Based on his solid strikeout rate, elite walk rate, high volume of ground balls (45 percent rate on balls in play), and his ability to limit hard contact, advanced statistics suggest Gray’s ERA was inflated by bad luck and bad defense last year. Also of note for a pitcher who is about to reside in Fenway Park: Gray was one of the better starters in baseball at limiting fly balls to the pull side by righthanded hitters last season, with just 13 percent of balls put in play by righties against him being in the air to left field.
“He really understands what he’s doing. He’s incredibly thoughtful about the art of pitching, both in terms of the arsenal and how to create different shapes, how to build an arsenal and create stuff that can get hitters out, and then also how to battle out there and how to pitch — the cat and mouse game,” said Cardinals president of baseball operations — and former Red Sox chief baseball officer — Chaim Bloom. “He’s top shelf at all those things. These guys that pitch at a high level into their mid-30s so far, it doesn’t happen by accident. And being around him, I was able to see why.”
The 2025 season represented the continuation of a strong three-year run since Gray introduced a cutter. Over the last three seasons, Gray is 35-25 with a 3.63 ERA, 27 percent strikeout rate, and 6 percent walkout rate. He’s been one of the more durable pitchers in baseball, having averaged a little more than 30 starts and 177 innings per season during that span.
Over 13 big league seasons, Gray is 133-102 with a 3.58 ERA and a 24 percent strikeout rate. In six career playoff starts, he has a 3.26 ERA in 30⅓ innings.
Gray was entering the final season of a three-year, $75 million deal that would have paid him a $35 million salary in 2026 with a $30 million team option for 2027 and a $5 million buyout. Gray and the Red Sox reworked the deal to guarantee the pitcher $31 million for 2026, with a $30 million mutual option that includes a $10 million buyout.
Mutual options are almost always bought out, meaning that Gray will receive $41 million for the 2026 season. In deference to that, the Cardinals are sending $20 million to the Red Sox in the deal. As a result, the Sox will pay Gray $21 million — $11 million in salary this year, then $10 million on the buyout — with an average annual value for luxury tax-purposes of a little less than $21 million.
Clarke, 22, was a fifth-rounder in 2024 who dazzled at the start of the 2025 season while combining high-90s fastballs and a wipeout sweeper. But after he overwhelmed hitters in Low-A to start the year (0.93 ERA, 17 strikeouts, 2 walks in 9⅓ innings), he struggled with control (18 percent walk rate), results (5.08 ERA), and blisters that limited him to 38 innings for the year.
He has huge upside if he can harness his command, but his likeliest big league role will be out of the bullpen. The Sox had made Clarke available in trade discussions at this year’s deadline.
Fitts, 25, was 2-4 with a 5.00 ERA in 45 innings for the Red Sox last season. He showed immense promise entering the 2025 season but landed on the injured list twice — in April, when he suffered a right pectoral strain, and at the end of the year when he was shut down because of neuritis. He is expected to be healthy for the 2026 season. The Cardinals expect Fitts to compete for a rotation spot in spring training, and see Clarke as a shoot-the-moon talent as they try to stockpile future contributors.
The Red Sox — who entered the offseason professing a need to add a No. 2 starter and middle-of-the-order bat — now have a bat as their top priority, while taking an opportunistic approach to adding to other parts of the roster (whether a second bat, a trade for another starter — albeit with a thinning farm system, or bullpen upgrades).
With the addition of Gray, one major league source suggested the Red Sox are unlikely to pursue top free agent starting pitchers, given the expectation that they will need to spend heavily to add a bat —whether Alex Bregman or the pursuit of free agents such as Pete Alonso or Kyle Schwarber.
Alex Speier can be reached at alex.speier@globe.com. Follow him @alexspeier.
