County election officials around Washington state began releasing vote tallies Tuesday evening.
So far, early results indicate that a slate of progressive newcomers will face off against moderate incumbents in several key Seattle races this November. King County’s government will see a changing of the guard. Property taxes are probably going up in those areas, too.
And, in a handful of closely watched legislative races, incumbents were mostly leading their challenges. This year’s primary election features only local races — mayors, city councils, state legislative seats, levy proposals — and officials predicted low voter turnout, which tends to happen in years when there aren’t big, splashy races like president or governor on the ballot.
Progressives were hoping President Trump’s federal moves would swing local voters in the opposite direction — and so far that appears to be happening. Conservatives counted on state-level Democratic tax hikes to push a few open state Senate seats to the Republican or moderate column — but that didn’t look likely Tuesday night.
More ballot counts will be released in the coming days, and the Secretary of State will certify the final election results on Aug. 22.
For now, here’s a breakdown of the major takeaways from the first ballot drop.
1) Seattle moderates fight to keep power
In initial results of 98,339 ballots counted, or just under 20% of registered voters, progressive political newcomers surpassed the incumbents.
Seattle’s mayor, city attorney, and council president were all lagging behind, indicating a tough fight as they move on to the general election in November. When this trio of moderates was elected in 2021, they focused on addressing disorder in the forms of homeless encampments, criminal case backlogs and a shortage of Seattle police officers. Now, each will likely face a runoff with a challenger who represents a potential progressive backlash to the last several years of centrist city policy.
Mayor Bruce Harrell’s race is by far the closest of the three incumbents as of primary night. His opponent, longtime progressive activist Katie Wilson, received 46.21% of the vote, with Harrell in second place at 44.86%.
Harrell is endorsed by dozens of elected leaders including Governor Bob Ferguson, as well as powerful labor organizations like MLK Labor and SEIU 775. Outside donors including banks and developers have also spent money to aid his campaign.
Katie Wilson is the executive director of the Transit Riders Union. She’s endorsed by state Sen. Rebecca Saldaña (D-Seattle) and former Seattle City Councilmember Tammy Morales, as well as local Democratic organizations and The Urbanist.
Wilson’s campaign generated new excitement when Zohran Mamdani, a Democratic Socialist, won the mayoral primary in New York City in June. Then last week, the Northwest Progressive Institute, a left-leaning pollster, reported its findings that the mayor’s race was in a statistical dead heat and that other progressive challengers appeared headed for a strong showing.
Harrell is trying for a second term – Seattle voters haven’t reelected their mayor in 20 years.
City Attorney Ann Davison had the weakest showing of the three incumbents in initial results, with 37.20% of the vote to her challenger Erika Evans’ commanding 51.13%.
Davison won the nonpartisan race for city attorney in 2021 in a surprise upset after a failed bid for lieutenant governor as a Republican the year before. She said party affiliation is “irrelevant” in this nonpartisan race, and she’s been focused on reducing case backlogs and addressing the impact of the 118 people who had each generated thousands of criminal referrals. Davison has also sued to recover funding rescinded by the Trump administration.
Evans has worked as a prosecutor in both the Seattle City Attorney’s office and as an assistant U.S. attorney. She has expressed support for more alternatives to prosecution, and pledged to revive the city’s community court program and to aggressively challenge the politics of the Trump administration.
City Council President Sara Nelson, who occupies the citywide Position 9 seat, also lagged behind her challenger Dionne Foster. Nelson had 39.10% of the vote to Foster’s 53.69%.
Nelson has focused on expanding drug treatment for people in crisis, and on supporting small businesses. She is endorsed by fellow council members Joy Hollingsworth, Rob Saka, Bob Kettle, Maritza Rivera and Mark Solomon.
Her likely opponent, Dionne Foster, is a former policy advisor for the city and has served as an adjunct professor at UW School of Social Work. As a nonprofit leader she supported the passage of the state’s capital gains tax. She’s endorsed by the current city council’s most progressive member, Alexis Mercedes Rinck, and by Councilmember Dan Strauss.
