Social Security COLA 2026: When will the increase be announced? How the government shutdown could impact plans

Social Security recipients typically learn the next year’s cost of living adjustment, or COLA, in mid-October. The ongoing government shutdown could delay that announcement, however.

There are two scenarios facing Social Security and Supplemental Security Income beneficiaries. The first is the government reopens soon and the COLA is announced on Oct. 15. The other is that the shutdown continues and beneficiaries will be required to wait to find out how much they will receive.

There are some 72.5 million Social Security recipients in the U.S. – 69 million traditional Social Security beneficiaries and another 7.5 million Supplemental Security Income or a combination of the both.

Here is information on the two scenarios:

Government reopens

If the government reopens before mid-October, the agency will announce the 2026 COLA after the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its inflation report.

COLA is determined by the percentage increase in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W, for the third quarter of the year (July, August and September). That figure is compiled and then compared to the CPI-W for the same period the previous year. The year-over-year difference is the new COLA payable in the coming year.

Latest projections predict the 2026 COLA will be 2.6%, only 0.1% higher than 2025’s increase of 2.5% and the second lowest adjustment since 2021 when it was 1.3%.

If that figure holds, the average Social Security beneficiary would receive an additional $54 per month.

Shutdown continues

Here’s where things could get tricky.

Determining the 2026 COLA depends on data from the Labor Department. The department’s detailed shutdown plans show all but one of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ 2,055 employees have been furloughed. Only BLS commissioner, acting chief William Wiatrowski, a presidential appointee, is exempt from furlough.

That means there won’t be anyone there to process the data used to determine the COLA.

The bureau’s shutdown plans reference the issue.

“A delay of the CPI release during October of each year might have an impact on the Cost of Living Adjustment announcement by the Social Security Administration,” the agency’s plan said.

While the COLA announcement will have to wait, beneficiaries still receive their payments during the shutdown. Social Security benefits are considered mandatory spending and funding for the program has been approved by Congress without an expiration date.

There will be impacts, however. Roughly 12% of the agency’s 51,825 employees are furloughed and things like benefits verification, Freedom of Information requests, replacement of Medicare cards and processing of overpayments are all on hold.