Week 1 of the 2025 college football season has come and gone. Well almost. All that’s left is a primetime matchup between North Carolina and TCU Monday night.
Every other Big 12 Conference program has played at least one game this season now, and all played a game this past weekend — Week 1.
A measured approach to college football analysis would suggest that no conclusions be made after just one game played (or in the case of Iowa State, Kansas and Kansas State, two games).
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It can take weeks, especially in the transfer portal era of the sport, for teams to figure out who and what they are.
We are going to ignore that and the measured approach here, though. College football is back in full swing and we are going to have some fun with it. When all or most of these overreactions are proven wrong (probably by as soon as next week), the measured approach might return.
So without further ado, here are some overreactions to what we’ve seen from Big 12 teams this season.
Devon Dampier is a genuine Heisman Trophy candidate
Based off the most recent odds this might not actually be an overreaction, but Devon Dampier was nothing short of awesome in his first game as a Ute.
The New Mexico transfer did just about everything right and is perhaps more evidence that offensive coordinators and their quarterbacks should be package deals in the transfer portal going forward.
Dampier completed 21 of 25 passes for 206 yards and two touchdowns and also ran for 87 yards and another score. Great numbers overall and his accuracy throwing the football was notable.
But more than just the numbers, every time Dampier touched the ball it seemed like he could do no wrong. Everything he did felt electric.
Because of that, and given Utah is going to have to be creative on offense with both injuries and lack of depth/talent at the offensive skill positions (wide receiver mostly), Dampier is going to be asked to be special every week. After the UCLA game, it sure feels like he will be, special enough even that he will be a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate.
Kansas is the team to beat. Or maybe it’s Arizona
UCLA is bad folks. Real bad. Trending to be one of, if not the worst Power conference teams in college football. Which is why Utah isn’t the team to beat — yet — in the Big 12.
As for BYU, until the Cougars defeat an FBS team it feels premature to tab them as the favorite.
No, right now the favorite in the Big 12 should be the Kansas Jayhawks. Or maybe the Arizona Wildcats.
There is reasoning behind the madness.
Kansas has played two games already and handled both its opponents — Fresno State last week and Wagner this weekend. Fresno State has since gone on to pummel a Georgia Southern team that was expected to be one of the better ones in the Group of Five this year, meaning it already looks like Kansas has beaten a good FBS team and did so in convincing fashion.
Known for offense and quarterback Jalon Daniels, the Jayhawks have been stout defensively too. They look legitimately good. Almost like they were expected to be last year.
As for Arizona, well the Wildcats handled Hawai’i in their season opener, the same Hawai’i team that beat Stanford the week before. Stanford isn’t a good football team, but Hawai’i showed some flashes against the Cardinal, only to have those disappear completely against the Wildcats.
Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita was solid, good even, but it was defense that was the key for Arizona. All of a sudden, it looks as though the Wildcats (and Jayhawks) have the ideal set up with a dynamic veteran QB flanked by talented skill position players and a stout defense.
Kansas State is this year’s Oklahoma State
KSU is trending in the wrong direction. And more and more it feels like the Wildcats are going to be this year’s Oklahoma State. A team believed to be good that turned out to be pretty awful, for a variety of reasons.
Entering this season, Kansas State was projected to be one of the best teams in the Big 12 (like OSU was in 2024). And yet, through two games KSU hasn’t looked like a good team at all.
First there was the loss to Iowa State in Ireland, a game in which Kansas State never really looked good. Maybe not even once.
This past weekend, in a victory, Kansas State was largely outplayed by North Dakota. Not North Dakota State or South Dakota State or South Dakota, teams that were all ranked in the top 5 of the FCS before the season.
No the Wildcats were outplayed for most of the game by a North Dakota team that wasn’t even ranked in the top 25 and has been handled by FBS teams for the last decade-plus, including Utah State in 2021.
Never mind that Chris Klieman has an enviable track record as a head coach. Never mind that Kansas State has won eight or more games in seven of the last 10 seasons.
There just seems to be something missing for the Wildcats this year and it is going to lead to a lot of defeats.
BYU is going to have the best defense in the league and it won’t be close
Portland State was shut out 42-0 by Tarleton State. That happened in Week 0. So BYU’s 69-0 shutout of the Vikings wasn’t exactly unprecedented or even all that surprising.
What it was, though, was a display of why the Cougars will be the best defensive team in the Big 12 this season.
Before this goes further, that doesn’t mean teams like Utah, Kansas, Baylor or whomever else won’t have great defenses this year.
BYU’s will just be slightly better.
The Cougars were that dominant against Portland State.
Let’s look at a few stats:
- As a team, Portland State averaged negative yardage per carry (-0.1).
- Focus solely on the Vikings’ best running back, Jacques Badolato-Birdsell, and BYU gave up less than 2.5 yards per carry.
- Only one of Portland State’s seven players who had a reception caught a pass that went more than 10 yards.
- Perhaps the most encouraging thing? No BYU defender finished with more than three tackles. It was a complete team effort, which bodes well for the rest of the season.
Again, it was Portland State, but there was enough shown by the Cougars to believe that BYU’s defense will be the best in the conference this season.
Colorado will ruin some seasons, but the Buffaloes won’t be contending
Georgia Tech isn’t the only team that will beat Colorado this season. CU looks vulnerable this season, definitely more so than a year ago.
The Buffaloes couldn’t stop the run against the Yellow Jackets, giving up nearly seven yards per carry. They weren’t much better against the pass, allowing 11 yards per reception.
New quarterback Kaidon Salter could not throw the ball effectively with any kind of consistency and he wasn’t dynamic enough with his legs to where that didn’t matter.
And yet, watching Colorado against Georgia Tech, you couldn’t help but come away thinking the Buffs will ruin someone’s season later this year.
With a defense that isn’t close to being good yet, Colorado shouldn’t win more than six or seven games. But the Buffaloes ran the ball well and forced multiple turnovers, while taking care of the ball themselves.
All of that suggest Colorado is going to catch a team or two off guard, and grind out an upset win in conference play.
For now at least it feels like the high flying days of Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter are definitely gone, but it isn’t place is going to be a team that frustrates opponents and gets a few.
Of the three of Cincinnati, Houston and UCF, one will be far better than the others
This is completely a gut feeling, based on nothing objective. But Houston is going to be far and away better than Cincinnati or UCF this season, looking the part of power conference school for the first time — for real — since joining the Big 12.
Cincinnati arguably had the best showing of Week 1 between the three teams, even in a loss to Nebraska.
UCF won its home opener against Jacksonville State, a program that has had recent success.
But it is Houston, under Willie Fritz, that will be the best of that group.
The Cougars defeated Stephen F. Austin in their home opener, which isn’t anything spectacular. Both Cincinnati and UCF faced better competition.
It was the way Houston did it, though. The Cougars were just a much better team than their competition, in every facet of the game. And that was with Texas A&M transfer QB Conner Weigman not playing particularly well or efficiently.
It really feels like the program is going to take a turn for the better in 2025, after two straight 4-8 seasons. Good enough of a turn for a bowl game is in Houston’s future and maybe even eight or nine wins.
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