These three races are setting up what has become a familiar Seattle pairing – all three moderate incumbents have been endorsed by the Seattle Times, while all three progressive challengers leading in these initial results were endorsed by The Stranger newspaper.
2) End of an era in King County
Two King County councilmembers emerged as clear frontrunners to be the next county executive, running many crucial services such as the jail, sheriff’s department and metro buses. It’s the first time in 16 years the seat has been open after longtime incumbent Dow Constantine left to take a job as CEO of Sound Transit.
Girmay Zahilay had a hefty lead on election night, with 40%, and Claudia Balducci was second with 30%. A number of other candidates, including GOP-endorsed Derek Chartrand and County Assessor John Arthur Wilson – who suspended his campaign last month after he was arrested on investigation of stalking his ex-fiancee – will not advance to November.
RELATED: King County Assessor John Wilson suspends county executive campaign following stalking arrest
There’s not an obvious difference between Zahilay, who represents parts of Seattle and South King County on the county council, and Balducci, who represents the Eastside. They’re both Democrats who want to juice housing construction by cutting bureaucratic red tape and allowing for more density. Balducci wants to expand light rail quicker, but Zahilay has more detailed policy plans on expanding childcare subsidies and “protect[ing] King County from the Trump administration” on his website.
Zahilay appeared to be the frontrunner. He’s raised nearly a million dollars and snagged endorsements from prominent Democrats, including Gov. Bob Ferguson and Seattle’s representatives in Congress, Pramila Jayapal and Adam Smith. Balducci has raised over $700,00 and been endorsed by South Sound Congresswoman Marilyn Strickland.
Zahilay released a celebratory statement after early counting Tuesday night.
“While there are still thousands of votes left to be counted, it is clear that our campaign decisively won the primary and will advance to the November general election,” said Zahilay, who came to Seattle from Sudan as a child of refugees.
He called the results a “historic victory.”
Balducci pointed out in a press release that 30% of voters picked a candidate who lost the primary and are “up for grabs,” a number that’s more than the margin between her and Zahilay.
“I’ve spent decades building up experience, partnerships, and political capital and I plan to spend every cent of it in this office because this isn’t a stepping stone for me,” Balducci wrote.
Zahilay was seen as the more left-wing candidate, despite the fact that he and Balducci are both Democrats and align on many issues. Zahilay joined a number of other local elected officials pushing the state to let them raise property and sales taxes earlier this year, and Balducci didn’t. Zahilay also called to shut down the youth jail when he ran for county council in 2019, but then voted for a nonbinding motion last year to keep it open.
3) Property taxes likely to rise
Property taxes for residents of Seattle, and King County more broadly, are likely to go up slightly, as voters looked poised to approve two levies.
In Seattle, Proposition 1, a measure to renew the city’s Democracy Voucher program, was up by 11 points on Tuesday night. The program sends four $25 coupons to each voter, aiming to boost small donations to local candidates. Critics argued that the program is costly to operate and little used. The renewed levy would cost the median homeowner in Seattle $12.20 a year.
King County’s Proposition 1 renews another property tax to fund improvements and maintenance to hundreds of county parks and trails. The measure was up by 40 points on Tuesday. If the levy is renewed, a median homeowner in King County can expect to pay roughly $200 a year.
4) Legislative incumbents lead competitors
Heading into Tuesday’s election, the big question for state legislative races was whether there’d be a backlash against a big tax hike Democrats passed earlier this year – and whether that would give Republicans and pro-business Democrats a chance to shake things up. After ballots dropped, though, progressive incumbents looked likely to move on to the general election.
Nine seats appeared on ballots across the state thanks to vacancies left by their previous occupants. Nine Democrats were appointed to those seats and now have to defend them if they want to continue serving. Three were unchallenged, though, and two were likely to see the incumbents sail through to the general election.
That left four races in question.
26th Legislative District – Senate
The race to represent the 26th District in the state Senate was tight between Democratic incumbent Deborah Krishnadasan and Republican Michelle Caldier, who’s currently representing the district in the state House. Both candidates will progress to the general election in November, which will be a nailbiter if Tuesday’s numbers hold. Krishnadasan and Caldier were within a percentage point of each other, with Caldier slightly ahead as of 8:45 p.m.
