Bitcoin’s performance is squashing hopes for an “Uptober,” the nickname traders have given to October, a month where bitcoin has seen, on average, a roughly 20% jump in price since 2013.
The largest cryptocurrency, bitcoin, now sits at $109,954 as of 10:30 a.m. Friday, an 8% drawdown from October 1, when it was trading at the $118,500 level, per CoinGecko. The last time bitcoin had a negative price performance in October occurred in 2018, data from CoinGlass shows.
Analysts at blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant pointed to a noticeable slowdown in US investor demand for bitcoin, both in spot and derivative markets.
“ETF inflows, spot exchange premiums, and futures basis metrics all indicate reduced enthusiasm from US institutions and retail investors alike, suggesting that the current phase reflects profit taking and cautious positioning rather than renewed accumulation,” according to a CryptoQuant report shared with Sherwood News.
On Thursday, $488.4 million flowed out of spot bitcoin ETFs trading in the US, bringing the weekly total of outflows to $607 million, per SoSoValue.
Treasury firms slowing
Maksim Tkachuk, an analyst at market intelligence platform Santiment, added that bitcoin treasuries are easing up on their acquisitions, which is not helping with the token’s downward pressure.
The last five treasury announcements of bitcoin-vacuuming juggernaut Strategy ranged from 168 tokens acquired to as high as 850 tokens amassed, a massive slowdown from the first five updates at the beginning of 2025, which averaged 6,468 bitcoin.
Tkachuk told Sherwood, “We might see some kind of bounce in November but overall I don’t expect the situation with treasury [companies] to change much.”
Nicholas Roberts-Huntley, CEO and cofounder of Blueprint Finance, believes bitcoin could retest the $1130,000 ceiling going into 2026, but told Sherwood that execution matters and “these targets assume clear Fed guidance, sustained inflows, and no major macro shocks.”
Waiting for new catalysts
Whether bitcoin is $106,000 or $125,000, it has transformed into a “boomer coin or an institutional coin” because the only people piling in are liquid and capable of finding new conviction, argued Jacob Martin, general partner of seed-stage venture firm 2 Punks Capital.
The lack of an “Uptober” stems from how “everyone else, normies, and hodlers… literally aren’t liquid enough to be buying anymore,” Martin told Sherwood.
Finally, CryptoQuant’s research note stated, “Market participants are waiting for new catalysts before re-engaging with risk.”
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