While much of New England was sleeping Tuesday night, the Red Sox’ chances of returning to the postseason got a huge boost out west.
The Astros lost to the Athletics, 5-1, in West Sacramento, dropping Houston — the top runner-up in the American League wild card race — to two games behind the Red Sox, who beat Toronto, 4-1, earlier in the night. Because the Red Sox own the tiebreaker over Houston (Boston won four of six games between the clubs this season), it’s effectively a three-game lead with five games to go.
With Tuesday’s developments, Boston’s magic number to clinch a postseason spot is three (a combination of Red Sox wins and Astros losses, as of now).
The AL playoff picture is complicated and convoluted with five days left in the season, but it boils down to this: the Blue Jays, Mariners and Yankees have clinched spots and three more teams will join them out of a four-team group that includes Cleveland, Boston, Detroit and Houston.
For now, Toronto (one-game lead), Cleveland (tied but hold tiebreaker) and Seattle (four-game lead) are in command of the divisions while the Yankees hold the top wild card spot, three games above the Red Sox, who are in second place in the wild card race. The Tigers are one game below the Red Sox and will likely have the tiebreaker if those teams end up even; Detroit swept a three-game series at Comerica Park in May and the teams face off at Fenway Park this weekend. You can see the standings below.
KEY TAKEAWAYS:
*** The Red Sox can clinch a postseason spot as early as Thursday night if they get a combination of wins and Astros losses that adds up to three. On Wednesday, Boston will face Toronto at 7:07 p.m. ET while Houston faces the A’s at 10:05 p.m. Both teams have their aces going (Garrett Crochet and Hunter Brown).
Effectively, the Red Sox have a three-game lead with five games to go. Going 3-2 against Toronto and Detroit, regardless of how other clubs play, would guarantee a spot. If the Red Sox win just two of their next five, Houston would have to win out (5-0).
*** Boston is not technically eliminated in the division race (Toronto is four games ahead) but a Blue Jays win either Wednesday or Thursday would do it. It’s also an uphill battle for the Red Sox to get home-field advantage in a potential Wild Card series because they trail the Yankees by three games for the first wild card spot. New York’s magic number over Boston is four.
*** Whoever wins the East between Toronto and New York will have a bye to the ALDS, along with (very likely) the Mariners, who have the second-best record among division leaders by a three-game margin. If the Red Sox, they’ll likely be the second or third wild card club, depending on how they finish. That sets up a best-of-three road series to begin the postseason, starting Tuesday.
As of now, that series would pit the Red Sox (second place) at the Yankees (first place). It’s now likely that Boston, if it clinches, would visit New York, Toronto, Cleveland or Detroit, depending on who wins each division and where the teams fall in the seeding. With how close everything is, that likely won’t be decided until the weekend. The chances are now remote that the Red Sox would have to go to Seattle or Houston next week.
*** It’s very possible, against all odds, that the Tigers will have more to play for this weekend at Fenway than the Red Sox. Just two weeks ago, Detroit had a 9½ game lead in the AL Central and had the best record in the AL. After losing seven in a row, the Tigers now are in second place in the AL Central and hanging on to a wild card spot by one game.
The next two days will determine exactly what the weekend means to both the Red Sox and Tigers but there’s a good chance the Red Sox are simply playing for seeding by Saturday (and Detroit potentially playing for more). Such a scenario could force Boston not to throw Lucas Giolito in Game 162 to make sure he’s available for a potential Game 3 in a Wild Card series. As of now, Crochet is lined up to pitch a Game 1 and Brayan Bello would take Game 2.
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