Krishnadasan, who previously served on the Peninsula School Board, was appointed to the state Senate position when her fellow Democrat Emily Randall was elected to the U.S. House last year. Krishnadasan will have to win this election to continue serving in the role.
And that’s not guaranteed. The 26th, which covers the Key Peninsula up into Gig Harbor and north to Bremerton, is a split district. It’s represented by both parties in the state House; in addition to Rep. Caldier, the district is also represented in the House by Democratic Rep. Adison Richards.
Caldier has represented the district on the House side since 2014, winning with strong margins since 2016, and may be Republicans’ best bet to flip a seat in their favor this year.
5th Legislative District – Senate
Meanwhile, the Senate race in the 5th Legislative District was also tight Tuesday night. Democratic incumbent Victoria Hunt was ahead by about 1,400 votes against Republican challenger Chad Magendanz. Both candidates will proceed to the general election, but this could be another close race until the end.
The district is in eastern King County, covering Maple Valley, Renton, and Issaquah, among others.
Hunt was just appointed to the Senate seat in June, after Sen. Bill Ramos died unexpectedly. Before that, Hunt had been elected to the state House last year.
Magendanz is a former two-term state representative for the district. He ran unsuccessfully against Ramos for the seat he is once again running for. But the race between Ramos and Magendanz was fairly close. Less than 3,500 votes made the difference in Ramos’ favor.
48th Legislative District – Senate
The 48th Legislative District — which encompasses Redmond, Bellevue, and Kirkland — is the setting for an intraparty squabble. Incumbent Vandana Slatter is facing off against fellow Democrat Amy Walen. On Tuesday night, Slatter had a healthy lead over her competitor, with about 59% of the vote to Walen’s 38%.
And it’s not the first time they’ve both sought the seat, which was left vacant when Patty Kuderer was elected state insurance commissioner. Both Slatter and Walen, then colleagues in the state House, put their names forward to replace Kuderer. Slatter was chosen by local Democrats and the King County Council for the appointment, so Walen decided to take the matter to voters.
Slatter is the more progressive of the two, while Walen is seen as a pro-business moderate, opposing things like a gas tax increase, which Slatter supported.
33rd Legislative District – House
The House race in the 33rd District is yet another arena for Democratic in-fighting that could pit more progressive members of the party against moderates. Incumbent Rep. Edwin Obras was picked to fill the seat after Tina Orwall was appointed to fill a vacancy in the state Senate (yeah, there’s been a lot of that going on); Orwall is now running unopposed to keep the 33rd’s Senate seat.
Now, Obras is facing fellow Democrat Kevin Schilling, who’s currently the mayor of Burien. The district covers east Burien, SeaTac, and parts of Kent, Tukwila and Renton. While both Obras and Schilling are Democrats, Schilling leans more conservative. He’s pushed to expand bans on camping outside in his city and frequently butted heads with King County officials.
Republican Darryl Jones is also running, but was in third place Tuesday night with just about 24% of votes. Obras had about 43% of the vote Tuesday night, and Schilling had about 32%.
5) Not a lot of people voted
As of Tuesday night, voter turnout was under 20% in King County.
By the time all votes are tallied, King County Elections officials expect turnout to tick up to 35% – not great, but better than it was in 2023 or in 2015, the year before Trump’s first presidential win.
Ben Anderstone, a political consultant who works with mostly Democrats, expects turnout to be closer to 33% this year.
“You could argue it’s a little bit weak for an election with mayor on the ballot and at a time when people are really tuned-in politically,” Anderstone said.
In 2015, turnout in King County was a tepid 25%. That jumped by a whopping nine points in the 2017 primary, nine months after Trump’s first election. It stayed around there for the next four years, as Democrats won local Senate seats to take control of the Legislature and progressives swept into Seattle City Hall.
In 2023, turnout dropped back down to 30%, which is more typical – but progressives were hoping Trump’s second administration would pump turnout back up.
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