent. I’d feel great if you told me our defense would dial up exotic blitzes all game long to confuse a guy in his first collegiate road start. But where’s the evidence that it will happen?

If the ‘Noles jump out to an early 10-0 or 14-3 lead, we have the running game to win comfortably. But I don’t see that happening.

Florida State 34, Pitt 31 in OT

In what now seems to be the most difficult three-game stretch of the FSU season, the Seminoles take on a Pitt team this Saturday that is much better than its 3-2 record indicates. The Panthers recently made a quarterback change, and true freshman Mason Heintschel lit up Boston College for 359 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions en route to a 48-7 romp. Pitt also plays exceptional run defense — the only team in the country not allowing 2 yards or more per rush (1.9) — and has yet to give up a point in the first quarter.

All this is to say that there will be no “get right” game for Florida State after losing two in a row. The Panthers, like FSU, are a couple of meltdowns away from being 5-0. The last time the two sides met, Pitt could have (should have) raced out to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter.

But while a talented Pat Narduzzi team will be coming to Tallahassee, and the -10.5 line is way too high, the Seminoles will take this one in a high-scoring affair. Although the Pitt run defense has been excellent, I’ll trust Gus Malzahn to find a way to get the Seminole ground game going. Pitt has also been able to stretch the ball down the field with their vertical passing game, but Tony White should be able to create some exotic pressure looks to confuse Heintschel in his first career road start.

The Noles lack elite talent, which is part of the reason why they fell to a top-5 Miami team and could not overcome early mistakes against Virginia. However, against the majority of opponents, FSU’s veteran playmakers and creative coaching staff can create enough mismatches to secure victories. Win but no cover.

On offense, avoid killer turnovers, and on defense, don’t let a true freshman look like a Heisman contender. Win those, and Norvell’s Noles stop the bleeding.

Five games into the season, FSU is where it was expected to be with a 3-2 record. The path to get there, though, was unexpected. As great as the 3-0 start was, the two recent losses have sent the fanbase hurtling back to Earth and put a lot of pressure on this week’s game. Lose here, and people may start jumping off the bandwagon again and quit watching. Regrettably, it will be something to monitor.

Pitt freshman QB Mason Heintschel looked great last week against Boston College. I don’t think he’ll have quite the same level of success in a hostile atmosphere for his first road start.

Well, it’s a bit of a do-or-die situation for the morale of the program. After riding high the first month of the season, the Seminoles have hit a brick wall. Saturday will tell us a lot about the team and the direction of the program. Pitt’s offense and QB were impressive last week. Can FSU’s defense step up? I hope so.

Those three turnovers in each of the Noles’ last 2 losses are unacceptable. No one can know for sure if, without those turnovers, FSU would have won one or both of the last 2 games. But most stats will prove that turning it over 3 times per game is a pretty safe bet to lose.

This game will not be close and could be in garbage time by the beginning of the 4th quarter. Pitt’s rushing defense #2 ranking is irrelevant because they have not seen a running back platoon like the one they will face Saturday. The FSU rushing attack will open up the passing game for Castellanos to shred one of the worst-ranked passing defenses in the nation.

FSU Seminoles 41, Pittie Kitties 24

Even though FSU is sitting pretty much where most expected before the season, this matchup feels like a defining moment for how this year will be perceived. The difference between 4-2 and maintaining a top 25 ranking vs. a third-straight loss (eighth-straight in the conference) is monumental, especially considering what still could be at stake if Florida State can run through the gimme games remaining on the slate.

It’s not going to be an easy win, especially if Mason Heintschel turns out to be legit and if Pat Narduzzi is able to scheme up enough chaos to keep Tommy Castellanos uncomfortable, but in the end, the small things that led to major consequences the last two weeks are cleaned up, complementary football is finally played and FSU manages to get back on track.

Florida State Seminoles vs. Pitt Panthers

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Florida State Seminoles vs. Pitt Panthers: How to watch